NNE Cold Season Thread 2024-2025

[J.Spin]

[J.Spin]

15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This has western slopes written all over it.  Blocked flow spreading down the western foothills.

 

13 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

A lot of liquid into the peaks!

As noted earlier, Winter Weather Advisories are up for the Northern Greens for at least the first part of this anticipated event. I didn’t know it was going to be impactful enough during any one period to require alerts, but the BTV NWS forecast discussion talks about it:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

927 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2025

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 254 PM EST Sunday...The snow machine is expected to kick into overdrive for portions of the northern Green Mountains and northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks starting Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday evening. A long-duration upslope snow event looks all but certain at this time with an upper level low off the Main coastline will allow for Atlantic moisture to wrap around back into the North Country. Steep low level lapse rates, strong upward vertical motion, and a saturated (or mostly saturated DGZ) will lead to plentiful snowfall for elevations at 1500 ft and higher. Snow totals in these locations will range from 4 to 8 inches through Wednesday. The best accumulations, however, will likely be well above 2000 ft where upwards of 1-2 feet of snow will be possible through the upcoming week. Because of this, we have issued winter weather advisories for portions of the northern Green and northern Adirondack Mountains. Snowfall isn`t expected to be super heavy at any one point in time but the fact that we could be looking ta 48+ hours of continuous or nearly continuous snowfall will allow snow to steadily accumulate on Tuesday and Wednesday.  

[bwt3650]

Upslope has commenced…almost like a freezing mist with the finest flakes possible. Guessing it the moisture feed starting to hit the mountain.


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[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Upslope has commenced…almost like a freezing mist with the finest flakes possible. Guessing it the moisture feed starting to hit the mountain.


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Same here.  Looks like a fog or mist.

Flow is quite blocked and looks to be during this event.  I’m not super high on this one… think it’s going to be small dense Arctic flakes east of the crest.

We just drove back from BTV and the snowiest place on the drive was Williston on French Hill (I-89) from the rest area until you drop down into Richmond.  Flakes were a bit bigger and road was covered.  Everywhere else was a fine mist like visibility.

Radar confirms too, the best lift is occurring like 10 miles west of the actual barrier.

[alex]

Same here. Started about an hour ago

[powderfreak]

The ASOS’s are registering it as haze (HZ) or mist (BR).  Arctic cold just squeezing out low level moisture, of which there isn’t much but just enough?

METAR KMPV 070200Z AUTO 31005KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC011 M16/M18 A2970

METAR KMPV 070155Z AUTO 32005KT 2SM HZ OVC011 M15/M18 A2970

[bwt3650]

Same here.  Looks like a fog or mist.
Flow is quite blocked and looks to be during this event.  I’m not super high on this one… think it’s going to be small dense Arctic flakes east of the crest.
We just drove back from BTV and the snowiest place on the drive was Williston on French Hill (I-89) from the rest area until you drop down into Richmond.  Flakes were a bit bigger and road was covered.  Everywhere else was a fine mist like visibility.
Radar confirms too, the best lift is occurring like 10 miles west of the actual barrier.

Def lower expectations than the last cycle..looks like some decent bursts into thurs and the gfs has decent liquid. I think it’ll add up to a foot by the time it’s done, but would take the under compared to last time.


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[powderfreak]

33 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Def lower expectations than the last cycle..looks like some decent bursts into thurs and the gfs has decent liquid. I think it’ll add up to a foot by the time it’s done, but would take the under compared to last time.


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Yeah that wouldn’t be surprising.  The long duration totals into Friday will probably get there.  2-4” every period (12-24 hours)?

Personally I think the GFS is way overdone on scope and total.  That QPF would require a great maritime moisture feed or be on the backside of a synoptic storm.

I’ve just seen these set-ups, and it’s largely just moisture slowly lapping up against the Greens. But it’s not deep moisture… so shallow low level snow will favor the west slopes and nooks and crannies through the Spine IMO.  The Upper East Side will do fine but probably a strong gradient as one drops in elevation on the east slope.

[sankaty]

Any reason to be optimistic that the upslope will reach as far south as Killington/Pico? The NWS is not showing much here.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The ASOS’s are registering it as haze (HZ) or mist (BR).  Arctic cold just squeezing out low level moisture, of which there isn’t much but just enough?

METAR KMPV 070200Z AUTO 31005KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC011 M16/M18 A2970

METAR KMPV 070155Z AUTO 32005KT 2SM HZ OVC011 M15/M18 A2970

I was at a meeting up there on the back side of the airport, stepped out to Arctic flakes and 5°. It’s never too cold to snow. 

[bwt3650]

Any reason to be optimistic that the upslope will reach as far south as Killington/Pico? The NWS is not showing much here.

Probably some flakes tnrw afternoon. I would guess enough to maybe freshen things up a bit, but I wouldn’t expect terrain changing snow south of sugarbush. I’m far from an expert though.


