Retrobuc Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 15 hours ago, dbullsfan said: Not sure if its been mentioned yet but I'm a little worried that with the easy access to the coastline up and down the Tampa Bay area that this storm is going to bring out a lot of amateur storm chasers that don't have the proper training, knowledge or equipment to handle this kind of storm. The definition of Darwinism... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Obviously too early but I'd be breathing a sign of relief in Tampa this am based on weakening and track trends. Even if they catch the eye wall, a broad eye of a Cat 2/3 struggling w/ dry air/structure isn't going to produce a devastating surge w/ a mostly offshore flow. Surge will be more wind than pressure driven; could see Siesta Key and areas south hitting the max potential though of 10-15 feet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 You have to also remove the debris in 24 hours from Helene so it doesn’t become missiles as well as batten down for this one. Can’t even imagine all that has to go into getting ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 16 minutes ago, Pityflakes said: Obviously too early but I'd be breathing a sign of relief in Tampa this am based on weakening and track trends. Even if they catch the eye wall, a broad eye of a Cat 2/3 struggling w/ dry air/structure isn't going to produce a devastating surge w/ a mostly offshore flow. Surge will be more wind than pressure driven; could see Siesta Key and areas south hitting the max potential though of 10-15 feet. The surge doesn’t diminish as fast as the winds do. See LA/MS from Katrina. It kept its huge surge even though it degraded significantly into a halfacane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Turning into a nothingburger except the barrier islands 1 2 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 It’s just gonna be a few light rain showers when it makes land fall. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: Turning into a nothingburger except the barrier islands Before I go full on sarcasm, care to explain why you feel this way? I’m pretty sure a sting jet with gusts over 100mph well inland is a pretty big deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Before I go full on sarcasm, care to explain why you feel this way? I’m pretty sure a sting jet with gusts over 100mph well inland is a pretty big deal. She's hurting, everyone saying weakening badly, and south of TBA. Makes it meh. People already saying CAT1 landfall in main thread. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: She's hurting, everyone saying weakening badly, and south of TBA. Makes it meh. People already saying CAT1 landfall in main thread. Who’s “everyone” saying “weakening badly” and who’s definitely saying it makes landfall S of Tampa, an area still populated with hundreds of thousands of people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Who’s “everyone” saying “weakening badly” and who’s definitely saying it makes landfall S of Tampa, an area still populated with hundreds of thousands of people? Everyone posting in the main thread. Yeah I mean it'll still be bad, but that's like saying a 3' snow storm is as bad for Albany as it is for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 It’s headed for Cuba. Storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: Everyone posting in the main thread. Yeah I mean it'll still be bad, but that's like saying a 3' snow storm is as bad for Albany as it is for NYC. I see posts mentioning the presentation is getting better again and it’s borderline Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, jm1220 said: I see posts mentioning the presentation is getting better again and it’s borderline Cat 5. Don’t come in here making sense. This is the thread for tinfoil hat people. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Don’t come in here making sense. This is the thread for tinfoil hat people. That’s the problem I’m wearing my cheese hat today, fresh cheddar. What site are people using for current satellite images? NHC is prettt much frozen…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I don't see anyone in the main thread saying it is going to be a cat 1. That also doesn't match any of the guidance from the National Hurricane Center. Their 11 am guidance has it at about 125 mph at landfall - a strong cat 3. Also, most of the hi res hurricane models had the storm hitting around Clearwater or north. The farthest south models appear to be maybe around Sarasota. Even if it does weaken, if it stays at or near cat 5 for the next 24 hours the amount of surge that will build up is going to be devastating wherever that comes ashore. That doesn't wind down quickly. Here are 2 important comments from the 11 am discussion Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 27 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I guess the government cancelled this one. Lol nah I'm not like that. I'm just commenting on the general theme in the main thread. But ya now we're back to big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, RamblinRed said: I don't see anyone in the main thread saying it is going to be a cat 1. That also doesn't match any of the guidance from the National Hurricane Center. Their 11 am guidance has it at about 125 mph at landfall - a strong cat 3. Also, most of the hi res hurricane models had the storm hitting around Clearwater or north. The farthest south models appear to be maybe around Sarasota. Even if it does weaken, if it stays at or near cat 5 for the next 24 hours the amount of surge that will build up is going to be devastating wherever that comes ashore. That doesn't wind down quickly. Here are 2 important comments from the 11 am discussion Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. If you don’t see the posts it’s because the mods are working bruh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 44 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: Turning into a nothingburger except the barrier islands Read more, post less 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 hour ago, Pityflakes said: Obviously too early but I'd be breathing a sign of relief in Tampa this am based on weakening and track trends. Even if they catch the eye wall, a broad eye of a Cat 2/3 struggling w/ dry air/structure isn't going to produce a devastating surge w/ a mostly offshore flow. Surge will be more wind than pressure driven; could see Siesta Key and areas south hitting the max potential though of 10-15 feet. 44 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I see posts mentioning the presentation is getting better again and it’s borderline Cat 5. See above 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Until Charley in 2004, I heard a lot of "we're protected on the West Coast" and "they can't get that strong in the Gulf". Didn't hear it so much after that and the 2005 season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 HAFS-B: tons of weakening near landfall. Maybe cat 2 possible? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 40 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: See above Pityflakes speaks for everyone including the hurricane experts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 16 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: HAFS-B: tons of weakening near landfall. Maybe cat 2 possible? I knew it. Nothing but a few light showers. Storm cancel. Turn off the lights people. Nothing to see here anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 hours ago, NoCORH4L said: Everyone posting in the main thread. Yeah I mean it'll still be bad, but that's like saying a 3' snow storm is as bad for Albany as it is for NYC. Are you in Florida? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Some fitting lyrics here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Checking in on the threads and it's good to see hardcore weenie action is still alive and well. Hope everyone impacted by this storm stays safe! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Truck tire rolling down the gulf. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 On pins and needles waiting for recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Absolutely watching history right now. Cannot be stressed enough how serious the surge threat is for Florida. This second sub 900 intensification is the absolute last thing Florida needed. Katrina is the only other storm that’s in this ballpark, and somewhat similar in that, the surge will not match the landfall intensity. Scary stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 But the shear is going to weaken it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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