I have, over the years, developed a few tools that work with pretty high accuracy regarding the following Winter.
First, where is the money and what is the "middle" of what people -- insurance companies, energy companies, etc., are predicting.
Natural Gas Futures
Last year, the Natural Gas price in the Fall was extremely low, especially compared to Crude Oil/Gasoline, and this was a better predictor than seasonal models, which generally had a trough on the East Coast, US, from a