Normandy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tornado / waterspout outbreak occurring offshore west coast of florida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, etudiant said: Trouble is that for most people, their home is all they have. Leaving it vacant and at the mercy of the elements and of passers by is a huge step. Imho, people would be more willing to evacuate if they had some assurance that the authorities had their back, that their property would be watched, so at least it would not be looted by the time they were allowed to return. That’s asking a lot from local Leo during a natural disaster. They are spread pretty thin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, frazdaddy said: That’s asking a lot from local Leo during a natural disaster. They are spread pretty thin. Exactly! People know this and consequently prefer to risk their lives by riding out the storm, just to avoid losing all their possessions to criminals and vandals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwick WX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 57 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Buddy is at 14’ elevation a few blocks off of the Peace River. Guessing he needs to GTFO? To put it on a bumper sticker, Peace River = Peace Out. You can also let him know if the surge doesn't get him, the river length of 106 miles and drainage basin of 1,367 sq. mi. per wiki will carry a crap-ton of rainfall/runoff at a great enough depth to threaten flooding from the inland side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 My in-laws at this red dot location in Charlotte Harbor have dug their heels in will not be leaving. The have a false sense of security because the slight elevation of their side of the street has kept them dry in 5-6" surges. At 7, the water is at their door. My last plea to move was met with this: "Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us because a lot less surge if that happens" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Having a bit of trouble understanding the wind forecast for the i75 area of Port Charlotte assuming the landfall stays north of Siesta. We aren’t in a surge prone zone, over 25 feet above sea level. Seems like 10m wind maps don’t have much in this area but not sure if those accurately depict things. Any insight is appreciated and apologies for the IMBYness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 hours ago, understudyhero said: I just checked out St. Armand’s Circle - all the first floor stuff got three feet of waves last hurricane. These are places I have been going to for two decades and I doubt they open again after this storm Probably for the better. Probably shouldn't be there to begin with, as terrible as that sounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This storm is boring. Like do something already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Helene flooded homes but left the structures mostly intact in many coastal areas. After what I saw today on the roads in St Pete ( and despite our Governor celebrating a few hundred dump trips.) there is so much debris still piled everywhere that even a cat 2 wind will send deadly and destructive items flying everywhere. If this storm stays on steroids, there won’t be an uncovered window left intact after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 18 minutes ago, etudiant said: Exactly! People know this and consequently prefer to risk their lives by riding out the storm, just to avoid losing all their possessions to criminals and vandals. This is why I have minimal things of value lol. If I was anywhere near the ocean.....PTFO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, lilj4425 said: This storm is boring. Like do something already. Hurricane Milton has requested that I ban you for life. Request under consideration. 2 3 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 What is so valuable in a home you can't leave behind? A TV? An old china set in a hutch from Grandma? Take the valuable jewelry, photo books, and important docs and leave. Maybe the chain saw and gas cans so you can clear your way back in after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: What is so valuable in a home you can't leave behind? A TV? An old china set in a hutch from Grandma? Take the valuable jewelry, photo books, and important docs and leave. Maybe the chain saw and gas cans so you can clear your way back in after. Yeah I don't get it. It'll all be flooded even if you stay so what's there to protect? I think some just don't think it's going to happen... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah I don't get it. It'll all be flooded even if you stay so what's there to protect? I think some just don't think it's going to happen... This. Lots of “it won’t happen to me” to “I’ll roll the dice because im broke and can’t afford to leave” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Speaking as someone with a relative that won't evacuate - it's purely mental. When danger comes - people want security, and for many older people security means one and only one thing - home. It's not about losing possessions - it's about being home in a time of crisis - even if home is the most *dangerous* place to be. The logic cannot be reasoned with - but there it is. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 29 minutes ago, hooralph said: My in-laws at this red dot location in Charlotte Harbor have dug their heels in will not be leaving. The have a false sense of security because the slight elevation of their side of the street has kept them dry in 5-6" surges. At 7, the water is at their door. My last plea to move was met with this: "Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us because a lot less surge if that happens" Sad. And if they get this wrong and it’s 10+ feet, they won’t have time or the means to leave since emergency crews likely won’t be able to get to them. With the storm coming in perpendicular the water will also likely be rising very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said: Speaking as someone with a relative that won't evacuate - it's purely mental. When danger comes - people want security, and for many older people security means one and only one thing - home. It's not about losing possessions - it's about being home in a time of crisis - even if home is the most *dangerous* place to be. The logic cannot be reasoned with - but there it is. There’s just a basic mental tendency to want to remain in your supposed safe place-home whenever something is threatening. It’s the opposite of what you should do in this situation but people associate it with safety. People also associated toilet paper with safety during Covid, it’s totally irrational but it’s undeniable. Many people also don’t trust authority figures or the government due to misinformation these days, but I’ll avoid diving further into that rabbit hole. