WxWatcher007 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Starting a thread because this is an invest and could have longer term potential. Originally, the signal for this tropical wave was quick development off the African coast before turning northwest in the open Atlantic. Development didn’t quite happen near the CV Islands, but under a sprawling Atlantic ridge the models now take this robust wave west where it may find a more favorable environment in the western Atlantic or Caribbean. It’s unusual to have this kind of wave in mid October but here we are. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited with a well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become more favorable for additional development by the mid to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands by the end of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin/Konarik 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Not a great look for hurricane weary people but still way out there. High pressure blocks the out to sea route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 41 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Not a great look for hurricane weary people but still way out there. High pressure blocks the out to sea route Later in the runs there is a huge high over the eastern part of the US, so it never gets here. Haven't seen the midday Euro yet so can't say anything about that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Going to be frost/freeze advisories mid week in North Carolina. It’s getting too late for this nonsense. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Going to be frost/freeze advisories mid week in North Carolina. It’s getting too late for this nonsense. It’s very likely fish food this time of year. If one trough misses it, there’s probably multiple chances of one picking it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 14 Author Share Posted October 14 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: It’s very likely fish food this time of year. If one trough misses it, there’s probably multiple chances of one picking it up. Islands need to watch but yeah, extremely difficult to have a CONUS CV this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Islands need to watch but yeah, extremely difficult to have a CONUS CV this time of year. What exactly is a CV? Cape Verde hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 When that atmosphere gets on board, damn. This has already been one hell of a hellacious season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 14 Author Share Posted October 14 44 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What exactly is a CV? Cape Verde hurricane? Yeah—Cabo Verde (formerly known as Cape Verde) system. It’s very late for these kind of long track systems, though technically nothing has developed yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 0Z UKMET: moving WSW underneath a deep high toward E Cuba: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 36.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 14.10.2024 0 17.3N 36.3W 1013 24 1200UTC 14.10.2024 12 17.2N 38.4W 1014 23 0000UTC 15.10.2024 24 16.7N 40.3W 1012 23 1200UTC 15.10.2024 36 16.4N 42.4W 1012 23 0000UTC 16.10.2024 48 16.6N 45.2W 1011 24 1200UTC 16.10.2024 60 16.8N 48.3W 1012 26 0000UTC 17.10.2024 72 17.7N 51.8W 1011 29 1200UTC 17.10.2024 84 18.6N 56.0W 1011 30 0000UTC 18.10.2024 96 19.9N 59.3W 1011 29 1200UTC 18.10.2024 108 21.4N 62.4W 1012 27 0000UTC 19.10.2024 120 22.3N 65.3W 1012 28 1200UTC 19.10.2024 132 22.5N 67.8W 1011 27 0000UTC 20.10.2024 144 22.2N 70.1W 1010 29 1200UTC 20.10.2024 156 21.4N 72.0W 1009 29 0000UTC 21.10.2024 168 20.8N 73.5W 1007 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 It looks like a tropical depression to me. It’s been generating organized convection over a tight LLC overnight and into this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: It looks like a tropical depression to me. It’s been generating organized convection over a tight LLC overnight and into this morning I agree with NHC in that convection is not organized. Looks to be puffing some convection which then fades away and then puffs another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 At the least, it's going to need to maintain that convection near the center today into tomorrow to become a depression. The strongest winds are well north of the small but well-formed surface circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 12Z UKMET: further S than prior runs moving WSW through E Cuba into the NW Caribbean. This is similar to the 12Z Icon and JMA hit on E Cuba moving SW/WSW, a climatological rarity. Cuba is one of the more favored land areas for a landfall this time of year but not in that manner: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 38.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 14.10.2024 0 17.0N 38.5W 1014 23 0000UTC 15.10.2024 12 16.3N 40.5W 1013 23 1200UTC 15.10.2024 24 15.9N 42.1W 1012 24 0000UTC 16.10.2024 36 15.9N 44.6W 1011 24 1200UTC 16.10.2024 48 16.1N 47.8W 1012 26 0000UTC 17.10.2024 60 16.5N 51.1W 1011 27 1200UTC 17.10.2024 72 17.2N 55.1W 1012 28 0000UTC 18.10.2024 84 17.8N 58.6W 1011 26 1200UTC 18.10.2024 96 19.1N 61.6W 1011 27 0000UTC 19.10.2024 108 19.9N 64.7W 1010 28 1200UTC 19.10.2024 120 20.4N 67.9W 1009 30 0000UTC 20.10.2024 132 20.8N 71.1W 1007 31 1200UTC 20.10.2024 144 20.7N 74.0W 1006 31 0000UTC 21.10.2024 156 20.6N 75.9W 1005 31 1200UTC 21.10.2024 168 19.6N 78.1W 1005 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 12Z Euro and CMC both approach Hispaniola moving WSW and then hook sharply right moving NNE to near Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 Very odd track on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted Wednesday at 11:57 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:57 AM Title needs updated - down to 40% 7 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 01:43 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:43 PM 1 hour ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Title needs updated - down to 40% 7 day Done, thanks. 