bwt3650 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Some flakes for the peaks, and overnight freezes in the forecast. After the last two seasons, the bar isn't particularly high so let's hope for a great season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 First flakes for some of the peaks today/tonight and possibly tomorrow. Upslope flow and midlevel temps cool to bring snow down into the highest terrain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: First flakes for some of the peaks today/tonight and possibly tomorrow. Upslope flow and midlevel temps cool to bring snow down into the highest terrain. As others noted, we actually had our first VT flakes of the season back on September 9th based on reports and video from Jay Peak. The flakes from that cool period last month sort of flew under the radar though – it was probably a week later before I ended up hearing about it by chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 26 minutes ago, J.Spin said: As others noted, we actually had our first VT flakes of the season back on September 9th based on reports and video from Jay Peak. The flakes from that cool period last month sort of flew under the radar though – it was probably a week later before I ended up hearing about it by chance. First snow last night on Mansfield. Snow down to 3,600ft. Currently at 3:30pm we are sitting 35F at both the top of the Quad and Gondola wx stations. Still some outside the windows up at the Cliff House when I was up there late morning. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 7 hours ago, bwt3650 said: Some flakes for the peaks, and overnight freezes in the forecast. After the last two seasons, the bar isn't particularly high so let's hope for a great season. Cheers to that! For this year, I wish for the upslope machine to return to above average levels of production. Seems like that's been somewhat absent in the central/northern greens the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 If the NNE cold season thread is starting, it must be that time of year, so I figured it was a good time to put together the final numbers at our site for the 2023-2024 winter season. It turns out that we’re already well into the new snow season here in Vermont, since we had snow back on September 9th at Jay Peak., and I guess we’re already into our next snow event and first accumulations from the current upper level low based on PF’s recent report and photos from Mt. Mansfield. Now for some data and highlights from the 2023-2024 winter season at our site. In terms of overall snowfall, it was a solid, respectable season – snowfall came in at 156.7”, which is near average and an improvement of about a half foot above the previous season. As shown in the seasonal snowfall progression plot below, we spent more time behind average snowfall pace than ahead of it, only catching up to or slightly surpassing average pace during the strong November and January periods. The very strong finish in March and April is quite evident on the plot and that undeniably helped the season recover from what would have been a subpar result. The season snowfall rank of 8 out of 18 seasons puts it just in the top half of the pack and is another nod to the decently average nature of the season. November was an interesting month last season – it ended up being quite a standout, but in a stealthy way. The November snowfall of 19.9” was only a few inches above average, so not especially notable, but November quietly set a different record for the month: days with snowfall. November 2023 had 19 days with new snow, besting the previous record of 18 days for November 2018. In line with the numerous snowfall days, there was snow on the ground for 19 days of the month. That’s not a record by any means (three other seasons have 20+ days of November snow cover), but it’s well above the average of 12 November days with snow on the ground, and with the initial accumulating snows moving in right on the first of the month, it certainly helped crank up the holiday vibe right from the start. The continuous season snowpack did start on November 19th, but it wound up being touch and go in December when the snowpack start date almost reset because of the slow second half of the month. We had 10 accumulating snowstorms this past November, which is above the average of 6 storms. That’s a robust performance, but it only earns an honorable mention because along with November 2018 it tied for second place behind November 2019 with 12 storms. On a related November note, this past season marked the eighth white Thanksgiving in a row, and that now brings the average up to near 75% for snow on the ground for turkey day. January was the other month that claimed some records for the season. January snowfall of 46.1” was above average, but only modestly so, since it was still within 1 S.D. So, while not special in terms of overall snowfall, it was in other snowfall-related categories where the month set one record and tied another. The record set was the number of storms for the month with 19, and that total didn’t just break the previous record, it absolutely smashed it. The 19 recorded storms blew right past the second-place contender of January 2023, which had 14 storms. In fact, this past January has now assumed the top position in that