NNE Cold Season Thread 2024-2025

[Prismshine Productions]

Next up. 
 

I'm taking the over on the .7"

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[J.Spin]

The forecast for today was even colder than yesterday, but more snow from the back side of our recent clipper system continued to fall even into last night as the cold temperatures allowed Lake Champlain to contribute moisture for lake-effect snow into the mountains. Thanks to the boost from the lake, we picked up 5 to 6 inches of snow down at our site in the valley, and as of this morning’s snow report, Bolton Valley had picked up 16 inches of snow in the past 48 hours.

With temperatures hovering in the single digits F, touring was the call for today’s ski outing, and based on what I saw up at the mountain yesterday, Bolton’s Timberline area looked ready for exploration. It was 2 F when I pulled into the Timberline base area in the middle of the afternoon, but thankfully there was no wind, and the afternoon sun really helped take off the chill. There were a few other groups out touring as well, but overall, it looked like a fairly quite Sunday afternoon at Timberline.

The Timberline Uphill Route is in excellent shape, and perhaps because of the temperatures, skier traffic on the Timberline terrain has been quite light. The powder depth at 1,500’ at the Timberline Base is about 6 to 8 inches, and up in the 2,000-2,500’ elevation range it’s 8 to 12 inches. There’s not really much base below the powder down at the 1,500’ elevation, and it’s probably a couple hundred vertical feet up before you start getting a decent amount of base snow. Thankfully, the base elevations down near the Timberline Base Lodge are manageable with the available snowpack because most of the on-piste terrain there isn’t too steep. Above that elevation, the base is sufficient for great skiing aside from scoured areas, steep areas, or areas with underlying obstacles in the snow. The Timberline terrain can certainly support touring traffic right now, but there’s no way it would support lift-served levels of skiing, so we’ll need more snow or they’ll need to put some manmade snow down if they want to start up Timberline lift service in the short term.

As the lake-effect snow continued last night, the flakes transitioned from more dendritic to rather small and grainy, so snow ratios came down to the 8 to 10% H2O range for my last couple of snow analyses from the event. Consistent with those observations, what I found out there today was fairly medium-weight powder. It did a better job of covering the subsurfaces than super light powder would have, and it was still dry enough that bogging down wasn’t any issue even on shallower pitches. I was on 115 mm fat skis, which helped of course, but I don’t think most folks would find movement an issue with whatever skis they had.

A clipper system is forecast to start affecting the area tomorrow, and Winter Weather Advisories are already up for the western slopes of the Northern Greens. It’s not a huge system, but snow forecasts for the local mountains are in the 6 to 8-inch range and liquid equivalent is up around a half inch in some of the modeling, so it would be a nice boost to the snowpack and snow surfaces if it plays out like that.

[J.Spin]

My wife mentioned to me this morning that she’d been seeing increased snowfall numbers in the forecast, and I also saw on TWC that the Winter Weather Advisories had expanded around here. When I checked the BTV NWS site, indeed it looks like projected accumulations have been bumped a bit for this next system, and the BTV NWS forecast discussion talks about the reasoning:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

746 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 645 AM EST Monday...

*A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for much of northern New York, northern Vermont, and portions of central Vermont. Areal coverage of 3 to 6 inches has expanded over the previous forecast. Moderate snowfall could impact holiday travelers this evening through late morning Tuesday.

A clipper-type system will move through the region this afternoon through Tuesday morning bringing breezy winds and accumulating snow. Two facets of the forecast have changed and generally resulted in increasing snowfall amounts: QPF has increased, and the overall 850mb low-level jet has weakened below 40kts for most locations. Moisture is still projected to be mainly along and behind the lljet supporting more snowfall than usual for downslope locations along the eastern Adirondacks while limiting the eastward extent of shadowed precipitation. As such, snowfall amounts were increased pretty much everywhere leading to more widespread cover of 3 to 6 inches of accumulating snow. One foil, which moderated my forecast a bit, is that the dendritic growth zone is rather high for many locations and coincident with 35+kt winds. These winds will likely fracture a good portion of dendrites resulting in more of a mixed snow-crystal structure reaching the ground favoring a dry, but relatively more dense snowpack that could limit snow depth. Should winds decrease further, however, another couple of inches could accumulate.

