Hurricane Milton Banter

[Chambana]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

But the shear is going to weaken it.

The surge is there, regardless.

[Normandy]

13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Absolutely watching history right now. Cannot be stressed enough how serious the surge threat is for Florida. This second sub 900 intensification is the absolute last thing Florida needed. Katrina is the only other storm that’s in this ballpark, and somewhat similar in that, the surge will not match the landfall intensity. Scary stuff 

Bruh seeing it slide east every time it rapidly deepens is spooky as fuck.  Very unnatural for a cane where it is

[Nibor]

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Absolutely watching history right now. Cannot be stressed enough how serious the surge threat is for Florida. This second sub 900 intensification is the absolute last thing Florida needed. Katrina is the only other storm that’s in this ballpark, and somewhat similar in that, the surge will not match the landfall intensity. Scary stuff 

I might be wrong but Katrina was a pretty large storm when it was cat 5. Milton is still small, relatively. Has time to gain size. 

[skillsweather]

my knee was hurting this morning and normally it dont hurt until after lunch so I knew that feeling usually isn't good then when i checked that this storm is a monster again I was like dang it my knee told me. always go with your gutt feeling. my gut basically told me everything that would happen up to this point it was like 897mb im like no way and we got it then it was like it will rise to 920ish and then go back im like ok now i know its not happening.. But yet again just goes to show you how good our instincts are.. I have always been good at predicting these things its kind of funny but most never believe me

[KPITSnow]

When is the last time a major storm landfalled between say port charlotte  and Tampa? I think it’s been a long time, and everyone focusing on Tampa is really discounting, IMO, that a landfall in say Venice would be extremely devastating as well. 

[esullivan]

In main thread someone said Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ -forecast to go to 70.  For non pros - what do these numbers mean in terms or surge?

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, esullivan said:

In main thread someone said Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ -forecast to go to 70.  For non pros - what do these numbers mean in terms or surge?

It's essentially a measure of the hurricane's overall power which is a factor of both its wind speed/central pressure and overall size. So its IKE can still go up as the minimum central pressure does. The surge is influenced by both factors size and wind speed/min central pressure as well, so even if Milton weakens in terms of wind/pressure but expands in size, the IKE can go up and the surge may be worse since more water is being moved overall. If it gets funneled into a bay or inlets it's made even worse.

[CheeselandSkies]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's essentially a measure of the hurricane's overall power which is a factor of both its wind speed/central pressure and overall size. So its IKE can still go up as the minimum central pressure does. The surge is influenced by both factors size and wind speed/min central pressure as well, so even if Milton weakens in terms of wind/pressure but expands in size, the IKE can go up and the surge may be worse since more water is being moved overall. If it gets funneled into a bay or inlets it's made even worse.

The way I think of it for example, is...

Hurricane Ike was so bad because it had tremendous IKE.

[SethToast]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's essentially a measure of the hurricane's overall power which is a factor of both its wind speed/central pressure and overall size. So its IKE can still go up as the minimum central pressure does. The surge is influenced by both factors size and wind speed/min central pressure as well, so even if Milton weakens in terms of wind/pressure but expands in size, the IKE can go up and the surge may be worse since more water is being moved overall. If it gets funneled into a bay or inlets it's made even worse.

Is TJ cumulative or is TJ's per hour or other unit of time? The wikipedia entry says that Hiroshima released 63 TJ. I was under the impression that hurricanes released several orders of magnitudes more energy than nuclear weapons

[Random Chaos]

1 minute ago, esullivan said:

In main thread someone said Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ -forecast to go to 70.  For non pros - what do these numbers mean in terms or surge?

Not really associated with surge directly. IKE takes the total wind field to determine the total kinetic energy of the storm. For example Hurricane Sandy had one of the highest IKE values of over 300TJ shortly before landfall. The larger the wind field the lower the relative pressure and the lower the pressure generally the more storm surge (but don’t forget inlets and bays are also impacted by wind-driven surge). Since a huge tropical storm could have an IKE similar to a tiny Cat 5 storm but the wind driven aspect of the surge would be vastly different (even though the pressure based surge would be similar).

[The Iceman]

10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

When is the last time a major storm landfalled between say port charlotte  and Tampa? I think it’s been a long time, and everyone focusing on Tampa is really discounting, IMO, that a landfall in say Venice would be extremely devastating as well. 

One of my good friends has a condo in Indian rocks beach and every time I go down there, I think to myself how screwed that area is if a major hurricane ever landfalls there. Lots of homes and businesses without pilings and I’m pretty sure Helene washed out all of the dunes. That area will be unrecognizable if it landfalls in say Clearwater.

[esullivan]

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The way I think of it for example, is...

Hurricane Ike was so bad because it had tremendous IKE.