category for any month – the previous record holder was December 2013 with 16 storms. It wasn’t that this past January was especially notable with respect to upslope snowfall, it just wound up presenting a solid parade of both larger and smaller systems, and the details for those 19 January storms can be found in the detailed 2023-2024 storm list below. In line with all those storms, the record that was tied this past January was days with snowfall at 29. Even though this past January only tied January 2020 for snowfall days, it’s still an impressive number when you think about it because that means there were only two days during the entire month where it didn’t snow. That’s some strong consistency with respect to snowfall, even for around here in the Northern Greens. Mother Nature certainly decided to take care of the VT snow globe requirements this past January. Total Snowfall: 156.7” Season Snowfall Rank: 8 of 18 October Snowfall: Trace November Snowfall: 19.9” December Snowfall: 13.0” January Snowfall: 46.1” February Snowfall: 21.4” March Snowfall: 42.1” April Snowfall: 14.2” May Snowfall: 0.0” Total Days with Snowfall: 99 October Days with Snowfall: 1 November Days with Snowfall: 19 December Days with Snowfall: 15 January Days with Snowfall: 29 February Days with Snowfall: 17 March Days with Snowfall: 11 April Days with Snowfall: 7 May Days with Snowfall: 0 Snowstorms: 54 October Storms: 0 November Storms: 10 December Storms: 8 January Storms: 19 February Storms: 10 March Storms: 4 April Storms: 3 May Storms: 0 Average Snowfall per Storm: 2.9” Largest Storm:15.9” 2nd Largest Storm: 13.9” 3rd Largest Storm: 12.5” 4th Largest Storm: 11.2” 5th Largest Storm: 10.4” Sum of 5 Largest Storms: 63.9” Storms ≥10": 5 Date of Largest Storm: 3/9/24 Earliest Frozen Precipitation: 10/29/23 Earliest Accumulating Snowfall: 11/1/23 Earliest 1" Storm: 11/1/23 Earliest 2" Storm: 11/9/23 Earliest 3" Storm: 11/22/23 Earliest 4" Storm: 11/28/23 Earliest 6" Storm: 12/12/23 Earliest 8" Storm: 1/7/24 Earliest 10" Storm: 1/8/24 Earliest 12" Storm: 3/11/24 Latest Accumulating Snowfall: 4/22/24 Latest Frozen Precipitation: 4/25/24 Length of Snowfall Season: 174 days Start of Season Snowpack: 11/19/23 October days with Snowpack: 0 November days with Snowpack: 19 December days with Snowpack: 31 January days with Snowpack: 31 February days with Snowpack: 29 March days with Snowpack: 31 April days with Snowpack: 12 May days with Snowpack: 0 Days with >0" Snowpack: 153 Days with ≥1" Snowpack: 103 Days with ≥6" Snowpack: 61 Days with ≥12" Snowpack: 15 Days with ≥24" Snowpack: 0 Days with ≥36" Snowpack: 0 Max Snow Depth: 16.0” Date of Max Snow Depth: 1/17/24 End of Season Snowpack: 4/11/24 Continuous Snowpack Season: 145 days Snow-Depth Days: 768.0 inch-days Total liquid equivalent: 28.06” Frozen liquid equivalent: 12.76” % Frozen L.E.: 45.5% Total Snow/Total Liquid Ratio: 5.58 Total Water Content: 17.9% Total Snow/Frozen Liquid Ratio: 12.28 Frozen Water Content: 8.1% 2023-2024 Winter Storm List 11/1/23: 1.5” Decaying shortwave trough 11/7/23: 0.4” Low pressure system passing through southern Canada 11/9/23: 2.0” Surface low moving across the Adirondacks and through Vermont 11/13/23: 1.1” Low pressure passing well north of region 11/19/23: 1.7” Shortwave rounding the base of longwave trough centered over Northeastern U.S. 11/21/23: 3.9” Low pressure from Great Lakes/Ontario redeveloping into coastal low traveling through southern New England 11/24/23: 0.2” Cold frontal passage 11/26/23: 3.7” Winter Storm Cait - Low pressure redeveloping off Mid Atlantic Coast and lifting northeastward through New England 11/27/23: 1.0” Lake-effect enhanced snow showers from Lake Ontario 11/28/23: 4.4” Weak cold front swinging through the region 12/3/23: 2.1” Low pressure slowly trekking along the international border 12/5/23: 1.4” Upper-level trough passing south of region with several pieces of shortwave energy rounding the base 12/10/23: 6.0” Strong, dynamic storm with low pressure passing over eastern Massachusetts 12/12/23: 2.2” Cold frontal passage with northwest flow & squalls 12/19/23: 0.2” Upper-level low swinging through the area 12/21/23: 0.1” Flakes blowing over from Lake Champlain lake-effect snow band 12/23/23: 0.5” Decaying mid/upper-level cyclonic circulation north of Lake Ontario, with bands of moisture rotating across our area 12/29/23: 0.5” Weak low pressure scooting along the international border dragging a weak cold front along in its wake 1/1/24: 0.6” Localized Stowe & Waterbury Vermont snow bands 1/3/24: 1.5” Sharpening upper-level trough moving in from the west with cold front 1/5/24: 0.7” Weak cold front dropping south across the area 1/6/24: 0.1” Shortwave energy with weak frontal boundary dropping through northern New York and Vermont 1/6/24: 11.2” Winter Storm Ember - Deepening low pressure system off the Delmarva peninsula tracking along the New England coast 1/9/24: 8.9” Winter Storm Finn - Powerful low-pressure system pushing into the Great Lakes 1/11/24: 0.2” Moist westerly flow off Lake Ontario 1/11/24: 1.8” Weak low pressure/upper-level shortwave traversing the international border 1/13/24: 1.7” Winter Storm Gerri - Powerful storm system lifting across the central Great Lakes 1/14/24: 1.7” Ontario lake-effect moisture and embedded snow squalls 1/16/24: 8.1” Winter