Hurricane Oscar

[jburns]

39 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Semantics maybe, but I see it as a list of reasons there was insufficient data to classify it. 

Which caused a dropping of the ball.  It happens.  What shouldn’t happen is NHC taking full credit for the forecast when the models get it right but blaming the models when the forecast is wrong.   Not trying to pick a fight here. It is the way I feel about a lot of things.

[ineedsnow]

The eye is clearing out just as Oscar is about to make landfall.. 

[dizzy9479]

Could this emerge south of Cuba and pick up strength again?

[NorthHillsWx]

Man this storm screams underestimated. That sat/radar combination at landfall does not look like a cat 1

[DDweatherman]

53 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Man this storm screams underestimated. That sat/radar combination at landfall does not look like a cat 1

Looked like a 100-110mph storm with an eye present on those last few images as it made this LF on Cuba. 

[Windspeed]

Probably was a Category 2 at landfall. The radar out of Guantanamo Bay had very intense echoes in the eastern and northern eyewall. Cloudtops were cooling, and the eye was clearing. SAR data suggests intensification into landfall; therefore, Oscar will be a good candidate for an upgrade in post analysis in the post-seasonal report.

[NorthHillsWx]

There are some very high end videos from Oscar in Cuba but I am not sure of their authenticity. Definitely seems to be some misinformation out there. I firmly believe this was likely a high end 2, low end 3 especially where that eastern eyewall came ashore due to satellite presentation, pinhole eye and radar plus the lighting that was ongoing through landfall suggesting a quickly strengthening system. Very unfortunate we didn’t get recon but this storm was strengthening quickly into landfall in my opinion. Will there be enough evidence with such a small core for the upgrade?

[GaWx]

 For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET has Oscar get down to its lowest SLP yet (low enough to support a H) later this week after threatening Bermuda:

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR      ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N  75.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 21.10.2024    0  20.3N  75.2W     1004            33
    0000UTC 22.10.2024   12  21.5N  75.0W     1003            31
    1200UTC 22.10.2024   24  23.1N  73.9W     1004            33
    0000UTC 23.10.2024   36  25.2N  71.3W     1000            38
    1200UTC 23.10.2024   48  28.2N  68.0W      997            45
    0000UTC 24.10.2024   60  33.4N  65.2W      990            46
    1200UTC 24.10.2024   72  35.6N  64.0W      980            55
    0000UTC 25.10.2024   84  38.8N  59.3W      983            48
    1200UTC 25.10.2024   96  45.3N  53.2W      984            53
    0000UTC 26.10.2024  108  51.9N  44.8W      995            41
    1200UTC 26.10.2024  120              POST-TROPICAL