NNE Cold Season Thread 2024-2025

[J.Spin]

10 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Lots of bread and butter post storm too!

This is probably the only thread that gets much discussion about the weather nuances in the Northern Greens, so I hadn’t even heard mention of much in terms of a bread and butter pattern, but I scrolled through the past couple of runs of the GFS, and it does have that look. The past couple of runs show the following parade of systems:

1)    Nov 28-29: System passing through SNE

2)    Nov 29-Dec 4: LES

3)    Dec 5-6: Clipper

4)    Dec 6-7: Clipper

5)    Dec 9: Clipper/Coastal System

6)    Dec 11-12: Coastal System

7)    Dec 13-14: LES

There aren’t too many days in there without snow. Of course, those later events from a deterministic model are subject to plenty of change, but the general idea is there. A vertically-stacked low pressure system sitting over Northern Maine or the Canadian Maritimes is certainly a favorite setup around here, but those don’t happen every day, and they don’t often sit for too long. Having that closed upper low over Hudson Bay with broad upper level troughing is also a great setup when you have a 4,000’ wall of mountains sitting downwind of a moisture source like the Great Lakes. The BTV NWS is talking about it in their short-term discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

852 AM EST Thu Nov 28, 2024

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 419 AM EST Thursday...The closed upper low over the southern part of the Hudson Bay along with broad upper troughing across the Eastern US will be our main weather driver in the short term and beyond. West-southwesterly flow will continue to bring a lake effect snow band over `Dacks and the northern Greens, with the southeastern parts St. Lawrence County seeing a snow band persisting throughout Saturday and even into Sunday.

You never know quite what we’ll get over here in the Northern Greens out of the potential LES setups, since the wind direction is critical and you have to have enough moisture to carry the distance, but it never hurts to have Mother Nature spraying plentiful moisture in the general direction of your local orographic wall. And the temperatures of the lakes are apparently nice and warm, so that’s good. The long-term discussion continues with mentions of some of the potential winter events in the queue:

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 419 AM EST Thursday...Lake effect snow will continue into Sunday before the Lake Ontario band slides south of the CWA as the flow shifts to the northwest as the broad troughing finally moves eastward. With the northwesterly flow, snow showers in the high terrains will continue through the first half of the week. Global models show an upper trough sliding out of Central Canada and into our region late Wednesday and into Thursday which looks to be our next impactful round of snow. Temperatures will be unseasonably cold as daytime highs will be in the 20s and low 30s with overnight lows in the teens to low 20s for the long term.

As I’ve mentioned before, I find the GFS seems to represent these bread and butter patterns well with respect to the Northern Greens – it just seems more cognizant of the terrain presence/influences than the other global/medium-range models for whatever reason. One doesn’t need to dig too much into it, just pop open the GFS, run through the panels, and you have a good idea of when some of the best days will be with respect fresh snow so that you can plan ahead with respect to your ski schedule.

[bwt3650]

This is probably the only thread that gets much discussion about the weather nuances in the Northern Greens, so I hadn’t even heard mention of much in terms of a bread and butter pattern, but I scrolled through the past couple of runs of the GFS, and it does have that look. The past couple of runs show the following parade of systems:
1)    Nov 28-29: System passing through SNE
2)    Nov 29-Dec 4: LES
3)    Dec 5-6: Clipper
4)    Dec 6-7: Clipper
5)    Dec 9: Clipper/Coastal System
6)    Dec 11-12: Coastal System
7)    Dec 13-14: LES
There aren’t too many days in there without snow. Of course, those later events from a deterministic model are subject to plenty of change, but the general idea is there. A vertically-stacked low pressure system sitting over Northern Maine or the Canadian Maritimes is certainly a favorite setup around here, but those don’t happen every day, and they don’t often sit for too long. Having that closed upper low over Hudson Bay with broad upper level troughing is also a great setup when you have a 4,000’ wall of mountains sitting downwind of a moisture source like the Great Lakes. The BTV NWS is talking about it in their short-term discussion:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
852 AM EST Thu Nov 28, 2024
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 419 AM EST Thursday...The closed upper low over the southern part of the Hudson Bay along with broad upper troughing across the Eastern US will be our main weather driver in the short term and beyond. West-southwesterly flow will continue to bring a lake effect snow band over `Dacks and the northern Greens, with the southeastern parts St. Lawrence County seeing a snow band persisting throughout Saturday and even into Sunday.
You never know quite what we’ll get over here in the Northern Greens out of the potential LES setups, since the wind direction is critical and you have to have enough moisture to carry the distance, but it never hurts to have Mother Nature spraying plentiful moisture in the general direction of your local orographic wall. And the temperatures of the lakes are apparently nice and warm, so that’s good. The long-term discussion continues with mentions of some of the potential winter events in the queue:
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 419 AM EST Thursday...Lake effect snow will continue into Sunday before the Lake Ontario band slides south of the CWA as the flow shifts to the northwest as the broad troughing finally moves eastward. With the northwesterly flow, snow showers in the high terrains will continue through the first half of the week. Global models show an upper trough sliding out of Central Canada and into our region late Wednesday and into Thursday which looks to be our next impactful round of snow. Temperatures will be unseasonably cold as daytime highs will be in the 20s and low 30s with overnight lows in the teens to low 20s for the long term.
As I’ve mentioned before, I find the GFS seems to represent these bread and butter patterns well with respect to the Northern Greens – it just seems more cognizant of the terrain presence/influences than the other global/medium-range models for whatever reason. One doesn’t need to dig too much into it, just pop open the GFS, run through the panels, and you have a good idea of when some of the best days will be with respect fresh snow so that you can plan ahead with respect to your ski schedule.

Completely agree. Gfs seems to lock onto these patterns best from a few days out. If this was mid winter and lots of terrain was open, this would be the pattern that makes this area special with daily refills of 3-4” every morning to keep things skiing great. The temps mean local ski areas should be able to do some major expansion fast. It looks like a late, but promising start!


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[bwt3650]

Gfs has been consistent with this band hitting the northern greens tnrw night for several runs now..



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[J.Spin]

21 hours ago, J.Spin said:

This is probably the only thread that gets much discussion about the weather nuances in the Northern Greens, so I hadn’t even heard mention of much in terms of a bread and butter pattern, but I scrolled through the past couple of runs of the GFS, and it does have that look. The past couple of runs show the following parade of systems:

1)    Nov 28-29: System passing through SNE

2)    Nov 29-Dec 4: LES

3)    Dec 5-6: Clipper

4)    Dec 6-7: Clipper

5)    Dec 9: Clipper/Coastal System

6)    Dec 11-12: Coastal System

7)    Dec 13-14: LES

 

10 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Gfs has been consistent with this band hitting the northern greens tnrw night for several runs now..

#1 on that list of potential upcoming events finished up overnight, so we’re moving on to #2, and that should be the activity to watch over the next few/several days.

It looks like that event is starting to move into the area – precipitation was just some flurries here this morning at observations time, but the snowfall is starting to pick up a bit and the radar shows some moisture moving toward the Greens.

[mreaves]

Reporting in from Aroostock County, Maine. About 6” here.