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[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Upslope has commenced…almost like a freezing mist with the finest flakes possible. Guessing it the moisture feed starting to hit the mountain.

 

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Same here.  Looks like a fog or mist.

Flow is quite blocked and looks to be during this event.  I’m not super high on this one… think it’s going to be small dense Arctic flakes east of the crest.

We just drove back from BTV and the snowiest place on the drive was Williston on French Hill (I-89) from the rest area until you drop down into Richmond.  Flakes were a bit bigger and road was covered.  Everywhere else was a fine mist like visibility.

Radar confirms too, the best lift is occurring like 10 miles west of the actual barrier.

 

2 hours ago, alex said:

Same here. Started about an hour ago

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that wouldn’t be surprising.  The long duration totals into Friday will probably get there.  2-4” every period (12-24 hours)?

Personally I think the GFS is way overdone on scope and total.  That QPF would require a great maritime moisture feed or be on the backside of a synoptic storm.

I’ve just seen these set-ups, and it’s largely just moisture slowly lapping up against the Greens. But it’s not deep moisture… so shallow low level snow will favor the west slopes and nooks and crannies through the Spine IMO.

We’ll see how it goes around here regarding that last part. We had plenty of fine arctic-style flakes during the last event, but periods of larger flakes as well. We’ve had a mix this evening – certainly some 1 mm flakes in there, but also a good portion in the 5-8 mm range.

[bwt3650]

We’ll see how it goes around here regarding that last part. We had plenty of fine arctic-style flakes during the last event, but periods of larger flakes as well. We’ve had a mix this evening – certainly some 1 mm flakes in there, but also a good portion in the 5-8 mm range.

It has turned from that arctic mist to a more steady light snow in the last hour. Can tell the increase in moisture. Still not at the real good stuff yet, but this is accumulating.


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[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

 

We’ll see how it goes around here regarding that last part. We had plenty of fine arctic-style flakes during the last event, but periods of larger flakes as well. We’ve had a mix this evening – certainly some 1 mm flakes in there, but also a good portion in the 5-8 mm range.

Thats encouraging.  Cars white here but still small flake size.

[alex]

About an inch overnight. Still very tiny flakes, but quite thick “mist.” Forecast calls for 2-4” but it seems like it would be difficult to get that much with this snow growth

[J.Spin]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That's encouraging.  Cars white here but still small flake size.

We had picked up a half inch overnight from that evening snowfall, but it certainly ramped up at some point – there was an additional 3 to 4 inches on the boards this morning at observations time, with snowfall in the 1-2”/hr. range. The snow ratio on the morning stack was 26.2:1, so pretty close to that 19:1 to 23:1 range that the BTV NWS has mentioned in some of their discussions. I’m not sure when the bulk of that most recent stack fell, but I’d say snowfall has probably settled back a bit below 1”/hr. now. I was surprised to see that Bolton Valley only indicated 2-3” new in their morning report, so there isn’t any huge elevation impact between here to there.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

We had picked up a half inch overnight from that evening snowfall, but it certainly ramped up at some point – there was an additional 3 to 4 inches on the boards this morning at observations time, with snowfall in the 1-2”/hr. range. The snow ratio on the morning stack was 26.2:1, so pretty close to that 19:1 to 23:1 range that the BTV NWS has mentioned in some of their discussions. I’m not sure when the bulk of that most recent stack fell, but I’d say snowfall has probably settled back a bit below 1”/hr. now. I was surprised to see that Bolton Valley only indicated 2-3” new in their morning report, so there isn’t any huge elevation impact between here to there.

We are getting severe downslope winds on the east side of the blocked flow.  Gusts to 60mph and almost the entire ski area is shut down.  Even in town, ripping 30-40mph gusts.

Light snow but it’s a lot of wind.

[alex]

No wind at all here, and it’s accumulating decently - about 2” since last night

[alex]

20 minutes ago, alex said:

No wind at all here, and it’s accumulating decently - about 2” since last night

I stand corrected. I just got to the office at the base area, just one mile away and it’s quite windy 

[J.Spin]

46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We are getting severe downslope winds on the east side of the blocked flow.  Gusts to 60mph and almost the entire ski area is shut down.  Even in town, ripping 30-40mph gusts.

Light snow but it’s a lot of wind.

I’m thinking the Froude has been around 1? Driving in to Burlington, the snowfall was heaviest around our place through Bolton Flats, and then gradually improved as I headed west to the point of light snow here in the Burlington area. Snowfall at the house has been in roughly the 1 in/hr. range this morning as I’d estimated, and there had been about 6-7” of accumulation when I’d left.

[powderfreak]

39 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I’m thinking the Froude has been around 1? Driving in to Burlington, the snowfall was heaviest around our place through Bolton Flats, and then gradually improved as I headed west to the point of light snow here in the Burlington area. Snowfall at the house has been in roughly the 1 in/hr. range this morning as I’d estimated, and there had been about 6-7” of accumulation when I’d left.