94L is still plodding along but the model signal has cratered. With my peak season forecast period coming to a close in a few days I’m starting to get into non-tropical mode… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted Wednesday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:20 PM Serious question. Why is this not named? I don’t understand the NHCs policy with respect to naming tropical cyclones. I mean I get that we don’t want to waste man power on useless advisories for a namewaster, but then let’s change the criteria 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Wednesday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:00 PM 1 hour ago, Normandy said: Serious question. Why is this not named? I don’t understand the NHCs policy with respect to naming tropical cyclones. I mean I get that we don’t want to waste man power on useless advisories for a namewaster, but then let’s change the criteria Because it's a piece of junk 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Thursday at 02:19 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:19 AM Slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted Friday at 04:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:56 AM On 10/16/2024 at 8:20 AM, Normandy said: Serious question. Why is this not named? I don’t understand the NHCs policy with respect to naming tropical cyclones. I mean I get that we don’t want to waste man power on useless advisories for a namewaster, but then let’s change the criteria Aged well bruh! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted Friday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:20 PM Just when everyone discards 94L to the compactor. That's an organizing mid-level vortex. A bit up in the mid-levels on the beam from San Juan, but it could be close to closing off at the surface. Shear is in the forecast, so I'm unsure how far a potential TC can intensify, but it does appear to be organizating in the short-term. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted Saturday at 01:16 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:16 AM 6 hours ago, Windspeed said: Just when everyone discards 94L to the compactor. That's an organizing mid-level vortex. A bit up in the mid-levels on the beam from San Juan, but it could be close to closing off at the surface. Shear is in the forecast, so I'm unsure how far a potential TC can intensify, but it does appear to be organizating in the short-term. Is what it is bruh the NHC is DONE after Helene and Milton if land isn’t on the table lol. And I get it, but this has been a slop TC for a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Saturday at 04:56 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 04:56 AM I need an ASCAT lol. This isn’t a TC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted Saturday at 05:35 AM Share Posted Saturday at 05:35 AM I need an ASCAT lol. This isn’t a TC?I know, right? This gets the Healthiest Tropical Blob of the Year (HTBY) award for 2024. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted Saturday at 05:49 AM Share Posted Saturday at 05:49 AM Although showers and thunderstorms located a couple of hundred miles north of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic are still showing some signs of organization, recent satellite-derived wind data suggest that the system remains a surface trough without a closed circulation. Some gradual development of this system is possible this weekend while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing near Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and extreme eastern Cuba. By early next week, further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted Saturday at 12:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:05 PM In the first view visible frames this morning, there is clearly low-level westerly flow to the cloud field. Highly suggestive of a closed surface vortex near the mid-level vorticity. Could definitely use a recon flight soon.1. Near the Southeastern Bahamas (AL94):Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized with a small area of low pressure located less than a couple hundred miles north of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic. In addition, recently received passive microwave imagery also suggests that a well-defined surface circulation could be developing. If these trends continue, a tropical depression or storm could form as soon as later today as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. On this track, the system should pass north of Hispaniola today, and move near the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and extreme eastern Cuba on Sunday. Interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Saturday at 12:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:39 PM Yea and this lat/longitude with no imminent recurve is a high probability for a US strike somewhere…. The current global guidance says otherwise but it’s not resolved properly at initialization; developing a Mid latitude cyclone; not a TC. So everything off in that regard based on disturbance’s current characteristics. The NHC rightly has this tracking west with the easterlies toward eastern Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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