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November Medium/ Long Range


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4 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

21-22 was less than an inch away from climo at DCA.

It’s not hard to luck your way close to climo when avg is only 14”.  But I said it was a decent year.  It was still below avg snow at all 3 official stations so let’s not pretend it was a good winter. It was just better than most lately but that’s a low bar considering we are in the worst snow drought in recorded history. 

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6 hours ago, JVscotch said:

How many of the neutral years were preceded by El Niños?

None. There aren’t really any good enso and PDO matches. 1993 and 2017 are probably the best but neither was even close to this negative a PDO. 2020 is probably the best combo analog with a decent enso and PDO match but not great. 
 

I’m not sure how much that matters when the PDO is this negative. It’s off the charts. I think it’s driving the bus. 

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32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not sure how much that matters when the PDO is this negative. It’s off the charts. I think it’s driving the bus. 

October Northern Hemisphere H5 has matched the PDO composite almost perfectly.. negative anomaly over Alaska and all. 

2013 is an example of a year where the pattern deviated from the PDO, starting in the Fall, but we are about 180 degrees from what that October looked like at 500mb right now. -PDO years that were good Winters looked Neutral in the Fall, -PDO years that were bad Winters had the Aleutian island ridge and +EPO. 

Solar flux is a new pattern this year though, so I will be interested to see how it goes through the Winter. I think there is a lag for an active sun to the ground pattern. If it results in +NAO like I think, it will either correlate with -PDO and warm us up into the 60s, or it will fluctuate the Pacific pattern, correlating with more -EPO, and actually give us some rather stormy conditions when it gets cold (-epo/+nao). Unfortunately, for that the be a predominant pattern I don't think we want the PDO at -3, with a major +correlation at H5 in the Fall.  The cold shots may be more likely to come in bursts.  (Since 2013, +NAO/-EPO/+PNA vs -NAO/+EPO/-PNA has had about a 0.30 correlation, and 0.40 since 2019.)

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19 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October Northern Hemisphere H5 has matched the PDO composite almost perfectly.. negative anomaly over Alaska and all. 

2013 is an example of a year where the pattern deviated from the PDO, starting in the Fall, but we are about 180 degrees from what that October looked like at 500mb right now. -PDO years that were good Winters looked Neutral in the Fall, -PDO years that were bad Winters had the Aleutian island ridge and +EPO. 

Solar flux is a new pattern this year though, so I will be interested to see how it goes through the Winter. I think there is a lag for an active sun to the ground pattern. If it results in +NAO like I think, it will either correlate with -PDO and warm us up into the 60s, or it will fluctuate the Pacific pattern, correlating with more -EPO, and actually give us some rather stormy conditions when it gets cold (-epo/+nao). Unfortunately, for that the be a predominant pattern I don't think we want the PDO at -3, with a major +correlation at H5 in the Fall.  The cold shots may be more likely to come in bursts.  (Since 2013, +NAO/-EPO/+PNA vs -NAO/+EPO/-PNA has had about a 0.30 correlation, and 0.40 since 2019.)

If the PDO doesn’t chill some were in trouble. It’s damn near impossible to sustain an eastern trough with the PDO hanging out around -3. 

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I do not recall this long a dry stretch for THIS much of the country in my lifetime. Maybe there has been, but it doesn't pop to mind. I think it has been about four weeks for the US from the mississippi river eastward that has been almost completely dry for that long. Saw mention that maybe closest analog was 1871 before the Chicago fire and the horriffic forest fires in northern michigan. In any event, wow, is it dry. 

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2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I do not recall this long a dry stretch for THIS much of the country in my lifetime. Maybe there has been, but it doesn't pop to mind. I think it has been about four weeks for the US from the mississippi river eastward that has been almost completely dry for that long. Saw mention that maybe closest analog was 1871 before the Chicago fire and the horriffic forest fires in northern michigan. In any event, wow, is it dry. 

The only two places east of the Rockies that are above normal in the last 30 days are central Florida (Milton) and central VA (dying gasps of Helene).

191133405_octoberprecip.png.cde3b5a6cba238122231930a7b6ea5e0.png

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2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The only two places east of the Rockies that are above normal in the last 30 days are central Florida (Milton) and central VA (dying gasps of Helene).

191133405_octoberprecip.png.cde3b5a6cba238122231930a7b6ea5e0.png

Wonder when the cactus will start to grow 

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On 10/26/2024 at 6:03 PM, psuhoffman said:

If the PDO doesn’t chill some were in trouble. It’s damn near impossible to sustain an eastern trough with the PDO hanging out around -3. 

The marine heatwave near Japan is wild. Mt Fuji is still brown (or was recently) breaking a 100+ year record. The way we've looked at things for many years, the pdo in its current state is a pretty easy winter cancel feature. I don't disagree much. But the extent and departure from normal is so great, my gut is telling me that it will cause an anomalous surprise downstream (somewhere).