[J.Spin]

I was out on a ski tour at Bolton this afternoon and I while strolling along I figured I’d see what my watch had to say about the weather, so I asked for the forecast. Since what comes from the watch is typically briefer than the phone, all it said was “The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter Storm Warning through tomorrow; it should be snowy tonight.” My first thought was, “Well, huh, that’s new; projections for this system seem to keep escalating as we get closer.” In the verbal forecast there was also nothing about temperatures or anything else beyond the Winter Storm Warning and the fact it was going to snow, but I certainly like the way the watch prioritizes things. Anyway, indeed Winter Storm Warnings are up for the Northern Greens now ahead of the next system.

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

344 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 344 PM EST Monday...  snowfall amounts for tonight and Tuesday  have been increased by 10 to 20 percent based on the latest guidance. The main reason behind this increase is additional influx of moisture given the slightly higher amplitude upper level trough and increased upper level forcing. Model soundings continue to show a 5000 ft thick snow growth layer  around 10,000 ft this evening at the onset of snowfall with strong  omega co-located within the snow growth layer. This is perfect for dendritic growth for large snowflakes. One concern with the snow growth layer being so elevated, strong 925 to 805 mb winds may help fragment snowflakes leading to needle-like snowflakes which tend to accumulate at a slower rate. This may initially cut into snow amounts but as the snow growth lowers through the overnight hours, low level winds will also weaken. Snowfall rates between 0.5" to 1" per hour may occur during the overnight hours, especially near the Canadian border in response to the lowering snow growth layer and  lighter winds. Given all this information, we have gone ahead and  hoisted a few winter storm warning for parts of northwestern Vermont  and northern New York as snow totals may approach 8 inches locally. 

[J.Spin]

Yesterday’s turns at Timberline were quite good, so I headed back up to Bolton Valley again today for more ski touring. Compared to yesterday, temperatures were about 10 degrees warmer today when I arrived at the Timberline Base. Even though it was cloudy all afternoon ahead of our next incoming storm, the warmer temperatures were quite apparent.

Yesterday I toured in the Twice as Nice and Showtime areas, so today I decided to mix things up a bit and spent most of the tour on Spell Binder. With our sub-zero F temperatures overnight, the snow was extremely well preserved, so the depth and quality of the powder was essentially the same as what I encountered on yesterday’s tour. There may have been a subtle bit of settling in the powder overnight, but I’d actually say today’s turns were better and even more consistent than yesterday’s. It’s hard to say if it was just better overall snow deposition and protection in the Spell Binder area, or the pitch was just right for the conditions, or the snow just settled a bit and set up an even better density gradient in the powder. Perhaps all those factors contributed to varying degrees, but whatever the case, the powder skiing was excellent out there today – bottomless turns with about 8 to 12 inches of medium weight right-side-up powder that made the skiing nearly effortless on fat boards.

Conditions are likely to change by tomorrow though, since another winter storm is moving into the area tonight. Winter Weather Advisories started appearing in the area yesterday afternoon, and both the advisories and projected snow accumulations from the National Weather Service in Burlington have been ramping up since then. While I while strolling along during my tour today I figured I’d see what my watch had to say about the weather, so I asked for the forecast. Since what comes from the watch is typically briefer than the phone, all it said was “The National Weather Service Office in Burlington has issued a Winter Storm Warning through tomorrow; it should be snowy tonight.” My first thought was, “Well, huh, that’s new; projections for this system seem to keep escalating as we get closer.” In the verbal forecast there was nothing about temperatures or anything else beyond the Winter Storm Warning and the fact it was going to snow, but I certainly like the way the watch prioritizes things. Anyway, indeed Winter Storm Warnings are up for the Northern Greens now ahead of the next system with potentially a foot of snow at elevation. We’ll see what tomorrow brings, but it could be another great ski day.

[J.Spin]

As of their early morning snow report, Bolton Valley had received 8 inches of accumulation from the clipper that began affecting the area yesterday evening, so I headed up for some morning turns with my wife and our younger son. We’re not fully into the holiday week yet, so visitation at the resort was still fairly modest – around the time of the opening of the early lifts, folks were parking in the second and third tiers of the main Village parking areas.

I’d say we found about 8 inches of new snow at most elevations, so that’s right on track with the snow report. The powder was dry, midweight snow – my snow analyses for the storm up to that point came in at 7 to 8 % H2O. Total liquid equivalent from the system stands at 0.42 inches at our site in the valley, so that’s very much in line with the forecasts, and the mountain was probably somewhere in the range of a ½ inch of liquid equivalent. While not enough for a massive resurfacing, it did a decent job of resetting the surfaces atop subsurfaces that are already of decent quality from the past couple of systems.

