nj2va Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 20 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: It’s weakening. I hope this things fall apart. Not sure why this forum gets a hard on for catastrophic destruction. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshb32689 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Are we approaching the skull phase of the storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sielicki Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: I hope this things fall apart. Not sure why this forum gets a hard on for catastrophic destruction. This is why winter weather is better, never any real guilt in rooting for very cold weather or big snow storms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: I hope this things fall apart. Not sure why this forum gets a hard on for catastrophic destruction. I’m not the one who thought it was a good idea to build homes in a hurricane prone area. You can’t fix stupid I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 How come everyone keeps talking about Tampa bay when the models are trending south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 44 minutes ago, goctican said: Adding, we're in a none evac, none flood zone in Pinellas. We've been pretty resolute on staying although we've had "the conversation" several times as the situation has developed. We had planned on leaving if it didn't de-intensify by tomorrow morning. But now, we're figuring we will stay because it is a royal pain to evac. We're very well prepared, but I'm still questioning my decision. We have kids too. I wish I could put more faith in govt officials and experts but... well, there it is. Point is you can go back and forth, trying not to listen to others who are panicking and going with whatever emotions flow with their group atm. And you also try to ignore the people who are staying in places like Evac A. It's a bitch. Forgive me if I'm venting a bit. Don't want to do it with the fam. Honestly, if you have kids and expect a potential 10' storm surge, you should get out. Life is too precious to be stubborn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, etudiant said: Honestly, if you have kids and expect a potential 10' storm surge, you should get out. Life is too precious to be stubborn. I'm 45ft above sea level and 5 minutes from the highest point in the county at 100ft. There are 2 more evac zones below me, and I'm not even in one to begin with. Thanks though for piling onto all the BS comments I've gotten today on both sides. "You're going to die!" "It's nothingburger." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, goctican said: I'm 45ft above sea level and 5 minutes from the highest point in the county at 100ft. There are 2 more evac zones below me, and I'm not even in one to begin with. Thanks though for piling onto all the BS comments I've gotten today on both sides. "You're going to die!" "It's nothingburger." Well, you're probably reasonable well placed to avoid any storm surge, certainly better than I'd thought. I've no idea what the aftermath of a Florida hurricane is like, do people get together to pick up the pieces or is it 'Lord of Flies'? Certainly a learning experience for the kids. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 A viewer here in NJ texted me a photo of her second home on Longboat Key today. She was worried what would become of it bc they shut the gas and electric off at noon today so she lost her live feed. It resembled one of the cottages on Barnegat Bay Island that was swept away during the S storm we dare mention in Brick Twp back in 2012. No stilts, nothing. I told her it's gonna be gone. I was just down there in February and the amount of development miles inland is mind boggling. We're watching probably the first or second costliest us hurricane ever and it's all just a wait and see. The photos below show the location. It's smack dab in the middle of Longboat. They all lost the protective dunes during Helene. It's sickening what's about to unfold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Disney world didn't shut down. Irresponsible. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 6 minutes ago, etudiant said: Well, you're probably reasonable well placed to avoid any storm surge, certainly better than I'd thought. I've no idea what the aftermath of a Florida hurricane is like, do people get together to pick up the pieces or is it 'Lord of Flies'? Certainly a learning experience for the kids. I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic but...a little of both? The community comes together like you wouldn't believe. Remember, many of us experience this our whole lives. I spent last week after Helene helping many families I didn't know to gut or repair their homes. I initially planned on doing it more this week. Putting together volunteer teams to do this can be very rewarding and teach you a lot about who you are. Our kids know firsthand what it means to give back on a local level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 14 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Disney world didn't shut down. Irresponsible. They’re closing tomorrow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 21 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Disney world didn't shut down. Irresponsible. Nothing ever happens to Disney World anyway. I swear they have a HAARP Machine underneath the Magic Kingdom to reroute/destroy any tropical systems approaching. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 6 hours ago, burgertime said: Checking in on the threads and it's good to see hardcore weenie action is still alive and well. Hope everyone impacted by this storm stays safe! Especially here in the Milton Special Ed thread 6 1 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 25 minutes ago, jburns said: Especially here in the Milton Special Ed thread Everyone knows this is where the real storm thread exists 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, Big Jims Videos said: A viewer here in NJ texted me a photo of her second home on Longboat Key today. She was worried what would become of it bc they shut the gas and electric off at noon today so she lost her live feed. It resembled one of the cottages on Barnegat Bay Island that was swept away during the S storm we dare mention in Brick Twp back in 2012. No stilts, nothing. I told her it's gonna be gone. I was just down there in February and the amount of development miles inland is mind boggling. We're watching probably the first or second costliest us hurricane ever and it's all just a wait and see. The photos below show the location. It's smack dab in the middle of Longboat. They all lost the protective dunes during Helene. It's sickening what's about to unfold. A huge section of the "major impact" area looks like that. Milton will end up being known as the condo inundator. