Winter 2024-2025 Forecast

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I have, over the years, developed a few tools that work with pretty high accuracy regarding the following Winter. 

First, where is the money and what is the "middle" of what people -- insurance companies, energy companies, etc., are predicting. 

Natural Gas Futures

Last year, the Natural Gas price in the Fall was extremely low, especially compared to Crude Oil/Gasoline, and this was a better predictor than seasonal models, which generally had a trough on the East Coast, US, from an expected El Nino pattern. 

Current Natural Gas price is $2.64. 

Here is a chart going back to 1998, highlighting the highest (blue) vs lowest (red) prices. 

Higher Natural Gas price should be linked to colder weather in the eastern US, and Europe. and Lower Natural Gas price should be linked to warmer weather in the eastern US, and Europe. 

Here are the Highest Natural Gas years (blue):

Here are the lower Natural Gas price years (red):

For October, here is where we rank:

1. 1998: $2.27

2. 2015: $2.3

3. 2019: $2.63

4. 2024: $2.64

5. 2023: $2.91

6. 1999: $2.95

 

26: 2006: $7.53

27: 2007: $8.33

28: 2004: $8.72

29: 2005: $12.2

 

Furthermore, because of inflation, the Crude Oil or Gasoline vs Natural Gas spread is a better gauge for relative value. 

We are currently #2 in this metric [since 1998], behind only last year (23-24). 

 

ENSO

I manually plotted all ENSO variables (200mb wind, 850mb wind, OLR, SSTs, SOI, pressure, MEI, etc.), and I found that the most correlated ENSO measurement to the North Pacific [PNA] pattern, is ENSO subsurface. This works at +0-time. 

Because of this, I use the subsurface primarily to determine what the ENSO state is, and is going to be for the Winter. Obviously, in the future, it could change, but right now we are completely Neutral. 

 

For most of the year so far, we have been in a "La Nina" in the subsurface: 

This has correlated with a -PNA pattern

Now that the subsurface has neutralized, the PNA is not correlating so highly

NAO

In 2005, I found that the N. Atlantic SSTs in a region from New Foundland to Greenland  from May-Sept has a high correlation to the following Winter's NAO. The correlation was almost 0.5 (or 75% of getting the sign right). I made a manual index of the region, and have followed its predictions every year since 2005. I estimated that this NAO predictor index has a 0.54SD at getting the Dec-March NAO correctly (+1.00 index is 50% odds of +0.46 to +1.54 DFJM NAO). In real time, that method has been 9-9 on the 0.54 SD since Inception, and it has gotten the phase correctly 13-5. That is real future time forecasting results. Here is what the index encompasses:

I weight the index as follows:

It's been working out great in real-time. 

This year, the index comes out at: 

Top area: ~0.0 (x1.00)

Bottom area: ~+0.8 (x0.65)

Total: +0.52

+0.52 NAO predictor for Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar. 

That means there is a 50% chance the DJFM NAO will be -0.02 to +1.06 (using 0.54 standard deviation)

That gives a 74% chance of the Winter DJFM NAO being Positive overall. 

PDO

I have been burned on the PDO! I do not think SSTs lead, I think they are more secondary to atmospheric conditions. But the last 4 years, and actually the last 30 years, the PDO has performed admirably. The mathematical odds are something like 1/100 for random to hit as much as the PDO has over this time. Because of that, I will give it some credence. 

CURRENT PDO IS NEAR -3. 

That is 2nd on record for October, going back to the early 1900s. Only 1955 had a lower October PDO.

Here is what PDO correlation looks like in the Winter (map default is the "+" phase, you have to flip it around to get a negative PDO correlation). 

Rolled-forward North American Temps

December 2023 to August 2024 was the warmest on record for the CONUS, due mostly to +EPO pattern. 

I made an analog list of 30 matching analogs (75 total years in dataset.. 30 analogs is 40%) and I got a really strong signal the following Nov-March. 

When you have 40% of the dataset used, you'd expect the anomalies to come out at +1F, but what I found was a much stronger signal than that:

Dec-June analogs:

Following Winter (40% of dataset!):

Mexican Heat Wave in May

Mexico crushed records in May. I found that similar analogs rolled above average temperatures to the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS for the following Sept-March. 

Phoenix Heat Wave

It's the warmest Sept 25 - Oct 13 in Phoenix all time. I think they broke their 2-week record by more than +7F!