Storm Heather - Intensifying coastal storm moving from mid-Atlantic to Cape Cod 1/17/24: 0.2” Lake effect snow showers 1/18/24: 3.2” Arctic cold front 1/20/24: 1.4” Surface trough with relatively deep moisture pushing south over the international border 1/23/24: 2.7” Winter Storm Jarvis - Stalled frontal boundary from central New York state to southern New England moving north across the area 1/26/24: 0.3” Surface low pressure tracking east-northeast across the Catskills and coastal New England 1/27/24: 0.1” Upper-level trough passing across the North Country 1/27/24: 0.5” Weak confluence aloft from combination of northerly and northeasterly flows 1/28/24: 1.2” Coastal low pressure tracking within the benchmark and upper-level low crossing the region 2/12/24: 0.1” Frontal boundary across southern Quebec 2/13/24: 4.3” Potent shortwave passing through upper-level flow 2/15/24: 10.4” Quick moving moisture-ridden clipper 2/17/24: 2.7” Shortwave swinging through the BTV NWS forecast area 2/18/24: 0.2” Lake effect snow with south/southwest flow 2/18/24: 1.6” Arctic boundary with snow showers and embedded heavier snow squalls 2/20/24: 0.4” Light snow showers on northwest flow 2/22/24: 0.5” Weak low pressure tracking through the North Country 2/26/24: 0.9” Weak wave of low pressure moving through the area 2/28/24: 0.3” Strong cold frontal passage across the region 3/9/24: 15.9” Powerful late winter storm with deepening low passing through southern/central New England becoming vertically stacked in central/northern Maine 3/18/24: 5.7” Polar longwave trough with upper-level low pressure spinning just northwest of Montreal 3/20/24: 8.0” Potent piece of northern stream shortwave energy 3/23/24: 12.5” Winter Storm Ronnie - shortwave in northern stream phasing with energy from a southern stream system 4/3/24: 13.9” Winter Storm Tormund - Secondary area of low pressure forming over Chesapeake Bay and tracking through eastern Massachusetts 4/20/24: 0.2” Cold front and potent upper-level trough 4/22/24: 0.1” Strong cold front 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: First snow last night on Mansfield. Snow down to 3,600ft. Currently at 3:30pm we are sitting 35F at both the top of the Quad and Gondola wx stations. Still some outside the windows up at the Cliff House when I was up there late morning. That’s great, and I did a quick check on the data I have, and October 9th is right on track for first accumulating snow on Mansfield – the mean date is October 11th, and the median date is October 10th. Last year was a bit on the later side on October 22nd, but the year before was very similar to this one on October 8th. I’ll have to put this latest data point into the data set and plot at some point when I get a chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, MRVexpat said: Cheers to that! For this year, I wish for the upslope machine to return to above average levels of production. Seems like that's been somewhat absent in the central/northern greens the last few years. Cheers indeed. I just did a quick text search through the details of last season’s storms that were posed above, and upslope didn’t come up once. That doesn’t mean we didn’t have any upslope snow – it’s often baked in as part of the back side of storm cycles, but it’s at least a sign that we didn’t have any storms that were upslope-focused enough to make it a major component of the storm description. And, I did note that even that past January with snow on 29 out of 31 days wasn’t all that notable with respect to upslope snowfall, so that’s another sign. It’s tough enough to dissect upslope snowfall out from total snowfall that even I don’t try to do it, so you need to go by tenor/feel, but it does feel like we haven’t had an “upslope-heavy” season in a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSnow Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I was just up in northern NH, not too far from Stowe, VT. Yet it was really warm when I was there. I missed out on the fun. D: The nights are getting cooler, perhaps even chilly down here in CT. I'm loving sleeping under the covers. No chance of flakes here anytime soon, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 39 minutes ago, J.Spin said: That’s great, and I did a quick check on the data I have, and October 9th is right on track for first accumulating snow on Mansfield – the mean date is October 11th, and the median date is October 10th. Last year was a bit on the later side on October 22nd, but the year before was very similar to this one on October 8th. I’ll have to put this latest data point into the data set and plot at some point when I get a chance. I’m coming down from top of Spruce and it was snowing nicely up there. Not sticking but I was right at the real snow line. You can see in this photo how the visibility changes to that bright white, low vis band where it’s 100% good flakes and snow. It was right around 3,200ft. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 IF those temps on the gfs held, there is, in theory, a window in the next 10-14 days killington could probably blow open rime and reason on the north ridge. Not saying it would stay open straight through, but might be a power move and message by the new private ownership to get the first October open in quite a few seasons. Even if they couldn’t hold them open into November, might be worth the publicity and marketing…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 If the NNE cold season thread is starting, it must be that time of year, so I figured it was a good time to put together the final numbers at our site for the 2023-2024 winter season. It turns out that we’re already well into the new snow season here in Vermont, since we had snow back on September 9th at Jay Peak., and I guess we’re already into our next snow event and first accumulations from the current upper level low based on PF’s recent report and photos from Mt. Mansfield. Now for some data and highlights from the 2023-2024 winter season at our site. In terms of overall snowfall, it was a solid, respectable season – snowfall came in at 156.7”, which is near average and an improvement of about a half foot above the previous season. As shown in the seasonal snowfall progression plot below, we spent more time behind average snowfall pace than ahead of it, only catching up to or slightly surpassing average pace during the strong November and January periods. The very strong finish in March and April is quite evident on the plot and that undeniably helped the season recover from what would have been a subpar result. The season snowfall rank of 8 out of 18 seasons puts it just in the top half of the pack and is another nod to the decently average nature of the season.November was an interesting month last season – it ended up being quite a standout, but in a stealthy way. The November snowfall of 19.9” was only a few inches above average, so not especially notable, but November quietly set a different record for the month: days with snowfall. November 2023 had 19 days with new snow, besting the previous record of 18 days for November 2018. In line with the numerous snowfall days, there was snow on the ground for 19 days of the month. That’s not a record by any means (three other seasons have 20+ days of November snow cover), but it’s well above the average of 12 November days with snow on the ground, and with the initial accumulating snows moving in right on the first of the month, it certainly helped crank up the holiday vibe right from the start. The continuous season snowpack did start on November 19th, but it wound up being touch and go in December when the snowpack start date almost reset because of the slow second half of the month. We had 10 accumulating snowstorms this past November, which is above the average of 6 storms. That’s a robust performance, but it only earns an honorable mention because along with November 2018 it tied for second place behind November 2019 with 12 storms. On a related November note, this past season marked the eighth white Thanksgiving in a row, and that now brings the average up to near 75% for snow on the ground for turkey day. January was the other month that claimed some records for the season. January snowfall of 46.1” was above average, but only modestly so, since it was still within 1 S.D. So, while not special in terms of overall snowfall, it was in other snowfall-related categories where the month set one record and tied another. The record set was the number of storms for the month with 19, and that total didn’t just break the previous record, it absolutely smashed it. The 19 recorded storms blew right past the second-place contender of January 2023, which had 14 storms. In fact, this past January has now assumed the top position in that category for any month – the previous record holder was December 2013 with 16 storms. It wasn’t that this past January was especially notable with respect to upslope snowfall, it just wound up presenting a solid parade of both larger and smaller systems, and the details for those 19 January storms can be found in the detailed 2023-2024 storm list below. In line with all those storms, the record that was tied this past January was days with snowfall at 29. Even though this past January only tied January 2020 for snowfall days, it’s still an impressive number when you think about it because that means there were only two days during the entire month where it didn’t snow. That’s some strong consistency with respect to snowfall, even for around here in the Northern Greens. Mother Nature certainly decided to take care of the VT snow globe requirements this past January. Total Snowfall: 156.7” Season Snowfall Rank: 8 of 18 October Snowfall: Trace November Snowfall: 19.9” December Snowfall: 13.0” January Snowfall: 46.1” February Snowfall: 21.4” March Snowfall: 42.1” April Snowfall: 14.2” May Snowfall: 0.0” Total Days with Snowfall: 99 October Days with Snowfall: 1November Days with Snowfall: 19 December Days with Snowfall: 15January Days with Snowfall: 29 February Days with Snowfall: 17 March Days with Snowfall: 11 April Days with Snowfall: 7 May Days with Snowfall: 0 Snowstorms: 54 October Storms: 0 November Storms: 10 December Storms: 8January Storms: 19 February Storms: 10 March Storms: 4 April Storms: 3 May Storms: 0 Average Snowfall per Storm: 2.9” Largest Storm:15.9” 2nd Largest Storm: 13.9” 3rd Largest Storm: 12.5” 4th Largest Storm: 11.2” 5th Largest Storm: 10.4” Sum of 5 Largest Storms: 63.9” Storms ≥10": 5 Date of Largest Storm: 3/9/24 Earliest Frozen Precipitation: 10/29/23 Earliest Accumulating Snowfall: 11/1/23 Earliest 