NNE Cold Season Thread 2024-2025

[powderfreak]

What a season so far.

279” measured snowfall.

Stowe has the lowest ”reported” snowfall total in the area.  It might be fun to see what Jay’s 382” would look like here, with another 8+ feet of seasonal snowfall.

Just over 100”+ snow depth.

First photo from a friend, but the buried trees are a vibe.

[jculligan]

Question for the local experts here on "blocked" versus "unblocked" flow. This has some relevancy for a ski day I have planned for this upcoming Friday. I know that blocked flow tends to favor locations that are west of the Green Mountain spine, whereas unblocked flow favors locations to the east. It looks like most ski areas in Vermont are along/east of the spine...but I'm curious about Smuggler's Notch. In looking at topo maps, it appears that Smuggs is west of the spine. Do they tend to do better in blocked flow situations compared to other VT ski areas?

I'm asking because I have a ski day with a good friend that has been on the books for this coming Friday since the autumn. Naturally, we have rain coming this week...but there may be a limited window for upslope snowfall after the departure of this ugly weather system Thursday night, and I'm trying to figure out the location that is most likely to pick up a couple/few inches of snow to *hopefully* cover up the inevitable crusty/scratchy conditions that will follow the rain.

Thanks in advance!

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

What a season so far.

279” measured snowfall.

Stowe has the lowest ”reported” snowfall total in the area.  It might be fun to see what Jay’s 382” would look like here, with another 8+ feet of seasonal snowfall.

Just over 100”+ snow depth.

First photo from a friend, but the buried trees are a vibe.

I can't recall another winter that matched this year's near continuous running of the Northern Greens' snow machine, especially in January.  Meanwhile, much of points east were in drought.  Jan 2-31 here had only 0.43" precip and 4.6" snow.  How much fell at Stowe during that period?

[J.Spin]

6 hours ago, jculligan said:

Question for the local experts here on "blocked" versus "unblocked" flow. This has some relevancy for a ski day I have planned for this upcoming Friday. I know that blocked flow tends to favor locations that are west of the Green Mountain spine, whereas unblocked flow favors locations to the east. It looks like most ski areas in Vermont are along/east of the spine...but I'm curious about Smuggler's Notch. In looking at topo maps, it appears that Smuggs is west of the spine. Do they tend to do better in blocked flow situations compared to other VT ski areas?

I'm asking because I have a ski day with a good friend that has been on the books for this coming Friday since the autumn. Naturally, we have rain coming this week...but there may be a limited window for upslope snowfall after the departure of this ugly weather system Thursday night, and I'm trying to figure out the location that is most likely to pick up a couple/few inches of snow to *hopefully* cover up the inevitable crusty/scratchy conditions that will follow the rain.

Thanks in advance!

Powderfreak should be able to give you the Froude Numbers that he typically associates with west/on/east of the spine, but your understanding of blocked vs unblocked flow is correct. For the Northern Greens ski resorts, Bolton Valley and Smuggler’s Notch are typically considered to be on the west side of the spine, while Stowe and Jay Peak are on the east side.

As for the back side of the system at the end of the week (it’s been given the name Winter Storm Lola), there does appear to be some upslope snow potential. There’s not as much mention in the BTV NWS forecast discussions today, but they talked about the potential for several inches of snow yesterday:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 326 AM EST Sunday… Post cold front passage Thursday night into Friday, several inches of upslope snow looks very possible, especially across the higher terrain of the northern Greens and Adirondacks as the region will remain under broad cyclonic northwest flow. Additional chances for snow showers are possible Friday night into Saturday as well with seasonal temperatures in the teens for lows and 20s to 30s for highs.

The potential amounts will probably ebb and flow over the next few days in the modeling, but the GFS has consistently shown the potential for 6 inches or so thanks to the cyclonic northwest flow. The BTV NWS will certainly mention it in forecast discussions later this week if that look persists.

[powderfreak]

8 hours ago, jculligan said:

Question for the local experts here on "blocked" versus "unblocked" flow. This has some relevancy for a ski day I have planned for this upcoming Friday. I know that blocked flow tends to favor locations that are west of the Green Mountain spine, whereas unblocked flow favors locations to the east. It looks like most ski areas in Vermont are along/east of the spine...but I'm curious about Smuggler's Notch. In looking at topo maps, it appears that Smuggs is west of the spine. Do they tend to do better in blocked flow situations compared to other VT ski areas?

I'm asking because I have a ski day with a good friend that has been on the books for this coming Friday since the autumn. Naturally, we have rain coming this week...but there may be a limited window for upslope snowfall after the departure of this ugly weather system Thursday night, and I'm trying to figure out the location that is most likely to pick up a couple/few inches of snow to *hopefully* cover up the inevitable crusty/scratchy conditions that will follow the rain.