I came up with 20 + analogs and found this for the following Winter rolled-forward:

Wintertime 10mb

QBO correlates with the Winter time 10mb state. When coupled with ENSO, its correlation is very strong. Going back to all records available, the correlation is 75% that +QBO/La Nina leads to a negative Wintertime 10mb in the Northern Hemisphere. 75% that -QBO/El Nino leads to a positive Wintertime 10mb in the Northern Hemisphere. 

The QBO is currently +10 and rising. It will likely peak in the Winter. >10 events for the QBO are a strong phase. With La Nina tendencies occurring, although I'm not necessarily predicting a La Nina, I think the odds favor a cold 10mb N. Hemisphere vortex by about 2/3 or 67%. 

Cold 10mb is correlated to +AO conditions in the Wintertime. 

 

There are other things I have considered, that I may talk about later but here is my Winter forecast:

Winter Forecast

Temps:

Precip:

I'd put my confidence as follows:

vs 10-year average: 65%

vs 30-year average: 75-80%

vs 50 year average: 80-85%

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm warmer than the CPC. 

Here's the CPC's Winter forecast

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I do think that we will have some -EPO/+PNA periods, most likely in December-January but they likely won't last more than 10 days. The overall mean I think will be pretty above average, and we will have some very warm days on the East Coast this Winter, ahead of storms cutting up through the Midwest, Tenn/Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. 

February is the strongest month I have right now for warmer than average.

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I do think that we will have some -EPO/+PNA periods, most likely in December-January but they likely won't last more than 10 days. The overall mean I think will be pretty above average, and we will have some very warm days on the East Coast this Winter, ahead of storms cutting up through the Midwest, Tenn/Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. 

February is the strongest month I have right now for warmer than average.

If we have a Christmas blizzard I will call it a winter and give it an A+!!!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I do think that we will have some -EPO/+PNA periods, most likely in December-January but they likely won't last more than 10 days. The overall mean I think will be pretty above average, and we will have some very warm days on the East Coast this Winter, ahead of storms cutting up through the Midwest, Tenn/Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. 

February is the strongest month I have right now for warmer than average.

I think here in the mid-Atlantic we end up with an above average temperature and below average snowfall winter, but we won't be too far from the averages.

I think January will most likely be the above average month, as I think this will be the snow lull. December is going to be close to average, with a snow event early in the month. Most of the snow and cold will be during the first 3 weeks of February.

[qg_omega]

Great forecast

[Daniel Boone]

On 10/10/2024 at 4:16 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm warmer than the CPC. 

Here's the CPC's Winter forecast

Looks about like what Radiancewx is thinking. 

[Daniel Boone]

On 10/10/2024 at 12:18 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I have, over the years, developed a few tools that work with pretty high accuracy regarding the following Winter. 

First, where is the money and what is the "middle" of what people -- insurance companies, energy companies, etc., are predicting. 

Natural Gas Futures

Last year, the Natural Gas price in the Fall was extremely low, especially compared to Crude Oil/Gasoline, and this was a better predictor than seasonal models, which generally had a trough on the East Coast, US, from an expected El Nino pattern. 

Current Natural Gas price is $2.64. 

Here is a chart going back to 1998, highlighting the highest (blue) vs lowest (red) prices. 

Higher Natural Gas price should be linked to colder weather in the eastern US, and Europe. and Lower Natural Gas price should be linked to warmer weather in the eastern US, and Europe. 

Here are the Highest Natural Gas years (blue):

Here are the lower Natural Gas price years (red):

For October, here is where we rank:

1. 1998: $2.27

2. 2015: $2.3

3. 2019: $2.63

4. 2024: $2.64

5. 2023: $2.91

6. 1999: $2.95

 

26: 2006: $7.53

27: 2007: $8.33

28: 2004: $8.72

29: 2005: $12.2

 

Furthermore, because of inflation, the Crude Oil or Gasoline vs Natural Gas spread is a better gauge for relative value. 

We are currently #2 in this metric [since 1998], behind only last year (23-24). 

 

ENSO

I manually plotted all ENSO variables (200mb wind, 850mb wind, OLR, SSTs, SOI, pressure, MEI, etc.), and I found that the most correlated ENSO measurement to the North Pacific [PNA] pattern, is ENSO subsurface. This works at +0-time. 

Because of this, I use the subsurface primarily to determine what the ENSO state is, and is going to be for the Winter. Obviously, in the future, it could change, but right now we are completely Neutral. 