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 hours ago, Normandy said: Tornado / waterspout outbreak occurring offshore west coast of florida Beginning of the tornadic part of Milton Mesoscale Discussion 2133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Areas affected...southwestern coastal Florida and the lower Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090023Z - 090530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development posing risk for waterspouts/tornadoes is possible offshore of southwestern Florida coastal areas and north of the lower Keys much of tonight. It appears that this may not spread into coastal areas and inland until closer to or beyond daybreak. However, trends are being closely monitored. DISCUSSION...A weak/diffuse surface frontal zone in advance of Hurricane Milton has been a focus for persistent discrete rotating storms the past several hours, roughly 50-150+ miles north-northwest through west of the Key West vicinity. This activity has likely been supported by forcing for ascent associated with weak low-level warm advection and moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear. Low-level hodographs are likely rather modest to weak, but clockwise curved, and in the presence of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content this probably has been sufficient to support low-level mesocyclones occasionally producing waterspouts. Through late evening and into the overnight hours, as Milton slowly accelerates northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the developing warm frontal zone probably will begin to surge northward to its immediate north and northeast. However, closer to southwestern Florida Peninsula coastal areas, the Rapid Refresh suggests that the boundary may remain quasi-stationary into early portions of the overnight hours, and may not begin approaching the Naples/Fort Myers vicinities until 09-12Z. Even at that time, low-level hodographs may only just be in the process of modest enlargement, as flow around 850 mb becomes southeasterly and begins to increase in excess of 30 kt. And, based on forecast soundings, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization may not develop inland of coastal areas until after daybreak. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 10/09/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 lol.. This hits too close to home. 2 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: lol.. This hits too close to home. Sorry gotta binge watch another 12-18hrs of Goes-16 porn. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 ~14 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just a feeling of gut wrenching dread and absolute lack of control this morning. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sielicki Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Is it fair to say at this point that this storm has exhibited unique or abnormal behavior with respect to eyewall replacement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 38 minutes ago, sielicki said: Is it fair to say at this point that this storm has exhibited unique or abnormal behavior with respect to eyewall replacement? I don’t think so. It seems pretty standard to me so far. It is a little surprising that the first one didn’t create a much bigger eye, but going from 4nm wide to 10nm wide is still more than double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 7 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Nothing ever happens to Disney World anyway. I swear they have a HAARP Machine underneath the Magic Kingdom to reroute/destroy any tropical systems approaching. So THAT'S how the Government controls the hurricanes.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selketine Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 8 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Nothing ever happens to Disney World anyway. My son is a cast member at WDW so let's hope so. They're shutting down at 2pm today. He is college age and moved to FL just over a year ago and lives in an apartment in Polk county. I read that t-mobile customers will be able to access Starlink in areas hit by Milton. Does anyone have some instructions for how they can do that? I wanted to send it to him and some others I know who live near Orlando and near Tampa in case it will work for them. I googled it and it said you have to go to a website and signup - just wondering how they'd do that if they didn't have internet or phone service to begin with. I figured it would be changing some setting on your phone instead to look for satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I Am fine with people putting their amateur forecasts in the thread, but I have to say that people then constantly trying to self congratulate or almost wishcast their forecasts into existence gets very old. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Been running pretty consistently here over the past few hours. Mostly light. Sounds from the main thread that the dry air is kicking in causing it to weaken although I’m not sold it’s just not beginning another EWRC but I’m a weenie compared to the Mets so I’ll take their word. Also not sold it’s 100% going south but that seems to be what most are saying. I’m still expecting some pretty strong conditions over the next 24 hours especially from 8 pm-4 am here but if it misses us I’m ok with that too. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 extrapolating the recent radar movement would bring it just up the north side of the bay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 extrapolating the recent radar movement would bring it just up the north side of the bayMost consensus seems to think this turns east well before Tampa now. This line doesn’t seem likely at all. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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