1" Storm: 11/1/23 Earliest 2" Storm: 11/9/23 Earliest 3" Storm: 11/22/23 Earliest 4" Storm: 11/28/23 Earliest 6" Storm: 12/12/23 Earliest 8" Storm: 1/7/24 Earliest 10" Storm: 1/8/24 Earliest 12" Storm: 3/11/24 Latest Accumulating Snowfall: 4/22/24 Latest Frozen Precipitation: 4/25/24 Length of Snowfall Season: 174 days Start of Season Snowpack: 11/19/23 October days with Snowpack: 0 November days with Snowpack: 19 December days with Snowpack: 31 January days with Snowpack: 31 February days with Snowpack: 29 March days with Snowpack: 31 April days with Snowpack: 12 May days with Snowpack: 0 Days with >0" Snowpack: 153 Days with ≥1" Snowpack: 103 Days with ≥6" Snowpack: 61 Days with ≥12" Snowpack: 15 Days with ≥24" Snowpack: 0 Days with ≥36" Snowpack: 0 Max Snow Depth: 16.0” Date of Max Snow Depth: 1/17/24 End of Season Snowpack: 4/11/24 Continuous Snowpack Season: 145 days Snow-Depth Days: 768.0 inch-days Total liquid equivalent: 28.06” Frozen liquid equivalent: 12.76” % Frozen L.E.: 45.5% Total Snow/Total Liquid Ratio: 5.58 Total Water Content: 17.9% Total Snow/Frozen Liquid Ratio: 12.28 Frozen Water Content: 8.1% 2023-2024 Winter Storm List 11/1/23: 1.5” Decaying shortwave trough 11/7/23: 0.4” Low pressure system passing through southern Canada 11/9/23: 2.0” Surface low moving across the Adirondacks and through Vermont 11/13/23: 1.1” Low pressure passing well north of region 11/19/23: 1.7” Shortwave rounding the base of longwave trough centered over Northeastern U.S. 11/21/23: 3.9” Low pressure from Great Lakes/Ontario redeveloping into coastal low traveling through southern New England 11/24/23: 0.2” Cold frontal passage 11/26/23: 3.7” Winter Storm Cait - Low pressure redeveloping off Mid Atlantic Coast and lifting northeastward through New England 11/27/23: 1.0” Lake-effect enhanced snow showers from Lake Ontario 11/28/23: 4.4” Weak cold front swinging through the region 12/3/23: 2.1” Low pressure slowly trekking along the international border 12/5/23: 1.4” Upper-level trough passing south of region with several pieces of shortwave energy rounding the base 12/10/23: 6.0” Strong, dynamic storm with low pressure passing over eastern Massachusetts 12/12/23: 2.2” Cold frontal passage with northwest flow & squalls 12/19/23: 0.2” Upper-level low swinging through the area 12/21/23: 0.1” Flakes blowing over from Lake Champlain lake-effect snow band 12/23/23: 0.5” Decaying mid/upper-level cyclonic circulation north of Lake Ontario, with bands of moisture rotating across our area 12/29/23: 0.5” Weak low pressure scooting along the international border dragging a weak cold front along in its wake 1/1/24: 0.6” Localized Stowe & Waterbury Vermont snow bands 1/3/24: 1.5” Sharpening upper-level trough moving in from the west with cold front 1/5/24: 0.7” Weak cold front dropping south across the area 1/6/24: 0.1” Shortwave energy with weak frontal boundary dropping through northern New York and Vermont 1/6/24: 11.2” Winter Storm Ember - Deepening low pressure system off the Delmarva peninsula tracking along the New England coast 1/9/24: 8.9” Winter Storm Finn - Powerful low-pressure system pushing into the Great Lakes 1/11/24: 0.2” Moist westerly flow off Lake Ontario 1/11/24: 1.8” Weak low pressure/upper-level shortwave traversing the international border 1/13/24: 1.7” Winter Storm Gerri - Powerful storm system lifting across the central Great Lakes 1/14/24: 1.7” Ontario lake-effect moisture and embedded snow squalls 1/16/24: 8.1” Winter Storm Heather - Intensifying coastal storm moving from mid-Atlantic to Cape Cod 1/17/24: 0.2” Lake effect snow showers 1/18/24: 3.2” Arctic cold front 1/20/24: 1.4” Surface trough with relatively deep moisture pushing south over the international border 1/23/24: 2.7” Winter Storm Jarvis - Stalled frontal boundary from central New York state to southern New England moving north across the area 1/26/24: 0.3” Surface low pressure tracking east-northeast across the Catskills and coastal New England 1/27/24: 0.1” Upper-level trough passing across the North Country 1/27/24: 0.5” Weak confluence aloft from combination of northerly and northeasterly flows 1/28/24: 1.2” Coastal low pressure tracking within the benchmark and upper-level low crossing the region 2/12/24: 0.1” Frontal boundary across southern Quebec 2/13/24: 4.3” Potent shortwave passing through upper-level flow 2/15/24: 10.4” Quick moving moisture-ridden clipper 2/17/24: 2.7” Shortwave swinging through the BTV NWS forecast area 2/18/24: 0.2” Lake effect snow with south/southwest flow 2/18/24: 1.6” Arctic boundary with snow showers and embedded heavier snow squalls 2/20/24: 0.4” Light snow showers on northwest flow 2/22/24: 0.5” Weak low pressure tracking through the North Country 2/26/24: 0.9” Weak wave of low pressure moving through the area 2/28/24: 0.3” Strong cold frontal passage across the region 3/9/24: 15.9” Powerful late winter storm with deepening low passing through southern/central New England becoming vertically stacked in central/northern Maine 3/18/24: 5.7” Polar longwave trough with upper-level low pressure spinning just northwest of Montreal 3/20/24: 8.0” Potent piece of northern stream shortwave energy 3/23/24: 12.5” Winter Storm Ronnie - shortwave in northern stream phasing with energy from a southern stream system 4/3/24: 13.9” Winter Storm Tormund - Secondary area of low pressure forming over Chesapeake Bay and tracking through eastern Massachusetts 4/20/24: 0.2” Cold front and potent upper-level trough 4/22/24: 0.1” Strong cold frontThis is a dumb (because I know the answer will be yes) question, but do you have first flakes data for the northern greens recently? That quick Jay burst in September, though clearly not record type stuff, seemed early.