danstorm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 hours ago, sankaty said: 18Z GFS now keeps the Killington area mostly or all snow for the weekend, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Yep, 0Z even better Can we get all snow down to Mt Snow? GFS and CMC print 12+ throughout the Greens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0z Euro much closer to 0z GFS. Very snowy for most of VT! Will be a banner holiday ski weekend if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Woke up to 2” and intermittent kitchen sink conditions. Graupel, sleet, freezing drizzle, snow.Another 1” since the flip to heavy snow at 11:30Mountain needs a good ski, wind packed and dense “powder”. Definitely not relaxing in the untracked on free heels. Snowboarding looked more enjoyable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Crap, it seems my worst fears are materializing for the weekend, specifically Sat-Mon when I'll be skiing Mt. Snow. After today's FZRA and a cold Friday, expect frozen granular (or could it stay soft-ish?) for Saturday. Also, Saturday's snow looks to break out too late to help conditions. Sunday looks like a sleetfest which is quite unpleasant to ski in. Maybe there's some time to get this colder? Monday looks frigid and quite windy so I'd expect wind holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 48 minutes ago, danstorm said: Crap, it seems my worst fears are materializing for the weekend, specifically Sat-Mon when I'll be skiing Mt. Snow. After today's FZRA and a cold Friday, expect frozen granular (or could it stay soft-ish?) for Saturday. Also, Saturday's snow looks to break out too late to help conditions. Sunday looks like a sleetfest which is quite unpleasant to ski in. Maybe there's some time to get this colder? Monday looks frigid and quite windy so I'd expect wind holds. I'm sure we haven't seen the final shape of this storm yet. Don't know if it will get better or worse, but I think there's still a decent chance that Sunday will be soft even at Mt Snow. I don't find sleet particularly unpleasant to ski in. How winds affect lifts is so unpredictable. I've skied undisrupted so many days when folks here guaranteed the lifts would be closed due to wind. It does look like the Euro now shows a marginally better solution compared to the GFS. I can't tell you how many times I've gone through this evolution of thought tracking a storm over the years: Model runs 1-10: Model A is shows a much better outcome than model B. Hope model A verifies. Model runs 10-20: Still pulling for model A! I can remember many times when the models have switched places and I end up rooting for the other model, but these solutions are so vastly different, that's surely not possible this time around. Model run 21: Really hope model B is right about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, sankaty said: I'm sure we haven't seen the final shape of this storm yet. Don't know if it will get better or worse, but I think there's still a decent chance that Sunday will be soft even at Mt Snow. I don't find sleet particularly unpleasant to ski in. How winds affect lifts is so unpredictable. I've skied undisrupted so many days when folks here guaranteed the lifts would be closed due to wind. It does look like the Euro now shows a marginally better solution compared to the GFS. I can't tell you how many times I've gone through this evolution of thought tracking a storm over the years: Model runs 1-10: Model A is shows a much better outcome than model B. Hope model A verifies. Model runs 10-20: Still pulling for model A! I can remember many times when the models have switched places and I end up rooting for the other model, but these solutions are so vastly different, that's surely not possible this time around. Model run 21: Really hope model B is right about this Thanks for the perspective Just about every model shows a 10-15"+ storm for the Southern Greens which in a vacuum would be awesome... hate having to sweat these details. I only get a few weekend trips a year up there (trying to convince the wife for more, but she's lost the love for skiing). I'd also love to ski midweek but that's not easy to do (we pulled the kids out of school the Friday of MLK and had a blast)... the crowds are just insane on these holiday weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 BTV has an early map out for the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 22 minutes ago, mreaves said: BTV has an early map out for the next event. Looks reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looks like a big time upslope event should be in the cards after this powerful weekend storm passes. Deep occluded low over New Brunswick bringing in a prolific moist feed from the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On Tuesday I headed home from Burlington at the end of the day amidst heavy snow that was falling at an inch per hour or more. The roads weren’t horrible, but the low visibility made driving really tough, at least through to the Williston area. In an exact reversal of the usual