Windspeed Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Good grief. This TC has a developing eyewall. D'oh!!This needs to be classified immediately. Land interaction is now in play for the Turks and Caicos Islands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Good grief. This TC has a developing eyewall. D'oh!! This needs to be classified immediately. Land interaction is now in play for the Turks and Caicos Islands. Yikes! How does this get overlooked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 The NHC slapping a 60% on this system only one hour ago is about as conservative as it gets. This appears to be a rapidly-organizing tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Yikes! How does this get overlooked? It's a very tiny system, as you can clearly see on microwave. But we haven't had recon for 36 hours. Though San Juan radar suggested a developing mid-level circulation, yesterday, we didn't have any evidence of a westerly wind at the surface within the southern semicircle. But obviously, overnight, the satellite and some remote sensing imagery started to suggest this had spun up a tight vortex. I must admit I am a little surprised that the NHC waited until this morning's 8AM to begin escalating chances of development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Keep an eye on 11AM AST now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 I would imagine a scramble to get out incoming watches and warnings for the Turks and Caicos and an advisory package for the 11AM AST. This is about as close as you're ever going to see NHC forecasters caught with their pants down. lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Oscar? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 7 minutes ago, marsman said: Oscar? Such a tiny little core. Wonder what the ceiling is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 It's not often we see a system trying to build an eyewall before it's even designated a tropical cyclone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 19 Author Share Posted October 19 Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 No other way around it the NHC dropped the ball here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Recon just took off from St. Croix and is headed into Oscar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Several VHTs rotating around the tiny core on IR sat… wild turn of events this morning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Kinda hard to say NHC dropped the ball with minimal model support the last few days and all scatterometer data showing an open circulation. HWRF was the only model really showing much coming out of it. Even when it looked like a TC on satellite Thursday, recon found no westerly surface winds as ASCAT showed. Chalk it up to being a tiny circulation, I guess. Suspect we get RI into a hurricane today looking at the outflow in a light shear and warmer oceanic environment. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...SMALL TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 70.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Watch for Camaguey. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba Provence of Camaguey For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 70.2 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion with a gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is possible over the next day or so, followed by little change in strength. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Things have been quickly evolving with a small area of low pressure located just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier this morning, there was a 0556 UTC AMSR2 passive microwave image that suggested the system's structure had become quite a bit better organized compared to prior images, with prominent curved bands on the 37 GHz low-level channel that suggest a well-defined circulation was developing. While the overnight C-band scatterometer imagery missed the small circulation just to the west, there was a KU-band scatterometer that suggested a closed circulation had formed. First light GOES-16 meso-sector imagery also suggests a tight circulation has formed, with bubbling hot towers within a small central dense overcast taking shape. All these data suggest a tropical cyclone has formed, and based on the earlier 12 UTC TAFB T2.5/35 kt Dvorak estimate, advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Oscar with a 35 kt initial intensity. Oscar is estimated to be moving due westward at 270/11 kt. This motion should continue for the remainder of the day as the system is initially steered by a narrow mid-level ridge positioned to the north. However, a digging east-to-west longwave trough is soon expected to erode the eastward side of this ridge, causing Oscar to slowdown and potentially stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba in 36-48 hours. Thereafter, that same trough is expected to continue amplifying or even retrograde westward, and if Oscar is vertically deep enough, this should induce steering that brings the tropical cyclone northeastward. The track forecast lies close to the simple TCVA consensus aid, which is quite close to the most recent ECMWF forecast. Its worth mentioning, there is quite a bit of southwest-to-northeast spread in the ensemble guidance, with weaker members slower and further west and stronger members being captured by the trough. Intensity-wise, Oscar only appears to have a 24 h window for strengthening as shear remains low enough. The first NHC intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a 45-kt storm as it nears the eastern coast of Cuba. Shear out of the northwest increases quite rapidly after that time, due to the aforementioned trough to its north, with the intensity likely leveling off around then. There could also be some land interaction with Cuba that could disrupt the circulation. However Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, and could be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up and down. After 72 h, the much larger trough is likely to absorb the small Oscar, with this occurring by the end of the forecast period by the middle of next week. Key Messages: 1. Oscar is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba during the next day or so. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for those locations. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 21.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 We have a hurricane, or close to it. Recon found 991 mb with a dropsonde and 73 kt flight level wind. Given the rotating hot towers in the tiny inner core, I figured it was way lower than the 1007 mb the NHC initiated it with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: Kinda hard to say NHC dropped the ball with minimal model support the last few days and all scatterometer data showing an open circulation. HWRF was the only model really showing much coming out of it. Even when it looked like a TC on satellite Thursday, recon found no westerly surface winds as ASCAT showed. Chalk it up to being a tiny circulation, I guess. Suspect we get RI into a hurricane today looking at the outflow in a light shear and warmer oceanic environment. For sure. But yesterday when it was passing north of PR there were signals it had a closed circulation. I think the NHC overall has a more conservative policy re: Naming systems and that’s fine, but you might run into situations like today where Oscar suddenly appears. I hear your point though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 3nm diameter for the eye… take that Milton! NHC special update: 70mph, 991mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 9 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: 3nm diameter for the eye… take that Milton! Wow! "Tiny" might not adequately describe Oscar's inner core. This may be a new record. Wilma's eye, and Milton's eye, shrunk down to 4 nm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 To put it in perspective the El Reno tornado was 2.6 miles wide, barely smaller than this eye 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 3 hours ago, Normandy said: No other way around it the NHC dropped the ball here You could clearly see that this was a thing on visible satellite yesterday and I was just looking over the satellites and do not work for the NHC LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Latest dropsonde shows Oscar on the cusp of category 2. No word on if this is rain affected yet, but Hazelton is giving credence to this result NHC needs to upgrade to hurricane and issue hurricane warnings immediately. It would be negligence if they don’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Pressure is down another 2 mb to 989 mb in the last hour. Hurricane Oscar 2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19Location: 21.4°N 70.6°WMoving: W at 12 mphMin pressure: 989 mbMax sustained: 80 mph Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989 mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150 m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly, and is substantially higher than the previous one. Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a Tropical Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 19 Author Share Posted October 19 Really incredible turn of events. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 NHC may have had an active hurricane this morning without advisories all while nearing land. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: NHC may have had an active hurricane this morning without advisories all while nearing land. Wow It’s ridiculous. They deserve all the smoke for this literally asleep at the wheel 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Just now, Normandy said: It’s ridiculous. They deserve all the smoke for this literally asleep at the wheel It's an extremely small system. Rapid changes are not unusual. I don't blame them, this had little to no model support 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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