powderfreak Posted Monday at 03:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:06 AM What a season so far. 279” measured snowfall. Stowe has the lowest ”reported” snowfall total in the area. It might be fun to see what Jay’s 382” would look like here, with another 8+ feet of seasonal snowfall. Just over 100”+ snow depth. First photo from a friend, but the buried trees are a vibe. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted Monday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:03 PM Question for the local experts here on "blocked" versus "unblocked" flow. This has some relevancy for a ski day I have planned for this upcoming Friday. I know that blocked flow tends to favor locations that are west of the Green Mountain spine, whereas unblocked flow favors locations to the east. It looks like most ski areas in Vermont are along/east of the spine...but I'm curious about Smuggler's Notch. In looking at topo maps, it appears that Smuggs is west of the spine. Do they tend to do better in blocked flow situations compared to other VT ski areas? I'm asking because I have a ski day with a good friend that has been on the books for this coming Friday since the autumn. Naturally, we have rain coming this week...but there may be a limited window for upslope snowfall after the departure of this ugly weather system Thursday night, and I'm trying to figure out the location that is most likely to pick up a couple/few inches of snow to *hopefully* cover up the inevitable crusty/scratchy conditions that will follow the rain. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted Monday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:52 PM 11 hours ago, powderfreak said: What a season so far. 279” measured snowfall. Stowe has the lowest ”reported” snowfall total in the area. It might be fun to see what Jay’s 382” would look like here, with another 8+ feet of seasonal snowfall. Just over 100”+ snow depth. First photo from a friend, but the buried trees are a vibe. I can't recall another winter that matched this year's near continuous running of the Northern Greens' snow machine, especially in January. Meanwhile, much of points east were in drought. Jan 2-31 here had only 0.43" precip and 4.6" snow. How much fell at Stowe during that period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted Monday at 07:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:46 PM 6 hours ago, jculligan said: Question for the local experts here on "blocked" versus "unblocked" flow. This has some relevancy for a ski day I have planned for this upcoming Friday. I know that blocked flow tends to favor locations that are west of the Green Mountain spine, whereas unblocked flow favors locations to the east. It looks like most ski areas in Vermont are along/east of the spine...but I'm curious about Smuggler's Notch. In looking at topo maps, it appears that Smuggs is west of the spine. Do they tend to do better in blocked flow situations compared to other VT ski areas? I'm asking because I have a ski day with a good friend that has been on the books for this coming Friday since the autumn. Naturally, we have rain coming this week...but there may be a limited window for upslope snowfall after the departure of this ugly weather system Thursday night, and I'm trying to figure out the location that is most likely to pick up a couple/few inches of snow to *hopefully* cover up the inevitable crusty/scratchy conditions that will follow the rain. Thanks in advance! Powderfreak should be able to give you the Froude Numbers that he typically associates with west/on/east of the spine, but your understanding of blocked vs unblocked flow is correct. For the Northern Greens ski resorts, Bolton Valley and Smuggler’s Notch are typically considered to be on the west side of the spine, while Stowe and Jay Peak are on the east side. As for the back side of the system at the end of the week (it’s been given the name Winter Storm Lola), there does appear to be some upslope snow potential. There’s not as much mention in the BTV NWS forecast discussions today, but they talked about the potential for several inches of snow yesterday: LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 326 AM EST Sunday… Post cold front passage Thursday night into Friday, several inches of upslope snow looks very possible, especially across the higher terrain of the northern Greens and Adirondacks as the region will remain under broad cyclonic northwest flow. Additional chances for snow showers are possible Friday night into Saturday as well with seasonal temperatures in the teens for lows and 20s to 30s for highs. The potential amounts will probably ebb and flow over the next few days in the modeling, but the GFS has consistently shown the potential for 6 inches or so thanks to the cyclonic northwest flow. The BTV NWS will certainly mention it in forecast discussions later this week if that look persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Monday at 09:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:30 PM 8 hours ago, jculligan said: Question for the local experts here on "blocked" versus "unblocked" flow. This has some relevancy for a ski day I have planned for this upcoming Friday. I know that blocked flow tends to favor locations that are west of the Green Mountain spine, whereas unblocked flow favors locations to the east. It looks like most ski areas in Vermont are along/east of the spine...but I'm curious about Smuggler's Notch. In looking at topo maps, it appears that Smuggs is west of the spine. Do they tend to do better in blocked flow situations compared to other VT ski areas? I'm asking because I have a ski day with a good friend that has been on the books for this coming Friday since the autumn. Naturally, we have rain coming this week...but there may be a limited window for upslope snowfall after the departure of this ugly weather system Thursday night, and I'm trying to figure out the location that is most likely to pick up a couple/few inches of snow to *hopefully* cover up the inevitable crusty/scratchy conditions that will follow the rain. Thanks in advance! It sometimes matters, blocked vs unblocked, but to me it matters more for the lower elevations around the mountains. Regardless of blocking, the actual Spine above 2,000ft is going to get snow regardless. Like a blocked flow that favors