I did try to google it and only came up with hurricane Ike

[KPITSnow]

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

One of my good friends has a condo in Indian rocks beach and every time I go down there, I think to myself how screwed that area is if a major hurricane ever landfalls there. Lots of homes and businesses without pilings and I’m pretty sure Helene washed out all of the dunes. That area will be unrecognizable if it landfalls in say Clearwater.

I’ve been to Sarasota/siesta key. Id think siesta key would be absolute toast if it goes between there and Tampa. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, esullivan said:

I did try to google it and only came up with hurricane Ike

Integrated Kinetic Energy. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I’ve been to Sarasota/siesta key. Id think siesta key would be absolute toast if it goes between there and Tampa. 

Any place less than 10 feet above sea level and maybe even higher will be absolutely devastated south of the path of the eye in the max surge zone. It’s impacting at a perpendicular angle to the coast which also makes the surge worse. There will probably be new islands altogether since some will have new inlets. Also the surge height is WITHOUT waves on top. It’s the water height above the normal water height. 

[understudyhero]

I just checked out St. Armand’s Circle - all the first floor stuff got three feet of waves last hurricane.

These are places I have been going to for two decades and I doubt they open again after this storm

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

When is the last time a major storm landfalled between say port charlotte  and Tampa? I think it’s been a long time, and everyone focusing on Tampa is really discounting, IMO, that a landfall in say Venice would be extremely devastating as well. 

 Since 1851, that area between Pt Charlotte and Tampa has had plenty of hurricane activity from storms moving N just offshore causing significant storm surge (1935, Easy (1950), Alma (1966)), coming nearby from overland with gusts up to 120 (Donna, 1926), or landfalling below cat 3 (1944 hit right at Sarasota but as high end 2 (105). Then there’s 1921 that was a MH (120) that passed by just to the N at Tarpon Springs and gave Sarasota 105. But there’s technically no MH landfall I could find right there since at least 1851.

[dbullsfan]

the eye getting smaller again is that good for inland and places not directly next to land fall but maybe 15-20 miles north? I'm thinking with landfall looking like its going further south the biggest impact here is going to be wind/rain but hopefully the smaller eye will help mitigate the wind impacts

 

[NeffsvilleWx]

The Space Coast seems to be taking this much more seriously than they did Ian.

Come to think of it, haven't heard much "muh hurr-i-can party WOOOOOOOOO" at all for this one.

[wdrag]

fwiw...noticing much of the w coast of FL,  NOS Tide gauges running nearly a foot above predicted,  already. 

[jburns]

1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

The Space Coast seems to be taking this much more seriously than they did Ian.

Come to think of it, haven't heard much "muh hurr-i-can party WOOOOOOOOO" at all for this one.

 

'If you choose to stay you are going to die'...

[frazdaddy]

5 minutes ago, jburns said:

 

'If you choose to stay you are going to die'...

Her whole statement was very clear and concise.

[hazwoper]

Anyone have a good mapper program that shows storm surge forecasts?  Friend of mine from HS is in Ounta Gouda and I am trying to convince he to GTFO.  Could use some visuals to help.

[frazdaddy]

7 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Anyone have a good mapper program that shows storm surge forecasts?  Friend of mine from HS is in Ounta Gouda and I am trying to convince he to GTFO.  Could use some visuals to help.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c

[hazwoper]

Buddy is at 14’ elevation a few blocks off of the Peace River.  Guessing he needs to GTFO?

[etudiant]

There was a very good illustration map of the Sarasota area in a post yesterday, which allowed one to see the streets progressively inundated as the surge went from nothing to 10 feet.

I know zip about Florida, so no idea whether your friend's location is covered. In any case, maps and good models exist.

Good luck!! 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Buddy is at 14’ elevation a few blocks off of the Peace River.  Guessing he needs to GTFO?

If he’s being told to get out he really should get out. 

[Ace Mahomes]

I feel like I’ve already become desensitized to how crazy what we’re watching truly is. Like they just updated it to 902 mb and I didn’t bat an eye. It could be years before we see another cane like this and I gotta remind myself to enjoy this meteorological beauty. 

[etudiant]

42 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If he’s being told to get out he really should get out. 

Trouble is that for most people, their home is all they have.

Leaving it vacant and at the mercy of the elements and of passers by is a huge step.

Imho, people would be more willing to evacuate if they had some assurance that the authorities had their back, that their property would be watched, so at least it would not be looted by the time they were allowed to return.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, Ace Mahomes said:

I feel like I’ve already become desensitized to how crazy what we’re watching truly is. Like they just updated it to 902 mb and I didn’t bat an eye. It could be years before we see another cane like this and I gotta remind myself to enjoy this meteorological beauty. 

 Fortunately for memory purposes we have the very recent Helene clearly reminding us that a 938 mb H is easily low enough to be an extremely destructive monster. Really could even include through 950s easily. A 902 is just too strong to even comprehend.