bwt3650 Posted October 27 Author Share Posted October 27 Killington north could legit start blowing over the next couple days, but don’t know if anyone will with the weds/thurs temps probably 60 even at the summits. Might be after the first week of November if looking for that sustained period of decent overnight temps, which is late.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 23 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Killington north could legit start blowing over the next couple days, but don’t know if anyone will with the weds/thurs temps probably 60 even at the summits. Might be after the first week of November if looking for that sustained period of decent overnight temps, which is late. . How worried is Killington about the WC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timp Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 First flakes of the season here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 27 Author Share Posted October 27 How worried is Killington about the WC?Has to be on their minds…I wouldn’t think panic at this point. Can really bury that trail in about 3 days if they get the right conditions and thanksgiving being so late this year helps, but yeah; if nothing promising by second week of November, I would be nervous. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 The first flakes of the season here at our site were back on the 16th with that last big snow event, but today marked the first accumulations I’ve seen here. Based on posts that are showing up in the thread though, it sounds like a lot of folks are getting snow today. Temperatures are certainly above freezing here in the valley, but the intensity of the precipitation is what brought on the accumulation when that cell on the radar came through. Definitely be on the lookout for flakes when these radar echoes move through, and with temperatures anticipated to drop down well into the 20s F as we progress through the evening, chances for accumulation should only improve as long as the precipitation remains around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Getting some light snow here but not sticking 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 First flakes of season at home. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 27 Author Share Posted October 27 Solid coating at Jay..looks like some more on the way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 Holy cow it’s sticking and it’s ripping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timp Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 Yeah nice surprise. Down to 32° and massive flakes have been sticking. Might be a 0.5” on the deck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 24 minutes ago, alex said: Holy cow it’s sticking and it’s ripping You’re gonna do well once the moisture from here gets over there… judging by 1500ft over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timp Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 Merging of the seasons 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 A few flakes made it down to me last evening too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 Beautiful morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 It’s been almost two weeks since our last round of snow that hit the valleys (see PF’s post above), but the snow potential for tomorrow night into Tuesday seems to be appearing on just about every short and medium-range model at this point. It looks likely that at least some elevations are going to see snow with this next event, and the BTV NWS forecast discussion talks about it. At the beginning of the month there wasn’t much in the medium-range models with respect to snow chances, but for several days now just about every system coming through the area on GFS runs shows some possible snow, so apparently November climatology is starting to take hold as we move past the first third of the month. Last year we’d already had three accumulating snowstorms by this point in the month, but that was definitely on the early side and ahead of average pace: we had our first storm of an inch or more on November 1st last year, and that’s a week ahead of average. Unlike last year though, we had accumulating snow to the valley bottoms in October this year, so that gave this year a bit of a jump with respect to early season accumulations. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Shower activity will redevelop Monday night as a cold front pushes through the region overnight, with a robust broken line of showers moving through overnight. Strong cold air advection will take place behind this feature, with temperatures dropping after midnight. Showers will become more focused across the western slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens as the winds become more northwesterly, becoming breezy behind the front. Snow levels will lower tomorrow night, with some snow mixing in, with light snow accumulations possible across the higher terrain, above 1500ft elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Following up on the recent snowfall, I was up at Bolton Valley yesterday and can pass along where accumulations sat at that point. I topped out in the 2,500-2,600’ elevation range during my time on the mountain, so I can speak to snow depths up to there. Accumulations began at around 1,600’ near the bottom of the Timberline area, and here’s a quick elevation profile report: 1,600’: Trace 2,000’: ~1” 2,500’: 2-3” Low angle slopes with manicured cutting and few rocks like Lower Turnpike were definitely skiable if you wanted to get out the rock skis, but I didn’t see any tracks, so it doesn’t look like there was anyone around who wanted to commit to those levels of snow at this point. I didn’t catch what their specific report of summit level accumulations were for this most recent system, but their season snowfall total as of today stands at 14 inches. It looks the next chance for snow or potentially other types of frozen precipitation is with the next clipper system coming through in the Monday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted November 16 Share Posted November 16 Weird warmth spike tonight that didnt happen everywhere. Went to 28 then to 40 fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 23 hours ago, dmcginvt said: Weird warmth spike tonight that didnt happen everywhere. Went to 28 then to 40 fast. I just drove home from camp, which is about 1400’ between Hardwick and Walcott. The car thermo was 36° when I left and 28° when I got down to Rt.15. Going up Rt.14 through the gulf to Woodbury, the temp spiked to 41° and then dropped to as low as 23° in North Montpelier. It was cool seeing the temps bounce around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 21 Author Share Posted November 21 GFS goes to town on the upslope many have said has been consistently missing over the last few years. Some decent liquid in a few of those as depicted. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 7 hours ago, bwt3650 said: GFS goes to town on the upslope many have said has been consistently missing over the last few years. Some decent liquid in a few of those as depicted. I know we had that most recent snow less than a week ago, but I’m surprised this current system and upcoming snow potential isn’t getting any discussion beyond your mention here. It looks like this storm is the start of a substantially different look in the models, but even just the next several days in the more immediate period with this system and soon after show a lot of snow potential. The local mountain forecasts have it really stacking up at elevation - the point forecast periods for above 3,000’ in the Mansfield area are coming in with 8-16” just through Saturday night. Even down at 2,700’ in the Bolton Valley area the numbers are 7-14” for that same period, so not much of a fall off dropping to that elevation. Then there’s snow in the forecast for most periods right out through Thanksgiving, and the medium range models keep it going right into the beginning of December. That’s pretty good timing with the Thanksgiving holiday week period kicking off tomorrow, and if even the low end of the accumulations come through, it’s going to be stacking up to the point that the usual natural snow terrain is going to come into play quickly. I guess we’ll see, but here’s some of the BTV NWS forecast discussion through the weekend, and there's more in the long term where they talk about the additional potential right through Thursday with varying snow levels: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 653 PM EST Thursday...Webcams have shown that Whiteface Mountain and Killington have both switched over to snow with temperatures between 28 and 30 degrees. Other summit sites remain between 33 and 35 degrees but those too will be dropping shortly as precipitation continues to fall through dry air and cools off the surface. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 PM EST Thursday...As both the coastal low and surface low shift further offshore late Friday night into Saturday morning, we will see wind shift back to a more climatological northwest direction which will then begin the upslope machine. Precipitation isn`t likely to be heavy Saturday or Sunday but with continued upslope flow, we could easily see 1-2 inches of accumulation every 6 hours along the western slopes that will add up over time. Snow levels on Saturday will drop to 1800 to 2200 feet which will allow for some mid-mountain snow accumulations but most of the population centers for the North Country will continue to see rain showers while the mountains get in on all the snow action. We will see snow levels drop to 1200 feet Saturday night which may allow for some very minor accumulations to occur along the foothills of the Green Mountains, but any accumulations will remain well under an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Snow levels definitely came down overnight in the Northern Greens as was suggested in the BTV NWS forecast discussion text I’d pasted in above. Checking the Bolton Valley webcams – there’s accumulating snow at the 3,150’ Vista Summit webcam, and it’s even snowing down to the main base at 2,100’ as seen on the 2,100’ main base webcam, although it’s not yet accumulating there. Snow levels will probably go up and down a bit in the coming days, but now that the mountain temperatures are down, the forecasts don’t show any substantial rises for a while, so they should just keep accumulating snow (or maybe frozen/mix depending on how that potential Tuesday system tracks). Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 713 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A brief break in precipitation is expected today before more elevationally dependent snow and rain spreads back through much of the region. This time, greater precipitation amounts will be focused over central and eastern Vermont, where light snow accumulations are expected primarily tomorrow morning. Then a breezy, upslope pattern will develop, supporting several inches of snow through the weekend in the northern Green Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 This morning, I received a text alert that we’d been put under a Winter Weather Advisory. It was initially surprising and seemed a bit early for anything that might happen later in the week, but it’s been posted to cover the potential freezing precipitation that could occur with the system coming into the area tomorrow. I believe this is the first Winter Weather Advisory of the season for our county area, with the intent to keep people apprised of the potential travel issues tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 I'm not sure if i should be posting in the NNE forum or the regular SNE active one? 2 systems to watch. Tomorrow's could be a sneaky wintry mix or freezing rain to start at least. 7pm and 33.2 with a dew of 27.3F. We will see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 From 10 years ago today...may have been a harbinger of the winter to follow. Today's rain hopefully is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Map from BTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 I was surprised when early this afternoon we were put under a Winter Storm Warning, especially since we were never even under a Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory in association with this upcoming Thanksgiving system, but apparently the more northerly trends in the modeling came on rather quickly. The latest BTV NWS maps are below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 4 minutes ago, mreaves said: Map from BTV Ahh, I see you posted the projected accumulations map as well when I was putting my post together - I wasn't sure if anyone else would be updating on the storm because it seemed sort of dead aside from the occasional post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: Ahh, I see you posted the projected accumulations map as well when I was putting my post together - I wasn't sure if anyone else would be updating on the storm because it seemed sort of dead aside from the occasional post. I’m actually in northern Maine for the holiday. 6”-8” for me here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 28 Author Share Posted November 28 I was surprised when early this afternoon we were put under a Winter Storm Warning, especially since we were never even under a Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory in association with this upcoming Thanksgiving system, but apparently the more northerly trends in the modeling came on rather quickly. The latest BTV NWS maps are below.Lots of bread and butter post storm too!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcglups Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 the thanksgiving weekend will certainly have a winter feel, happy turkey to all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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