After a couple days of below average temperatures, we’ve warmed back up into the 20s F now, and with light snow falling and no wind, the weather was fantastic out on the slopes today. We started off with a run on the Vista Quad, and Alta Vista had nice powder and chowder available  - it was enough to be bottomless in untouched areas on moderate slope angles. Our timing was perfect for catching the opening of the Wilderness Lift, so we did a couple runs there, then finished off with more runs off Vista and Snowflake. The resort even hit Spillway hard with snowmaking and it’s good to go – my wife and I didn’t ski it, but my son and his friend did and said it was fine for manmade snow.

Conditions on the slopes are certainly good, but the natural snow trails could still use more cover, and the resort will need that to expand terrain into areas where they aren’t making snow. They haven’t yet opened Timberline, most of the Snowflake area, or the Cobrass area, so there’s a lot of terrain still to be made available.

[borderwx]

Opened gifts early yesterday with a few hours of powder skiing. 6+ with enough density to not feel the bottom, very enjoyable laps with the mountain crew.

17 here but you can feel the sun, Merry Christmas NNE

Wind rippled, sparkle conditions here in the NEK



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[Prismshine Productions]

Opened gifts early yesterday with a few hours of powder skiing. 6+ with enough density to not feel the bottom, very enjoyable laps with the mountain crew.

17 here but you can feel the sun, Merry Christmas NNE

Wind rippled, sparkle conditions here in the NEK



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How much y'all up to for the season up that way?

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[powderfreak]

The mountains are really in some of the best shape for the holiday period that we’ve seen in some time.

The terrain openings right now and the healthy snowpack (11” above normal) without a true grinch storm makes this first half of the holiday period a good time.

It may certainly change by early next week though.  But it’s been full winter for a few weeks it’s seemed with sustained cold for snowmaking and decent natural snow.

[powderfreak]

Slalom Hill had a minor slide today… the snowpack is layered and several reports of heavy sloughing and fracturing snowpack in the steep high elevation natural snow.  Interesting that the low elevation snowmaking released energy as well. 

[J.Spin]

High-quality powder snow is generally ephemeral; it’s best skied when it’s fresh because it loses loft as it settles, and the bubby “champagne” effect is reduced. I say “generally” because there are times when powder can improve over time. We’re in one of those weather regimes now, and every time I head out, the areas of untouched snow just seem to ski better and better. The humidity is low, and each night we’re dropping into the single digits above or below zero F; it’s a recipe for great powder preservation. I already noted the improvement in the snow between my ski sessions on Monday and Tuesday, and here we are on Thursday and the powder just continues to impress.

I had some time to get out for a tour this afternoon, and I managed to catch some sunset skiing on Timberline. Since I’d had such good snow on Tuesday, I actually followed that same route today and stuck to Spell Binder. The top layer of the powder is just feathers, and it gradually gets denser the deeper you go into the snowpack, which is just the way you want if for skiing. I’m not sure if the skiing could be any more effortless than what I’d experience on Tuesday, but perhaps it was today.

Touring skier traffic hasn’t been too busy at Timberline in the past few days, but as always, another storm would be welcomed. It’s certainly not that the quality of the powder needs a reset, but we could use a reset of the ski tracks on the trails. Untracked lines are still there, but they won’t hold out forever, and eventually new snow will be needed.

[Zeppy]

Anybody else seeing this? R Running east/west south of Ascutney. Maybe a house fire last night?

[borderwx]

Seemed to take until noon for the valley clouds to burn off, another dog run below zero, but here come the blankets in the sky…




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[bwt3650]

That is a nice signal on the gfs for a solid upslope event late week…would guess double digit cycle totals into the weekend if it held.



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[Boston Bulldog]

3 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

That is a nice signal on the gfs for a solid upslope event late week…would guess double digit cycle totals into the weekend if it held.



