jburns Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 39 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Semantics maybe, but I see it as a list of reasons there was insufficient data to classify it. Which caused a dropping of the ball. It happens. What shouldn’t happen is NHC taking full credit for the forecast when the models get it right but blaming the models when the forecast is wrong. Not trying to pick a fight here. It is the way I feel about a lot of things. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 The eye is clearing out just as Oscar is about to make landfall.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 Could this emerge south of Cuba and pick up strength again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 Man this storm screams underestimated. That sat/radar combination at landfall does not look like a cat 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 53 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Man this storm screams underestimated. That sat/radar combination at landfall does not look like a cat 1 Looked like a 100-110mph storm with an eye present on those last few images as it made this LF on Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 Probably was a Category 2 at landfall. The radar out of Guantanamo Bay had very intense echoes in the eastern and northern eyewall. Cloudtops were cooling, and the eye was clearing. SAR data suggests intensification into landfall; therefore, Oscar will be a good candidate for an upgrade in post analysis in the post-seasonal report. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 There are some very high end videos from Oscar in Cuba but I am not sure of their authenticity. Definitely seems to be some misinformation out there. I firmly believe this was likely a high end 2, low end 3 especially where that eastern eyewall came ashore due to satellite presentation, pinhole eye and radar plus the lighting that was ongoing through landfall suggesting a quickly strengthening system. Very unfortunate we didn’t get recon but this storm was strengthening quickly into landfall in my opinion. Will there be enough evidence with such a small core for the upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 21 Share Posted October 21 For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET has Oscar get down to its lowest SLP yet (low enough to support a H) later this week after threatening Bermuda: TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 75.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 21.10.2024 0 20.3N 75.2W 1004 33 0000UTC 22.10.2024 12 21.5N 75.0W 1003 31 1200UTC 22.10.2024 24 23.1N 73.9W 1004 33 0000UTC 23.10.2024 36 25.2N 71.3W 1000 38 1200UTC 23.10.2024 48 28.2N 68.0W 997 45 0000UTC 24.10.2024 60 33.4N 65.2W 990 46 1200UTC 24.10.2024 72 35.6N 64.0W 980 55 0000UTC 25.10.2024 84 38.8N 59.3W 983 48 1200UTC 25.10.2024 96 45.3N 53.2W 984 53 0000UTC 26.10.2024 108 51.9N 44.8W 995 41 1200UTC 26.10.2024 120 POST-TROPICAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now