geographic snowfall trends we see here in the Northern Greens, the snow intensity lightened up the farther I headed into the mountains, and there was only light snow falling at home on the Waterbury/Bolton line. I checked the radar to see what was up, and there was an interesting band of snow aligned east to west stretching out from the Burlington area. We were just on the southern edge of that band here in the Winooski Valley, which is why the snowfall was lighter. As the band sank southward a bit more though, the snowfall intensity increased, and by morning we’d picked up 3.1 inches of snow here at the house, with Bolton Valley reporting 4 inches of new snow. The addition of the new snow was intriguing enough to get me to head up to the mountain for a quick morning ski tour using the Wilderness Uphill Route. Temperatures up at the resort were in the teens F, and with solid sunshine, it was a welcomed change from touring in the single digits F. There were no concerns about the new snow messing with the existing powder density gradient because the added snow was incredibly dry – my liquid analyses from down at the house indicated that the snow density came in around 2% H2O. A modest amount of snow that dry certainly doesn’t provide a resurfacing, but with plenty of deep powder already available off piste, and excellent subsurfaces on piste, it was plenty of snow to serve as icing on the cake and make the turns really effortless on any pitch. The snow from this localized band was just another small addition to the healthy midwinter snowpack in the Northern Greens, but all these events keep adding up - the depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is currently at 82 inches, which is between 7 and 8 feet. The healthy snowpack depth is becoming noticeable because more and more of the off-piste underbrush is disappearing, and on this tour, I started to notice lines opening up that I’m not too familiar with. Some of these novel ski lines are due to the extensive work that Bolton Valley has done on their mountain bike trails, but some are indeed arising from the fact that the mountain snowpack is simply getting deep enough to bury a lot of vegetation. We’re currently in the midst of Winter Storm Iliana, which will likely change the composition of the snowpack again. I haven’t seen any sort of mixed precipitation in this area, but snow analyses here in the valley have revealed snow densities anywhere from 7 to 13% H2O, so there is some denser snow in there. The composition of the snowpack will probably change yet again heading into the weekend – the forecast suggests that Winter Storm Jett will affect the area with potentially a foot of snow or more in the mountains, but we still have a couple of days to see how that system plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I received a text alert this morning that we’ve been put under a Winter Storm Watch, which in association with Winter Storm Jett that is currently crossing the country. The latest BTV NWS maps are below, and on the Event Total Snowfall map they currently have some of the 12-18” shading here along the spine in the Bolton Valley to Stowe stretch of the Northern Greens. I see mreaves also recently posted a copy of the preliminary map above as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Well, it seems like the slopes did not get completely hammered yesterday. Looks fast, smooth, and not too slick on the Mt. Snow cams. Tomorrow looks to be a pretty good day, if crowded. Storm now looks like 5-7" of snow then a lot of sleet ending as FZDZ/FZRA. Hopefully lift operations are not disrupted, conditions should be great. Monday will be absolutely frigid, we'll see if we make it out at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 storms gonna be wild, Stowe is already packed. couldnt believe the shaws in waterbury at 1pm. hype is real. We got the snow, they are coming hard. Im going into a cocoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 59 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: storms gonna be wild, Stowe is already packed. couldnt believe the shaws in waterbury at 1pm. hype is real. We got the snow, they are coming hard. Im going into a cocoon. Dude... this is going to be bananas. The entire state of Vermont gets inundated during President's Weekend/Week, but it will be acute this season given the snowpack, region wide like 100% open, well-advertised snowstorm, etc. Exit 10 is the epicenter, go north to Stowe, or south to the Mad River Valley/MRG/Sugarbush. Locally, the whole Stowe area is going to be bonkers... the the village in the evening after skiing, the Mountain Road during the morning and afternoon rush hours, the mountain in the powder portal, high winds possible Sunday and Monday. Even so, I'm always happy the vacationers get to experience a snowy/wintry trip. The weather and conditions go to shit for so many holiday vacation periods, the vibe is so much more upbeat when conditions are great and folks are into that winter storm excitement... despite the gong show occurring . The high visitation plus the