 

For most of the year so far, we have been in a "La Nina" in the subsurface: 

This has correlated with a -PNA pattern

Now that the subsurface has neutralized, the PNA is not correlating so highly

NAO

In 2005, I found that the N. Atlantic SSTs in a region from New Foundland to Greenland  from May-Sept has a high correlation to the following Winter's NAO. The correlation was almost 0.5 (or 75% of getting the sign right). I made a manual index of the region, and have followed its predictions every year since 2005. I estimated that this NAO predictor index has a 0.54SD at getting the Dec-March NAO correctly (+1.00 index is 50% odds of +0.46 to +1.54 DFJM NAO). In real time, that method has been 9-9 on the 0.54 SD since Inception, and it has gotten the phase correctly 13-5. That is real future time forecasting results. Here is what the index encompasses:

I weight the index as follows:

It's been working out great in real-time. 

This year, the index comes out at: 

Top area: ~0.0 (x1.00)

Bottom area: ~+0.8 (x0.65)

Total: +0.52

+0.52 NAO predictor for Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar. 

That means there is a 50% chance the DJFM NAO will be -0.02 to +1.06 (using 0.54 standard deviation)

That gives a 74% chance of the Winter DJFM NAO being Positive overall. 

PDO

I have been burned on the PDO! I do not think SSTs lead, I think they are more secondary to atmospheric conditions. But the last 4 years, and actually the last 30 years, the PDO has performed admirably. The mathematical odds are something like 1/100 for random to hit as much as the PDO has over this time. Because of that, I will give it some credence. 

CURRENT PDO IS NEAR -3. 

That is 2nd on record for October, going back to the early 1900s. Only 1955 had a lower October PDO.

Here is what PDO correlation looks like in the Winter (map default is the "+" phase, you have to flip it around to get a negative PDO correlation). 

Rolled-forward North American Temps

December 2023 to August 2024 was the warmest on record for the CONUS, due mostly to +EPO pattern. 

I made an analog list of 30 matching analogs (75 total years in dataset.. 30 analogs is 40%) and I got a really strong signal the following Nov-March. 

When you have 40% of the dataset used, you'd expect the anomalies to come out at +1F, but what I found was a much stronger signal than that:

Dec-June analogs:

Following Winter (40% of dataset!):

Mexican Heat Wave in May

Mexico crushed records in May. I found that similar analogs rolled above average temperatures to the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS for the following Sept-March. 

Phoenix Heat Wave

It's the warmest Sept 25 - Oct 13 in Phoenix all time. I think they broke their 2-week record by more than +7F!

I came up with 20 + analogs and found this for the following Winter rolled-forward:

Wintertime 10mb

QBO correlates with the Winter time 10mb state. When coupled with ENSO, its correlation is very strong. Going back to all records available, the correlation is 75% that +QBO/La Nina leads to a negative Wintertime 10mb in the Northern Hemisphere. 75% that -QBO/El Nino leads to a positive Wintertime 10mb in the Northern Hemisphere. 

The QBO is currently +10 and rising. It will likely peak in the Winter. >10 events for the QBO are a strong phase. With La Nina tendencies occurring, although I'm not necessarily predicting a La Nina, I think the odds favor a cold 10mb N. Hemisphere vortex by about 2/3 or 67%. 

Cold 10mb is correlated to +AO conditions in the Wintertime. 

 

There are other things I have considered, that I may talk about later but here is my Winter forecast:

Winter Forecast

Temps:

Precip:

I'd put my confidence as follows:

vs 10-year average: 65%

vs 30-year average: 75-80%

vs 50 year average: 80-85%

Looks a lot like 1949-50.

[Deck Pic]

Bust

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Deck Pic said:

Bust

I've felt more confident in the last few days after seeing this monster -PNA appear on models for late October, MR/LR modeling wasn't showing that. Then this +EPO and High pressure patterns right now are more of what we have seen in the last few Winters.  If I bust, it's because the NAO/PNA-EPO correlation I have stumbled upon will be strong, and Pacific -PNA/+EPO regimes won't get going with a "new +NAO pattern" in place. MJO going through 4-6 strongly right now is another warm sign, and the CPC having 2nd tier cold in the PNW is another reason to think the EC will have very warm periods.  I'm pretty confident in this outlook.. I would up the verification % chances based on what I'm seeing recently..  We will probably have quite a few cold shots, but our +NAO warm periods have the potential to get into the 60s and 70s here at times, imo. That's why it's skewed warmer. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Latest CPC Winter forecast, which I will verify against.. they went colder. 

They released this a few days after me, so it's a good comparing point. It seems like they were working on it 1-2 months ago though, as that's the trend I was getting 3+ weeks ago (as posted in the La Nina thread).