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Pasty synoptic snow followed by persistent upslope would be a fantastic way to rebound from this thaw

 

[J.Spin]

I’ve been telling my wife about the fantastic powder conditions I’ve been finding on my outings up at Bolton Valley, so today she joined me for a ski tour. I returned to Timberline and brought her on the same tour that I did yesterday, and the powder continued to be just as fantastic as it’s been the past several days. She was definitely impressed with the quality of the powder, and we talked a lot about exactly what was making it come together for such perfection and effortless turns. It came down to the fact that the gradient in it is just ideal; it’s right-side-up with no intervening hollow or dense layers. The top also has a subtle layer of extremely delicate surface hoar, or surface hoar-like crystals, and that really finishes off the uppermost layer of the powder with extremely dry snow to set the starting point of the density gradient. Anyway, the turns were silky smooth, and the skier traffic was very light, so there are still plenty of fresh lines out there for folks who want to check out some really primo powder. Tomorrow might be the last day of this current weather regime though, since some warmer temperatures are coming. Our next potential snowstorm could be coming in just a few days though; the models suggest there could be something around the New Year’s holiday.

[J.Spin]

With warming temperatures in the forecast today, I figured the slopes would be softening up, so it felt like a good day for some lift-served skiing. Temperatures were still well below freezing this morning though, so I was unsure how quickly surfaces would soften, and I decided to sharpen the edges on my mid-fat Telemark skis. Last time I had need of edges, I found them sorely lacking, so it felt like it was time. I can’t recall the last time I sharpened the edges of those skis, but it has to have been at least a couple of years.

Out on the slopes I found an interesting mix of conditions. We’ve had some mountain temperature inversions in place recently, so I actually found some of the softest conditions up high near the summits, while groomed slopes with manmade snow were notably firmer on the lower mountain. While there was nothing that was outrageously icy, it was nice to have the extra sharpness to my edges on the manmade snow.

One exciting thing I saw in the Bolton Valley Snow Report this morning was that resort had finally opened up the Cobrass area, which included Cobrass and nearby trails. Today being my first chance to check out the conditions in that area, I headed right down Cobrass for my first run. Being up near the summit where the warmer temperatures of the inversion had been around for a bit, I found the snow on Cobrass to already be nicely softened. The skier’s right of the steep upper section had excellent soft snow that had been built up by skier traffic. It was so good that I went right back to it on my next run. I also hit Alta Vista off the Vista Summit, and it was nice, but it didn’t offer up quite as much soft snow as Cobrass.

We’re moving out of the quiet period of weather that we’ve had over the past several days in a more active regime. The system moving into the area over the next couple of days doesn’t look like it will provide any snow, but the one behind it should give the local mountains their next shot at substantial accumulation, with the potential for upslope snow on the back side.

[J.Spin]

On 12/27/2024 at 6:10 PM, bwt3650 said:

That is a nice signal on the gfs for a solid upslope event late week…would guess double digit cycle totals into the weekend if it held.

 

On 12/27/2024 at 10:03 PM, Boston Bulldog said:

Pasty synoptic snow followed by persistent upslope would be a fantastic way to rebound from this thaw.

As we get closer, the BTV NWS is starting to cover it more in their AFDs, but with that cyclonic flow and potential assistance from lake moisture (both mentioned in the bolded text) it does have the look of snow from Wednesday right through Sunday. Most of the modeling shows it to varying degrees. It’s not really a clipper-style bread and butter pattern for the Northern Greens, but that cyclonic flow is often part of it as well.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

131 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 355 AM EST Sunday...As additional s/w energy rotates acrs the Mid Atlantic States on Weds, secondary coastal develops occurs over southern New England. This area of low pres is progged to deepen with both 850/700h circulations becoming closed off as the system lifts toward Maine. This cyclonic circulation wl help to advect cooler 925mb to 850mb temps acrs our cwa on favorable upslope flow on Weds into Thurs. As both 925mb and 850mb temps fall below 0C by 00z Thurs, expect snow levels to drop to the valley floors. Still some uncertainty on how quickly this system becomes closed off and if the circulation slows down per the CMC/ECMWF or remains progressive and quickly lifts away from our cwa per the GFS. For now have continued with likely/cat pops for most of the area on Weds, but confine the highest likely pops to the northern Dacks/western Slopes for Weds night into Thurs, before tapering off to chc by Thurs night. Several inches of snow is likely for the mountains during this time frame with increasing snow ratio. Deep cyclonic flow prevails into next weekend with favorable upslope flow, continued llvl caa, and some lake moisture interaction, helping to keep the threat for scattered mountain snow showers going. Progged 850mb temps drop btwn -14C and -18C by Saturday, supporting highs in the mid teens to mid 20s with lows holding in the 10 to 20 degree range due to clouds/winds.

