Quick 2024-25 Winter Outlook (maybe not AS bad as my initial thoughts)

[Terpeast]

Not gonna go as in depth as last year because I'm in the middle of a job search. Gotta stay focused on applying and interviewing. 

But wanted to share my thoughts about what might be in store for winter. Not gonna wait for further data since that might be delayed due to Helene and now possibly Milton.

Based on the PDO, ENSO, QBO/solar, I came up with analogs going back only to the year 2000 (including Dec 1999):

• 1999-00
• 2008-09
• 2010-11
• 2017-18
• 2021-22
• 2022-23

Those are all nina winters with negative PDO, and the 500mb map shows as such, which not surprisingly matches up with the base state aleutian ridge. But it also matches up with the latest CFS and other seasonals, with hints of poleward ridging into Alaska and a polar vortex down into central Canada. AO somewhat negative, but NAO more neutral.

Temperature and precipitation anomalies:

 

Doesn't seem like the blazing warmth that I expected not too long ago, but I would probably adjust the whole map up by a couple degrees F. 

So overall, we may see a +2 to +3 DJF this year, with somewhat below normal precipitation. IOW, it'll be mild overall like the past 7-8 winters, but I'm banking on at least 2 severe cold outbreaks in the east either preceded or succeeded by large storms. We may actually barely touch zero/subzero F temperatures this time around, especially west of I-95 towards the hills/mtns.

The snowfall average at KIAD from these analogs comes out to 10". But 1999-00 was the best of the bunch, with 24". If we take that out, the average goes down to 8".

I think the best case scenario this winter is something like 2021-22 plus a storm that takes us by surprise. Worst case is another 2022-23. 

My probabilistic snowfall outlook is thus as follows:

• 0 to 10 inches: 60%
• 10 to 20 inches: 30%
• 20 to 40 inches: 10%
• 40 inches or more: 0%

Biggest thing is we don't know whether the tier with the highest probability will be closer to a shutout or closer to 10". I cannot predict that months ahead of time. That's beyond me. A lot will come down to luck and timing.