Thanks in advance!

It sometimes matters, blocked vs unblocked, but to me it matters more for the lower elevations around the mountains.  Regardless of blocking, the actual Spine above 2,000ft is going to get snow regardless.  Like a blocked flow that favors west side is still going to snow on the upper east slopes of like Stowe, Sugarbush and Jay.  Likewise, a more unblocked flow is going to still snow at Bolton and Smuggs upper elevations.

The blocking discussion and Froude can be used to highlight the jackpot areas, but above 2,000ft along the Spine is going to get at least some snow in all Froude numbers.

NWS BTV Froude study was more for how it impacts the inhabited elevations around the mountains… so like blocked flow, we aren’t getting more than light snow in Stowe Village or RT 100 corridor while Underhill and Jeffersonville or towns along west side are pounding.  Unblocked flow is going to put snow into the RT 100 corridor on east side while it’s going over the west slope communities.

Through it all, the mountains and Spine are getting snow in most of those situations.

Either way, Smuggs is a fine choice for CAA, W/NW flow squeezing out residual moisture after the rain.  If the flow is blocked, the snowfall should get more into the lower elevations on that west side, while it dries up or at least is more gusty wind-blown snow below 1500-2000ft on the east side.

[jculligan]

Very interesting and valuable insight, thank you both!! The upslope signal does appear to be fairly decent from Thursday evening through Friday morning, from my perspective, so hopefully the signal holds/increases as we get closer to the event. It's been a heck of a winter for the Green Mountains, so hopefully Wednesday's rain is just a small blip on the radar before the good times resume. Think snow!!!

[bwt3650]

What a season so far.
279” measured snowfall.
Stowe has the lowest ”reported” snowfall total in the area.  It might be fun to see what Jay’s 382” would look like here, with another 8+ feet of seasonal snowfall.
Just over 100”+ snow depth.
First photo from a friend, but the buried trees are a vibe.

Here’s the extra 8 feet…drifts burying the street lights. Please no more jay slant sticking talk. I wish they would just report, see pf’s report and add 10-20 percent, lol.





.

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Here’s the extra 8 feet…drifts burying the street lights. Please no more jay slant sticking talk. I wish they would just report, see pf’s report and add 10-20 percent, lol.
 

  That's awesome, there has to be 4-5 feet on the ground at 2,000ft in the mtns right now.

It's been a hot topic lately in the industry and public. There's a lot of snow everywhere.  Jay does 100% get the most snow.  It is irrefutable.  Probably a legit 330-340”…. Which is why it can be puzzling.

A Jay ski patroller or instructor was posting on FB about one of the 12" in past 24 hour reports this week... saying it was an honest 7", and his point was that it's a great snowfall and would've been more than the other ski areas (Stowe and Smuggs had 5" or 6"), but by putting 12" on there, it made it the talk of the town online again.  I think his words were "why can't we just take the win at 7" instead of pushing it to a point where its all people talk about."  He seemed to have that similar opinion of you I'm sure, being sick of how instead of talking about how awesome the snow is and how much there is... the dialog is being distracted by the snow report.

BTV posted this on social less than an hour ago and the first comment was about Jay Peak.  It is on everyone's mind, even reaching the general public.

It's been a helluva winter so far in the mountains.

[powderfreak]

This was a fun photo from this week.

8 feet on the ground swallowing the ground floor of the Octagon.  The snowcats dug it out this week to keep the snow pressure off the windows.

[DavisStraight]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This was a fun photo from this week.

8 feet on the ground swallowing the ground floor of the Octagon.  The snowcats dug it out this week to keep the snow pressure away from the windows.

Love that pic, is that at the top?

[powderfreak]

50 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Love that pic, is that at the top?

Yeah it’s the Octagon (lodge) at the top of the FourRunner Quad (3,600ft).

[powderfreak]

We’ve got the first true soaking rainstorm coming since New Years.  Temperatures won’t get *that* high… 30s and 40s.  But Wednesday night’s elevated temps will be the time the snowpack gets warm.

Temps rising Wednesday then not being able to cool off at night, that’s when the snowpack/vibe changes. Dew points could hit and hold at 40F… not terrible, not ideal.

The deep, cold pack will eat this rain up.  It’ll settle out and compress for sure this week, but all we should really do is add SWE to the snowpack… while ruining the surface conditions. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

there has to be 4-5 feet on the ground at 2,000ft in the mtns right now

I was snowmobiling up in the NEK Saturday at that seems about right at elevation there too. 

[powderfreak]

Tucks on MWN slid big recently.  Damn that bowl is filled in.

[qg_omega]

Amazing ski day yesterday

[MRVexpat]

59 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Amazing ski day yesterday

Slides are open!