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 1 hour ago, bwt3650 said: This is a dumb (because I know the answer will be yes) question, but do you have first flakes data for the northern greens recently? That quick Jay burst in September, though clearly not record type stuff, seemed early. . Using the former Mansfield COOP, where "new" snowfall records ended in 2018 when WCAX stopped having a human up there 24/7... there's been traces of snowfall in late August up there. In 1986, 4.0" fell on September 16th. That's the earliest like legit snowfall. I will say, I don't think there was any real accumulating snow in September in the 2000s. The average date has been moving later and later, with the past 20 years seeing first trace or higher happening in October. Now that doesn't mean there weren't quick passing snow showers though, like what was caught on video at Jay. But it seemed to be a thing that happened with some semi-regularity 40-50 years ago, accumulating in September. Another thing is like, there's probably plenty of early season snow showers like that, which weren't seen or recorded. That Jay snow shower was wild, because it probably precipitated for only 10 minutes, if that. And just happened to be someone there with a phone. It could've happened on any number of peaks too and not be caught. I often think of that with regards to weather observations. Before there was social media and cell phones who can capture video, upload it immediately, etc... no one probably heard about these things in the past. They definitely happened, but that's why the Mansfield COOP data was so important. It was a stable daily reporting cadence at 4,000ft by a human. And why the MWN observatory is so important to continue. Today... without a cell phone and in the right place at the right time, would we have seen the snow accumulation on Mansfield? What about if I wasn't able to capture video of it this evening to share? Not it's like "pics or vid or it didn't happen." Technology makes observations of transient weather so much better today. This stuff happened back in the day, earlier in the season too, but it's hard to track those data points. I miss the Mansfield COOP daily "new snow" reading for these things. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 1 hour ago, bwt3650 said: IF those temps on the gfs held, there is, in theory, a window in the next 10-14 days killington could probably blow open rime and reason on the north ridge. Not saying it would stay open straight through, but might be a power move and message by the new private ownership to get the first October open in quite a few seasons. Even if they couldn’t hold them open into November, might be worth the publicity and marketing… . They'll go for it if they can for sure. I think central and southern VT are going to get the best snow this evening now. Vort max is a bit south. However, up north here we should see a bit of upslope response as the core of the cold comes in on NW flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 4 hours ago, bwt3650 said: This is a dumb (because I know the answer will be yes) question, but do you have first flakes data for the northern greens recently? That quick Jay burst in September, though clearly not record type stuff, seemed early. 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Using the former Mansfield COOP, where "new" snowfall records ended in 2018 when WCAX stopped having a human up there 24/7... there's been traces of snowfall in late August up there. In 1986, 4.0" fell on September 16th. That's the earliest like legit snowfall. I will say, I don't think there was any real accumulating snow in September in the 2000s. The average date has been moving later and later, with the past 20 years seeing first trace or higher happening in October. Now that doesn't mean there weren't quick passing snow showers though, like what was caught on video at Jay. But it seemed to be a thing that happened with some semi-regularity 40-50 years ago, accumulating in September. Another thing is like, there's probably plenty of early season snow showers like that, which weren't seen or recorded. That Jay snow shower was wild, because it probably precipitated for only 10 minutes, if that. And just happened to be someone there with a phone. It could've happened on any number of peaks too and not be caught. I often think of that with regards to weather observations. Before there was social media and cell phones who can capture video, upload it immediately, etc... no one probably heard about these things in the past. They definitely happened, but that's why the Mansfield COOP data was so important. It was a stable daily reporting cadence at 4,000ft by a human. And why the MWN observatory is so important to continue. Today... without a cell phone and in the right place at the right time, would we have seen the snow accumulation on Mansfield? What about if I wasn't