roads being rough will lead to some super frustrating driving, traffic, even temporary road closures by PD if vehicles can't navigate Harlow Hill... I try to go into it with an open mind and enjoy the chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I know this town and region survive on tourism, but this weekend is going to be a zoo on steroids and not looking forward to it...ha. As DMC mentioned, I tried the Shaws in Manchester and had to leave as there wasn't a single spot and couldn't imagine the lines inside. Makes you appreciate living local and being able to pick and choose heading to the hill and just around town stuff. I appreciate PFs attitude of "enjoying the chaos" cause he has to since he works in the chaos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Yeah, I’m sticking to the less touristy areas this weekend. Going to snowmobile locally Saturday and probably just hang around clearing the driveway on Sunday. Oh, and if this storm busts and the winter takes a steep downturn from here, blame it on me. I bought a new snowblower today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Amazing how nice 6F without wind feels now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I hadn’t been up to the mountain since Wednesday, so I was eager to see how the ski conditions were faring as we move into the weekend. Winter Storm Iliana had hit the area at the end of the week, and while I didn’t see any mixed precipitation at our house near the Waterbury/Bolton line, I’d heard reports that the system had brought mixed precipitation to some areas. Overall though, snowfall has certainly continued to roll on at a solid Northern Greens pace in recent days – the Bolton Valley snow report was indicating 34 inches of snow in the past week. It’s the President’s Day holiday weekend, so the potential is there for a lot of visitors at the local resorts. We also have another large system (Winter Storm Jett) coming into the area this evening, and it should be hanging around through the rest of the weekend. I’m not sure how that plays into the plans of folks who are visiting the area for skiing, but I figured I’d just pop out for a relatively short ski tour in the Bryant Cabin area today. I headed up to Bolton around midmorning, and there were no signs posted at Timberline about the upper parking areas being full. There were also plenty of available parking spaces when I got up to the Village, and I actually was able to park in the closest spot to the Broadway Trail in the backcountry lot. The lower section of the Bryant Trail had been freshly groomed, and they’d done a serious grooming – the groomed area was so wide that it could easily support two-way traffic for automobiles. Temperatures were in the teens F and there was some sun mixed with clouds, so it ended up being quite comfortable. I toured up and around Bryant Cabin to the Not a Trail traverse, and then made my way down into Gotham City. Skier traffic wasn’t bad at all – a few of the most convenient Bryant Trail glades like JJ’s, and Big Blue had seen some decent skier traffic, but most glades had seen little to no activity at that point. I had first tracks down through the Grizzwall and Gun Sight glades. After my tour I stopped in at the new Nordic and Backcountry Center by the Village Circle to check it out and grab a couple of maps. Speaking with some of the associates, they said it had been busy in the early morning when people were stopping in and renting backcountry gear, but it was relatively quiet when I was there around midday. I also took a quick tour around the Village for some photography, and there weren’t any life queues at the lifts that I saw, so I think the fact that it’s a blackout period for some types of resort passes was helping to keep the number of visitors in check. Even when I was leaving the resort around midday there were still no signs at Timberline indicating that the upper parking lots were full, so that was another sign that visitation wasn’t hitting the packed levels that it does on some weekends. I’d started checking the consistency and depths of the snowpack right from the start of my tour, since I was curious if there had been any mixed precipitation over the past couple of days. I didn’t find evidence of any firm layers in the snowpack, so if they picked up any mixed precipitation on the mountain, it must have been extremely minimal. The uppermost layers of powder in the snowpack certainly weren’t of champagne consistency, and that made sense based on my liquid analyses of Winter Storm Iliana from down at the house. The storm brough 0.40 inches of liquid to our site in the valley, and the snow density for the storm came in at exactly 10% H2O. So, it was a very synoptic-like medium density snow that was topping the snowpack. Thankfully, it skied great, and there wasn’t any upside-down feeling to the powder atop the snowpack. I could cut nice deep turns into the powder on steep terrain with no issues. I toured in the 2,000’ to 2,700’ elevation range today, and powder depths were typically anywhere from 30 inches on the low end to 40+ “swallow-your-entire-ski-pole” inches before I’d hit a substantially firm layer. I could find spots where there was detectable wind slab about a foot down, but in the sheltered areas of the backcountry network where I was touring, those were generally few and far between. The overall snowpack depth at 3,700’ the Mt. Mansfield Stake is 85 inches as of today’s update, and snowpack in the 2,000’-2,700’ range I toured today was clearly at least 30 to 40 inches deep, since I wasn’t necessarily reaching ground level in my depth checks. Like Wednesday, I was again finding extra “unexpected” lines opening up as lower vegetation becomes completely buried. And, right now we have Winter Storm Jett hitting the area with another 6 to 12 inches of snow expected, so we should be adding another significant bump to the snowpack in terms of both depth and liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/11/2025 at 8:14 AM, Ginx snewx said: Mimicing 07/08 Mansfield stake 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I see that Ginx has popped into the NNE thread with a couple of updates on the season, and we’ve hit midmonth now, so it’s probably a good time for the seasonal snowfall progression update from our site anyway. I saw the reference to the 2007-2008 season in his first post, and indeed that was a solid, 200”+ season down here in the valley. We haven’t been running with the 2007-2008 pace (green line in the plots below) so far this season, but we’ve been getting a bit closer as of February. Looking at the season as a whole, it really comes down to November: the 2007-2008 season had a decent November with roughly 20 inches of snow, but this season we had a below average November with only 4 inches of snow. Were it not for that slow start, this season would actually be running right up there with 2007-2008. Another decent season that’s getting some mention is 2018-2019 because Matt Parilla has recently updated his website to provide the cool parameter of “Last Snowier Winter”, so I’ve added the 2018-2019 data as the orange line in the plots below. The 2018-2019 season doesn’t come to mind quite as quickly as 2007-2008 does (it didn’t quite break 200” here in the valley), but it was clearly solid with respect to snowfall if it’s running in the neighborhood of 2007-2008. We’re still behind the snowfall pace of 2018-2019 at this point, but we’re in the midst of Winter Storm Jett hitting us with some decent accumulations, so this season may make up a bit of ground in the coming days The first plot below covers snowfall up through Feb 15 for a closer look at where we’ve been comparatively among the three seasons, and then the second plot goes out through the end of March for a look ahead at how the 2007-2008 and 2018-2019 seasons progressed over the next month or two. One can clearly see from the plots how this season started out well behind the other two, but it also speaks to the strong pace of snowfall we’ve seen over the past couple of months to be able to gain ground on those seasons, where Mother Nature really didn’t take her foot off the snowfall pedal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It's silly i haven't seen depth or snow like this in years. And it's dumping right now. Like raining snow small flakes literally pouring snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 had a minute that it was snowing like 2/14/07. It didnt last but man we got a half inch like 10 minutes. Now it's just about 0.5 per hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5” OTG as of 5:15 AM. Moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We skied Pico yesterday and it wasn't busy at all. Locals said like 50% of people either canceled or didn't show up this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Aside from the change to Winter Storm Warnings, there hasn’t been too much to update with respect to the BTV NWS maps for this event – the most recent Storm Total Snowfall maps with the general 8-12” shading have been he way to go. There was a bit of a bump with this morning’s map update though, which returned some of the 12-18” shading along the spine in the Bolton Valley to Stowe stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 What’s Wunderground thinking saying 16” for me today? Must be counting sleet as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froude Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Feels like an overperformer.. already 5ish here and coming down hard. 16 does seem aggressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 35 minutes ago, Froude said: Feels like an overperformer.. already 5ish here and coming down hard. 16 does seem aggressive though. Latest HRRR shows sleet never makes it to you. Back end of this storms going to be a doozy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timp Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9” so far and just picking back up after being dry slotted for a few hours. 30” otg, glad I raked the roof yesterday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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