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Gov. DeSantis warns Milton looters could meet shooters in ‘Second Amendment state’ https://floridapolitics.com/archives/700379-2nd-amendment-state-looters/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Sad. And if they get this wrong and it’s 10+ feet, they won’t have time or the means to leave since emergency crews likely won’t be able to get to them. With the storm coming in perpendicular the water will also likely be rising very fast. I mean I hate to bring up the S word since allot of people on the board freak, but we went through this is with Sandy. The whole (well Irene wasn’t bad) so I’m not leaving. I have lots of friends who left for Irene then insisted on staying for sandy and obviously majorly regretted it. And that was only about 8/9’ of surge and cat one winds. 10+ and major winds are infinitely more life threating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I notice that a couple of important NOAA buoys went offline just now - sometime today. Maybe loss of comms due to the storm? Those two were online earlier. One of them was a good wave-level indicator, so it stinks to not have that data! Anyone know why? It seems like they're far away enough from the storm that they wouldn't be losing comms at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 10 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said: Speaking as someone with a relative that won't evacuate - it's purely mental. When danger comes - people want security, and for many older people security means one and only one thing - home. It's not about losing possessions - it's about being home in a time of crisis - even if home is the most *dangerous* place to be. The logic cannot be reasoned with - but there it is. Adding, we're in a none evac, none flood zone in Pinellas. We've been pretty resolute on staying although we've had "the conversation" several times as the situation has developed. We had planned on leaving if it didn't de-intensify by tomorrow morning. But now, we're figuring we will stay because it is a royal pain to evac. We're very well prepared, but I'm still questioning my decision. We have kids too. I wish I could put more faith in govt officials and experts but... well, there it is. Point is you can go back and forth, trying not to listen to others who are panicking and going with whatever emotions flow with their group atm. And you also try to ignore the people who are staying in places like Evac A. It's a bitch. Forgive me if I'm venting a bit. Don't want to do it with the fam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Anyone care to guess at what shape Milton will be in when he gets to the East Coast of Florida, what do you think the strength will be and also any guesstimate as to what part of the East coast he exits at ? MIL is in Boynton Beach but they live inland thankfully and the storm as of now appears at least to me to exit NORTH of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillsweather Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This is such a tiny storm its shrinking again and probably going to do another eye replacement.. The eye got bigger last time with it but the storm itself didnt grow at all and now with its shrinking again it just feels weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 It’s weakening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I mean I hate to bring up the S word since allot of people on the board freak, but we went through this is with Sandy. The whole (well Irene wasn’t bad) so I’m not leaving. I have lots of friends who left for Irene then insisted on staying for sandy and obviously majorly regretted it. And that was only about 8/9’ of surge and cat one winds. 10+ and major winds are infinitely more life threating As someone who lived in Long Beach for it and lost almost everything, I can relate. The super high tide from the full moon made it worse along with the timing, so the water level was about 2’ higher along with the 8’ surge making for a 10’ storm tide. My house at the time is about equal to hooralph’s in laws elevation and there was about 3’ of water in the house. It’s an absolute miracle no one in Long Beach died knowing how many refused to evacuate. So yeah, this one will be much more serious for the wrong people who refuse to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Weakening like Tom Brady after 40? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 15 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Anyone care to guess at what shape Milton will be in when he gets to the East Coast of Florida, what do you think the strength will be and also any guesstimate as to what part of the East coast he exits at ? MIL is in Boynton Beach but they live inland thankfully and the storm as of now appears at least to me to exit NORTH of them That far south is probably fine for major impacts but an unlikely outer band or two could mean impacts enough to knock out power maybe. There are also the issues with tornado risk east of the path. It probably exits around Cape Canaveral area, maybe Melbourne/Sebastian if it trends south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I just did a closely zoomed, satellite image tour, from TB to Naples and the amount of development on or near the coast is mind boggling. Bumper to bumper development, on the ocean, with neighborhoods interwoven with rivers and canals. This is going to be an expensive storm. I hope people took the evacuation zones seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I just did a closely zoomed, satellite image tour, from TB to Naples and the amount of development on or near the coast is mind boggling. Bumper to bumper development, on the ocean, with neighborhoods interwoven with rivers and canals. This is going to be an expensive storm. I hope people took the evacuation zones seriously. I wondered this before but for the people hit really hard for this, how many will just decide to leave and not rebuild. There’ll probably be others that move in right behind them but they’ll find it impossible to get insurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 19 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: It’s weakening. Saw others saying that the lighting around the eye mat suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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