I'll try to look but my guess is this is closer to 0.5-0.75 for Froude.  A 1.0 usually dumps more than what's happening now on the Spine itself.  I think because of the Winooski River gap there you do well at a wider range of Froude numbers.

This looks really blocked up to me.

Edit:  Looking at the NAM and GFS Froude, you're right, it's unblocking a bit throughout the day up to 1.0 or even just above later this afternoon.  It was at 0.50 last night and early this morning.  Then tonight it goes back down to 0.5 - 0.7 on GFS with the less mixing (overnight).... before daylight starts to mix it out and rise it back up to 1.25 at max afternoon mixing.

 

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'll try to look but my guess is this is closer to 0.5-0.75 for Froude.  A 1.0 usually dumps more than what's happening now on the Spine itself.  I think because of the Winooski River gap there you do well at a wider range of Froude numbers.

This looks really blocked up to me.

 

The flow doesn't seem blocked to me.  It's been snowing here all morning and with a really blocked flow, it can be sunny here while blizzarding along and west of the spine.

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, mreaves said:

The flow doesn't seem blocked to me.  It's been snowing here all morning and with a really blocked flow, it can be sunny here while blizzarding along and west of the spine.

Yeah I dunno, maybe I’m just off.  Definitely seeing much higher winds east of the crest.  Maybe that’s just skewing my perception on accumulations.  Would need to see where the QPF is landing.

This felt blocked to me, with 3-4” just west and 0.5-1.0” just east.  Like even up by Jay… Alpine Haven (1500ft) at 3.5” while Westfield at (1,100ft) just 1.0”.

Same around here.  J.Spin sneaks through the Winnoski gap with 3.9”.  That’s like a 0.7-0.9 type Froude to me.

[bwt3650]

There’s some heavier bursts coming through, but generally it’s just a steady light snow with occasional white out conditions during gusts. Wind is really kickin. I’m shocked Jay still has the Bonnie and jet running. The chairs were def rocking. You had your choice of pow or boiler plate on the groomers depending on where you skied. The woods were really good tho, with all the snow being deposited and being out of the gusts. Weird feeling in there where it feels almost calm, but yet you can hear the roar of the wind.

I think we’ll get a decent heavier burst of snow later today, but id say as expected so far up here.

Picture doesn’t do the wind blown conditions justice…




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[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 I was surprised to see that Bolton Valley only indicated 2-3” new in their morning report, so there isn’t any huge elevation impact between here to there.

I think there’s actually a decrease in “snowfall” with height because of wind and lower ratios… but doesn’t mean there’s less SWE.

I saw someone say Smuggs has more snow at the base than the top, and I’m talking it through… upper elevations could be seeing wind packing that QPF into 10:1 3-4” while calm spots down lower are doing 20-30:1 of fluff.

Like if you get 0.30” QPF… 700ft in Jericho is calm and 8” at almost 25:1.  Meanwhile high elevations could be 3” of 10:1 wind-packed stuff.

Mansfield High Road checked in with 3” of dense wind packed snow, for comparison but felt like the QPF was in there.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I dunno, maybe I’m just off.  Definitely seeing much higher winds east of the crest.  Maybe that’s just skewing my perception on accumulations.  Would need to see where the QPF is landing.

This felt blocked to me, with 3-4” just west and 0.5-1.0” just east.  Like even up by Jay… Alpine Haven (1500ft) at 3.5” while Westfield at (1,100ft) just 1.0”.

Same around here.  J.Spin sneaks through the Winnoski gap with 3.9”.  That’s like a 0.7-0.9 type Froude to me.

Not long after I posted, the spigot seemingly turned off.  Looks like 1.5-2.0 through early afternoon.

[bwt3650]

Snow picked up in intensity now. Larger flakes mixing in and starting to stack up nicely (until a gust)


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[DavisStraight]

How much longer is this going to last for you guys? How much you have now since it started?

[Froude]

Good rates and snow growth in my travels today along the spine, and BTV just upped their forecast. Smuggs reporting 10" today, I wouldn't be surprised to see 20+ in spots by Thursday.

Windier on the west side than a typical upslope event but nothing like the videos I saw coming out of Stowe.

[powderfreak]

37 minutes ago, Froude said:

Good rates and snow growth in my travels today along the spine, and BTV just upped their forecast. Smuggs reporting 10" today, I wouldn't be surprised to see 20+ in spots by Thursday.

Windier on the west side than a typical upslope event but nothing like the videos I saw coming out of Stowe.

I was thinking your home base must be doing well?

Earlier I saw 7.6” in Jericho and 8.0” in Waterville with snow continuing.

This should pack into Smuggs’ NW facing topographic bowl if the wind can stay down on that side. Meanwhile the Stowe SE facing topographic bowl and down the West Branch has been getting crushed with wind.  Really hindering actual accumulations despite snowing consistently the whole time with low visibility.  Even at home the flags are straight out.

Like rocks in a river, the lee side is in the backside "churn" of the barrier.