[J.Spin]

 

I hadn’t realized that temperatures would already be coming down in the mountains this morning with that last batch of precipitation since it was coming in from the southwest, but I guess it was still supplying cooler air:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

633 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

…gusty southwest winds will help to slowly push cooler air into the area with rain changing to snow showers over the Adirondacks by tonight.

 

I looked into the discussion because I was seeing snow falling today on the mountain webcams, and the point forecasts indicate that temperatures at elevation don’t really move much above freezing from here on out.

 

The BTV NWS is certainly discussing that snow potential for the coming days – it doesn’t look outrageously potent in the modeling to me, but it seems like the duration is an important aspect; most of the models seem to be in the range of 1 to 2 inches of liquid equivalent for the Northern Greens before things wind down late on Sunday:

.SYNOPSIS...

Another storm system will impact our region on Wednesday into Thursday with the potential for a long duration accumulating snowfall event for the mountains of Vermont and northern New York. Much cooler temperatures develop on brisk westerly winds for Thursday into Friday.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 356 AM EST Monday...The center of a deepening low passes over southeast New England and into Maine on New Year`s Day and into the night, taking an ideal storm track for widespread snowfall. The only problem, despite being January, there will be no antecedent cold air, so the precipitation will only start as elevation dependent snowfall.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 356 AM EST Monday...The low that passes through on New Year`s lingers over Quebec for a few days and causes persistent cyclonic flow into the weekend. Saturated low and mid levels of the atmosphere past 10,000 feet will lead to almost continuous upslope snowfall in the mountains.

[Boston Bulldog]

BTV blew the upslope horn on the latest AFD

Overall, snow totals look to range from less than an inch in the
immediate valleys to 1-2 feet for the highest peaks. Most of the
snow will fall during the back end of the storm.

[J.Spin]

39 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

BTV blew the upslope horn on the latest AFD

Overall, snow totals look to range from less than an inch in the
immediate valleys to 1-2 feet for the highest peaks. Most of the
snow will fall during the back end of the storm.

I see they expanded the Winter Storm Watches as they had considered – they’ve added them here in the Northern Greens and down into the Central Greens. The latest BTV NWS maps are below:

[mreaves]

I posted this in the main banter thread also.

Behind the scenes at Burlington’s National Weather Service office, home to Vermont’s spokespeople for the skies

[J.Spin]

I just received a text alert that the Winter Storm Watches here in Vermont had been converted – Winter Storm Warnings along the spine of the Northern Greens, and Winter Weather Advisories in the surrounding areas. The updated Event Total Snowfall map from the BTV NWS is similar to the previous version, with areas of 12”-18” along the spine and a few pockets of 18”-24”. In the mountain point forecasts I’m generally seeing 1 to 2 feet of snowfall in the forecast at elevation as was mentioned earlier, and we should get their latest thoughts when they put out their next AFD.

[#NoPoles]

Winter weather advisories over on this side of the CT River. Discussion says 3-6 inches. Def elevation dependent and we have lost out on that the last few time. We could get 3-6. Or we could get gloppy white rain.

[#NoPoles]

It's a gloppy white rain, rain, sleety mix. Temp currently mid-upper 30s

[powderfreak]

38 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

It's a gloppy white rain, rain, sleety mix. Temp currently mid-upper 30s

We had a burst of heavy wet snow earlier this morning... even down into town the road was covered around 5:15am when I came in.  Surprisingly sporty driving.  However, once that initial band lifted northward and rates diminished, it's back over to rain or white rain below 1,500-2,000ft.  The trees are snow covered above 2,000ft with 1-2".

[#NoPoles]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We had a burst of heavy wet snow earlier this morning... even down into town the road was covered around 5:15am when I came in.  Surprisingly sporty driving.  However, once that initial band lifted northward and rates diminished, it's back over to rain or white rain below 1,500-2,000ft.  The trees are snow covered above 2,000ft with 1-2".

It was snow just before sunrise. We had a nice coating. Temps quickly jumped up to near 40 and every now and then we see some flakes or sleet pellets. Now it's just mirky and cloudy with passing patches of blue sky

[bwt3650]

Take the over on the upslope..great cycle incoming I think.


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[Boston Bulldog]

15 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Take the over on the upslope..great cycle incoming I think.


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Hoping it works out, though BTV did cut down totals a bit after mentioning a potential shorter duration event trend in their AFD.

[Boston Bulldog]

Western slope cashing in on blocked flow right now, ski resort cams show that at least some of this is leaking over to the summits