west side is still going to snow on the upper east slopes of like Stowe, Sugarbush and Jay. Likewise, a more unblocked flow is going to still snow at Bolton and Smuggs upper elevations. The blocking discussion and Froude can be used to highlight the jackpot areas, but above 2,000ft along the Spine is going to get at least some snow in all Froude numbers. NWS BTV Froude study was more for how it impacts the inhabited elevations around the mountains… so like blocked flow, we aren’t getting more than light snow in Stowe Village or RT 100 corridor while Underhill and Jeffersonville or towns along west side are pounding. Unblocked flow is going to put snow into the RT 100 corridor on east side while it’s going over the west slope communities. Through it all, the mountains and Spine are getting snow in most of those situations. Either way, Smuggs is a fine choice for CAA, W/NW flow squeezing out residual moisture after the rain. If the flow is blocked, the snowfall should get more into the lower elevations on that west side, while it dries up or at least is more gusty wind-blown snow below 1500-2000ft on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted Monday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:50 PM Very interesting and valuable insight, thank you both!! The upslope signal does appear to be fairly decent from Thursday evening through Friday morning, from my perspective, so hopefully the signal holds/increases as we get closer to the event. It's been a heck of a winter for the Green Mountains, so hopefully Wednesday's rain is just a small blip on the radar before the good times resume. Think snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted Monday at 11:49 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:49 PM What a season so far. 279” measured snowfall. Stowe has the lowest ”reported” snowfall total in the area. It might be fun to see what Jay’s 382” would look like here, with another 8+ feet of seasonal snowfall. Just over 100”+ snow depth. First photo from a friend, but the buried trees are a vibe.Here’s the extra 8 feet…drifts burying the street lights. Please no more jay slant sticking talk. I wish they would just report, see pf’s report and add 10-20 percent, lol.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Tuesday at 01:33 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:33 AM 3 hours ago, bwt3650 said: Here’s the extra 8 feet…drifts burying the street lights. Please no more jay slant sticking talk. I wish they would just report, see pf’s report and add 10-20 percent, lol. That's awesome, there has to be 4-5 feet on the ground at 2,000ft in the mtns right now. It's been a hot topic lately in the industry and public. There's a lot of snow everywhere. Jay does 100% get the most snow. It is irrefutable. Probably a legit 330-340”…. Which is why it can be puzzling. A Jay ski patroller or instructor was posting on FB about one of the 12" in past 24 hour reports this week... saying it was an honest 7", and his point was that it's a great snowfall and would've been more than the other ski areas (Stowe and Smuggs had 5" or 6"), but by putting 12" on there, it made it the talk of the town online again. I think his words were "why can't we just take the win at 7" instead of pushing it to a point where its all people talk about." He seemed to have that similar opinion of you I'm sure, being sick of how instead of talking about how awesome the snow is and how much there is... the dialog is being distracted by the snow report. BTV posted this on social less than an hour ago and the first comment was about Jay Peak. It is on everyone's mind, even reaching the general public. It's been a helluva winter so far in the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Tuesday at 01:39 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:39 AM This was a fun photo from this week. 8 feet on the ground swallowing the ground floor of the Octagon. The snowcats dug it out this week to keep the snow pressure off the windows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Tuesday at 01:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:47 AM 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This was a fun photo from this week. 8 feet on the ground swallowing the ground floor of the Octagon. The snowcats dug it out this week to keep the snow pressure away from the windows. Love that pic, is that at the top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Tuesday at 02:36 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:36 AM 50 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Love that pic, is that at the top? Yeah it’s the Octagon (lodge) at the top of the FourRunner Quad (3,600ft). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Tuesday at 02:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:47 AM We’ve got the first true soaking rainstorm coming since New Years. Temperatures won’t get *that* high… 30s and 40s. But Wednesday night’s elevated temps will be the time the snowpack gets warm. Temps rising Wednesday then not being able to cool off at night, that’s when the snowpack/vibe changes. Dew points could hit and hold at 40F… not terrible, not ideal. The deep, cold pack will eat this rain up. It’ll settle out and compress for sure this week, but all we should really do is add SWE to the snowpack… while ruining the surface conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted Tuesday at 03:05 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:05 AM 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: there has to be 4-5 feet on the ground at 2,000ft in the mtns right now I was snowmobiling up in the NEK Saturday at that seems about right at elevation there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Tuesday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:32 AM Tucks on MWN slid big recently. Damn that bowl is filled in. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Tuesday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:56 PM Amazing ski day yesterday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted Tuesday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:55 PM 59 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Amazing ski day yesterday Slides are open! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM 14 hours ago, powderfreak said: Tucks on MWN slid big recently. Damn that bowl is filled in. Windloading over the weekend really filled in the east facing ravines. Shaping up for a great steep skiing season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted Tuesday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:36 PM VT in their own private Idaho. Snowfall below normal for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM 2 days of rain incoming with temps approaching 50 at 302 level. I'd say- it has been a hell of a ski season up here, but this is going to shut some trails/glades down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted Wednesday at 12:02 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:02 AM Need the rain to prepare this pack for corn skiing:)Home to 30F and 2” of snow, 2 more than was expectingCertainly a run of conditions to remember!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Wednesday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:38 PM Ran some snow cores today at the High Road plot… 77” depth at 3,000ft and multiple cores all around 20-22” of water. TK, the unidentified guy, ha. He loves the science, always down to tag along. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Wednesday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:39 PM By the time we got up there it had just started to rain. Found 2” of compacted snow from the past 24 hours on the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted Thursday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:34 AM Snow is melting fast, here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted Thursday at 02:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:40 AM 2 hours ago, #NoPoles said: Snow is melting fast, here same up in Pittsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted Thursday at 03:56 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:56 AM On 3/3/2025 at 9:52 AM, tamarack said: I can't recall another winter that matched this year's near continuous running of the Northern Greens' snow machine, especially in January. Meanwhile, much of points east were in drought. Jan 2-31 here had only 0.43" precip and 4.6" snow. How much fell at Stowe during that period? I don’t know the resort numbers for Stowe, but here in the Winooski Valley we had 2.74” liquid equivalent and 59.5” of snow for January (2.51” of liquid equivalent for the Jan 2-31 period you mentioned). Mean liquid equivalent for January here at our site is 3.45 ± 1.28”, so this January was below average, but well within 1 σ. Typically I find that the resorts in the Northern Greens run about 2X the snow (and presumably liquid) that our site sees, so that would be around 5 to 6 inches of liquid equivalent for the mountains this past January. The 2X snowfall number is very rough of course, but so far this season, Jay Peak is running at 2.25X our snowfall here in the Winooski Valley, and Bolton Valley is running at 1.81X our snowfall, and the average of those two is 2.03X. Bolton Valley is just a few miles away and our closest direct comparison for a resort elevation, and I think they’re running below the 2X ratio a bit because we’ve probably had fewer marginal temperature/elevation-dependent events this year relative to average. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted Thursday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:45 PM 11 hours ago, J.Spin said: I don’t know the resort numbers for Stowe, but here in the Winooski Valley we had 2.74” liquid equivalent and 59.5” of snow for January (2.51” of liquid equivalent for the Jan 2-31 period you mentioned). Mean liquid equivalent for January here at our site is 3.45 ± 1.28”, so this January was below average, but well within 1 σ. Typically I find that the resorts in the Northern Greens run about 2X the snow (and presumably liquid) that our site sees, so that would be around 5 to 6 inches of liquid equivalent for the mountains this past January. The 2X snowfall number is very rough of course, but so far this season, Jay Peak is running at 2.25X our snowfall here in the Winooski Valley, and Bolton Valley is running at 1.81X our snowfall, and the average of those two is 2.03X. Bolton Valley is just a few miles away and our closest direct comparison for a resort elevation, and I think they’re running below the 2X ratio a bit because we’ve probably had fewer marginal temperature/elevation-dependent events this year relative to average. Climo there is probably almost 3 times as much as here (~90"). January - more than 10X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted Thursday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:44 PM On 3/5/2025 at 11:38 AM, powderfreak said: Ran some snow cores today at the High Road plot… 77” depth at 3,000ft and multiple cores all around 20-22” of water. TK, the unidentified guy, ha. He loves the science, always down to tag along. Watched the video. What is the Max you have recorded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Thursday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:08 PM 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Watched the video. What is the Max you have recorded For SWE? I've seen 30". The scale goes all the way around once and starts a second round, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Friday at 01:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:03 AM On 3/3/2025 at 10:32 PM, powderfreak said: Tucks on MWN slid big recently. Damn that bowl is filled in. How deep is the snow in the bowl? I went there in August one year and people were skiing on the glacier that was left, it was over 10 feet high on a warm august day and long enough to get a decent run. I remember hiking up and seeing guys with skis on their back wondering what the hell are they taking skis up there for in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted Friday at 03:02 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:02 AM Rain changed to snow around 745pm. I had dinner in North Conway and it was 43-44 degrees. Left around 7pm and got back to Bretton Woods around 745pm. It was 37 degrees at the Highland Center when I got through the Notch back into BW. Not long after, the temp dropped 1 more degree to 36 and then the rain flipped over to snow. My temp sensor says 34 degrees now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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