able to capture video of it this evening to share? Not it's like "pics or vid or it didn't happen." Technology makes observations of transient weather so much better today. This stuff happened back in the day, earlier in the season too, but it's hard to track those data points. I miss the Mansfield COOP daily "new snow" reading for these things. PF’s post explains it quite well. What we really have for consistent data regarding first snows each year in the Northern Greens is the first date of Mansfield accumulations – like what PF showed in his images today. Just witnessing first flakes in the air without accumulations is incredibly ephemeral, so you’re just not going to catch that unless you happen to have someone in the right place at exactly the right time, and they decide to document it like that person did at Jay Peak back in September. I always try to document these September and October snows in our area on my website for posterity, so if you head there and check the posts from September and October each year (there’s an index that lets you click on any month from any year in which there were posts), you can get a sense for how that season’s first snows went down. I can’t recall the last time I had a first post with only flakes like I did this year – it happens, but it’s just infrequent, based on luck, and nothing that we catch with regularity. Since the average date of first Mansfield snow accumulations is right around now (Oct 11th ± 14 days according to the data set), I’m sure the average date of first flakes is earlier, but it’s hard to say how much earlier. Some years, first flakes and first accumulations are from the same event, and sometimes it’s like what happened this year with the first flakes well out ahead of the date of first visible accumulations. It would be fun to know those dates for first flakes every year, but that’s tough to get without 24/7 human observation or some sort of very sophisticated video monitoring, etc. on the peaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Turned the heat on last evening for the first time this season. It begins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 9 hours ago, J.Spin said: PF’s post explains it quite well. What we really have for consistent data regarding first snows each year in the Northern Greens is the first date of Mansfield accumulations – like what PF showed in his images today. Just witnessing first flakes in the air without accumulations is incredibly ephemeral, so you’re just not going to catch that unless you happen to have someone in the right place at exactly the right time, and they decide to document it like that person did at Jay Peak back in September. I always try to document these September and October snows in our area on my website for posterity, so if you head there and check the posts from September and October each year (there’s an index that lets you click on any month from any year in which there were posts), you can get a sense for how that season’s first snows went down. I can’t recall the last time I had a first post with only flakes like I did this year – it happens, but it’s just infrequent, based on luck, and nothing that we catch with regularity. Since the average date of first Mansfield snow accumulations is right around now (Oct 11th ± 14 days according to the data set), I’m sure the average date of first flakes is earlier, but it’s hard to say how much earlier. Some years, first flakes and first accumulations are from the same event, and sometimes it’s like what happened this year with the first flakes well out ahead of the date of first visible accumulations. It would be fun to know those dates for first flakes every year, but that’s tough to get without 24/7 human observation or some sort of very sophisticated video monitoring, etc. on the peaks. Thanks for the recap - among many other things it confirmed that retention stunk. Our (usually) pack-retaining site had 111% of average snowfall but only 67% of SDDs. That's by far the lowest SDD percentage for a winter with AN snow and only the late-blooming 06-07 came relatively close. Touched 32 this morning, 1st of the season so we're on our way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 Friday afternoon question... Is the foliage past peak in the Whites? It looks like it would be and this weekend's weather looks extreme at altitude. Lots of people coming up to hike and not prepared for the extreme cold, high winds and icy/snow shower conditions. Perhaps Sunday night and Monday the first snow high up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 15 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Friday afternoon question... Is the foliage past peak in the Whites? It looks like it would be and this weekend's weather looks extreme at altitude. Lots of people coming up to hike and not prepared for the extreme cold, high winds and icy/snow shower conditions. Perhaps Sunday night and Monday the first snow high up? It’s 100% past peak on Mansfield so I’d expect the same in the Whites. Its peak in the 500-1800ft range here locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s 100% past peak on Mansfield so I’d expect the same in the Whites. Its peak in the 500-1800ft range here locally. Thanks Scott. I figured it was passed. There are going to be long lines of