Conventional LR forecasting of the winter hemispheric LW pattern hasn't been working well with man or machine over the last handful of years. Things just aren't lining up and unexpected things keep overwhelming.

So what's it going to be this year? Classic warm east/snow dud nina or something nobody can predict that surprises people? Time will tell. I'm feeling a positive surprise and I'll go down with the ship at this point.  That said, positive surprise doesn't mean 13-14 walking in the door imo lol. More like active enough and cold enough at times to satisfy those who expect a classic dud. Something like that. 

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The marine heatwave near Japan is wild. Mt Fuji is still brown (or was recently) breaking a 100+ year record. The way we've looked at things for many years, the pdo in its current state is a pretty easy winter cancel feature. I don't disagree much. But the extent and departure from normal is so great, my gut is telling me that it will cause an anomalous surprise downstream (somewhere).
Conventional LR forecasting of the winter hemispheric LW pattern hasn't been working well with man or machine over the last handful of years. Things just aren't lining up and unexpected things keep overwhelming.
So what's it going to be this year? Classic warm east/snow dud nina or something nobody can predict that surprises people? Time will tell. I'm feeling a positive surprise and I'll go down with the ship at this point.  That said, positive surprise doesn't mean 13-14 walking in the door imo lol. More like active enough and cold enough at times to satisfy those who expect a classic dud. Something like that. 

I don’t even care about snow. Just give me rain.
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35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

SE ridge to continue for at least 1, probably 2 weeks. 

IMG_6900.thumb.png.d7a8fc232f86e5cc5aeb71a088b4525c.pngIMG_6901.thumb.png.b643c3d80da59f040b8503a17857a72c.png

EPS shows pretty much the same.

Better for it to happen now and November than later?

hopefully its doesnt become part of the furniture for winter.   It always seems to be there even in favorable patterns.  I remember last winter it was there just enough to almost never let the 540 line move south of PA.  

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That ridge is stayin. We want it gone, so she’s gonna set up shop. The stupid optimist in me is hoping it’s setting up for a pattern change close to turkey day. God knows the last time I didn’t wear a tshirt to Thanksgiving dinner, and I live in the damn mountains. Lol

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May get a temporary reprieve from the SE ridge mid-late month, then another pass back through mjo 4-6 late nov through mid Dec. 

IMG_6904.png.3cc510590c8c66bf9cfce466630d7d4d.png

On the plus side, it could possibly set us up for an interesting late Dec/early Jan period when the MJO completes its 4-6 pass. 

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

May get a temporary reprieve from the SE ridge mid-late month, then another pass back through mjo 4-6 late nov through mid Dec. 

IMG_6904.png.3cc510590c8c66bf9cfce466630d7d4d.png

On the plus side, it could possibly set us up for an interesting late Dec/early Jan period when the MJO completes its 4-6 pass. 

Rinse and repeat for Jan and Feb. The SER never gives up that easily.

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56 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

May get a temporary reprieve from the SE ridge mid-late month, then another pass back through mjo 4-6 late nov through mid Dec. 

IMG_6904.png.3cc510590c8c66bf9cfce466630d7d4d.png

On the plus side, it could possibly set us up for an interesting late Dec/early Jan period when the MJO completes its 4-6 pass. 

Oy if we're talking about the MJO already that tells ya where things are, haha MJO! For when nothing else is working and we wanna grasp at straws :D

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18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oy if we're talking about the MJO already that tells ya where things are, haha MJO! For when nothing else is working and we wanna grasp at straws :D

With the marine heat wave off Japan, strong negative PDO, high solar with westerly QBO, and a very warm Atlantic, and a weaker La Nina (stronger is actually better for us) it’s hard to think of any other forcing mechanism that can temporarily shake things up.

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1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

How much are you willing to bet that on November 15th there will have been no pattern change and the board will be hyping up an early December pattern change?

I don't think anybody has been hyping a pattern change in early November, on here at least.  There was some guidance which briefly suggested an improvement after the 1st week of November, but there wasn't any hype, just an observation.

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4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

SE ridge to continue for at least 1, probably 2 weeks. 

IMG_6900.thumb.png.d7a8fc232f86e5cc5aeb71a088b4525c.pngIMG_6901.thumb.png.b643c3d80da59f040b8503a17857a72c.png

EPS shows pretty much the same.

Better for it to happen now and November than later?

But look at that 50/50 trough!  Just kidding, I'll see myself to the door.

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1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

With the marine heat wave off Japan, strong negative PDO, high solar with westerly QBO, and a very warm Atlantic, and a weaker La Nina (stronger is actually better for us) it’s hard to think of any other forcing mechanism that can temporarily shake things up.

Man how long has that dang heatwave been off of Japan anyway? 5 years? Seems like every winter there it is...

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