cars going over the Kanc and through the notches this weekend that will be disappointed. The wind post fropa will take most of the leaves down that remain. We are not quite peak here in the NW lakes region of NH. Usually my peak is Oct 17th but with wind tomorrow and then rain perhaps today is as good as we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 Isn’t the Kanc past peak every Columbus weekend? I feel like the week before is usually the time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: Isn’t the Kanc past peak every Columbus weekend? I feel like the week before is usually the time to go. Yeah it’s the same up here. Everyone shows up this weekend and it’s always past peak. Every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Friday afternoon question... Is the foliage past peak in the Whites? It looks like it would be and this weekend's weather looks extreme at altitude. Lots of people coming up to hike and not prepared for the extreme cold, high winds and icy/snow shower conditions. Perhaps Sunday night and Monday the first snow high up? Peak is well passed in the Maine foothills. The Whites are a week or more earlier. Except for oaks and some holdouts, it's probably close to stick season there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 It's almost always peak here in the valley (west slopes greens and east slopes of Taconics)Columbus weekend, so it normally works out well for the peepers. The SVT high plateau area down by Mitch is is past though. I have not been up there recently, but would guess the Stratton and elevated East Slopes are probably as well already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 Just drive down to Pittsfield, VT through the mountains. Past peak but still lots of color. The road from Rt.12 in Bethel over to Rt. 100 in Rochester goes up to 2120’. Some beautiful views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 11 Author Share Posted October 11 There’s some color for those who enjoy staring at leaves, but def a lot of drop.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 On 10/10/2024 at 10:07 AM, tamarack said: Thanks for the recap - among many other things it confirmed that retention stunk. Our (usually) pack-retaining site had 111% of average snowfall but only 67% of SDDs. That's by far the lowest SDD percentage for a winter with AN snow and only the late-blooming 06-07 came relatively close. I’m glad you had a chance to check out the summary. Indeed, it was quite a poor season with respect to snowpack retention – we had roughly average snowfall but about half the average SDD, so it was a notable disparity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 9 hours ago, powderfreak said: It’s 100% past peak on Mansfield so I’d expect the same in the Whites. Its peak in the 500-1800ft range here locally. I was up at Bolton Valley today and would say that description is spot on for around here. Up on the mountain it was clearly past peak, but of course it was still beautiful in the forest with plenty of leaves to enjoy. The valleys around here are still in roughly peak form, so the visitors that come up for this big weekend at least have plentiful peak foliage down low to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 11 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I’m glad you had a chance to check out the summary. Indeed, it was quite a poor season with respect to snowpack retention – we had roughly average snowfall but about half the average SDD, so it was a notable disparity. Those numbers fit with the overall thermal trends over the past several years. Climate change is a loaded phrase, I’m not trying to make a political statement when I mention warmth. I think scientifically it’s interesting to see the current decadal trends. Our snowfall is going to be there; a +4 is still cold enough to snow in the winter. In fact, a lack of cool/dry air masses likely increase cold season precip… but the retention is a metric that takes a hit by a higher mean temperature. The higher elevations will be less prone to this change, the elevations that are still spending the longest time below 0C throughout the season. -13C or -3C… it’s below freezing. Down low it can be tougher to sustain a deep pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 9 hours ago, powderfreak said: Those numbers fit with the overall thermal trends over the past several years. Climate change is a loaded phrase, I’m not trying to make a political statement when I mention warmth. I think scientifically it’s interesting to see the current decadal trends. Our snowfall is going to be there; a +4 is still cold enough to snow in the winter. In fact, a lack of cool/dry air masses likely increase cold season precip… but the retention is a metric that takes a hit by a higher mean temperature. The higher elevations will be less prone to this change, the elevations that are still spending the longest time below 0C throughout the season. -13C or -3C… it’s below freezing. Down low it can be tougher to sustain a deep pack. Yeah I had that in mind before I read your comment about snow. You could make an argument that upslope snow might increase as we warm, but as you said retention may take a hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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