Hurricane Milton Banter

[SnoSki14]

Turns out I was right that if Milton made landfall south of TB as a weakening hurricane, FL would do just fine...and they are. 

Maybe stop making everything a worst case scenario because 99% of the time it's not that. 

[DDweatherman]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Turns out I was right that if Milton made landfall south of TB as a weakening hurricane, FL would do just fine...and they are. 

Maybe stop making everything a worst case scenario because 99% of the time it's not that. 

While I hear what you're saying, maybe you should ask the people affected how they feel about that statement. Of course the worst case doesn't happen in many cases, but we are in a world where it's better to be safe than sorry, especially when you're talking double digit storm surges in one of the most surge susceptible metro areas in our country. That same area is one of the quicker growing regions in the US as a whole. 

[gallopinggertie]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Turns out I was right that if Milton made landfall south of TB as a weakening hurricane, FL would do just fine...and they are. 

Maybe stop making everything a worst case scenario because 99% of the time it's not that. 

I’d suggest having more nuance, Milton wasn’t the worst case scenario but plenty of communities in florida aren’t “just fine” right now either.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, gallopinggertie said:

I’d suggest having more nuance, Milton wasn’t the worst case scenario but plenty of communities in florida aren’t “just fine” right now either.

I meant the state as whole will fare okay. Sure local hard hit communities will face issues but this won't be the disaster the media said it'd be. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Turns out I was right that if Milton made landfall south of TB as a weakening hurricane, FL would do just fine...and they are. 

Maybe stop making everything a worst case scenario because 99% of the time it's not that. 

In Port St Lucie, Fort Pierce, Wellington, Punta Gorda, Siesta Key etc people should just relax because “FL did just fine”? What a load off their shoulders! 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, gallopinggertie said:

I’d suggest having more nuance, Milton wasn’t the worst case scenario but plenty of communities in florida aren’t “just fine” right now either.

There was absolutely 100% a need to prepare for the worst case scenario because a tiny change in track would’ve brought the eye into or N of Tampa Bay, and predicting the wind speeds is hard to say the least. It hit Cat 5 twice. It wasn’t overhyping or sensationalizing at all to say it could’ve been a worst case scenario. And the places it did hit directly are still heavily populated. Tampa/St Pete also had widespread flooding and wind/power damage. St Pete had its heaviest rain in an event ever. 

[EWR757]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There was absolutely 100% a need to prepare for the worst case scenario because a tiny change in track would’ve brought the eye into or N of Tampa Bay, and predicting the wind speeds is hard to say the least. It hit Cat 5 twice. It wasn’t overhyping or sensationalizing at all to say it could’ve been a worst case scenario. And the places it did hit directly are still heavily populated. Tampa/St Pete also had widespread flooding and wind/power damage. St Pete had its heaviest rain in an event ever. 

I strongly disagree.   There are risks and consequences associated with "preparing".   

Many educated people I know did not understand this storm would begin to dissipate before it made landfall.  Many people prepared for a CAT 5 and that was NEVER in the forecast.   

 

Sometimes reacting causes more problems than sitting quietly. 

[NeonPeon]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I meant the state as whole will fare okay. Sure local hard hit communities will face issues but this won't be the disaster the media said it'd be. 

You've started strawmanning "FLORIDA WILL BE WIPED OFF THE FACE OF THE MAP, THIS IS THE END TIMES" and now are in the position of waving away significant destruction, even as it's being uncovered.

Stop responding to stupid media by having diametrically opposed equally stupid opinions. Stop characterizing the most extreme opinion as definitive. That is why public discourse is broken.

Try ignoring the sensationalism, listening to the calm, intelligent voices, then you can have an adult conversation. Or, carry on, I guess. 

 

[NeonPeon]

20 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

I strongly disagree.   There are risks and consequences associated with "preparing".   

Many educated people I know did not understand this storm would begin to dissipate before it made landfall.  Many people prepared for a CAT 5 and that was NEVER in the forecast.   

 

Sometimes reacting causes more problems than sitting quietly. 

The educated people you know can't read a weather forecast then.

Preparing for the worst here meant a very normal track deviation of just a few miles in either direction causing the worst of a storm surge to go into one of two bays, it had nothing to do with the storm being stronger than forecast. 

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

I strongly disagree.   There are risks and consequences associated with "preparing".   

Many educated people I know did not understand this storm would begin to dissipate before it made landfall.  Many people prepared for a CAT 5 and that was NEVER in the forecast.   

 

Sometimes reacting causes more problems than sitting quietly. 

There was no possibility that the predictions for weakening before landfall would be wrong and instead it would’ve come in as a strong Cat 4 let’s say? It was a definite that the storm would weaken? And 120mph Cat 3 storms aren’t dangerous? Or there wouldn’t be a SLIGHT deviation in the track to bring it NW of Tampa instead? All this was just known days ahead of time and I guess there was no need for people around Tampa to prepare or evacuate. It’s such an inconvenience after all right? 

I’m just glad some here don’t work in emergency preparedness. 

[jm1220]

There was clearly no need for people on Treasure Island let’s say to prepare for the worst and evacuate. They should’ve just stayed home. We’ve never seen situations in the past where the official track could be off by 30 miles or the intensity forecast is off for any of a multitude of reasons. It was obvious 48 hours out that they and Tampa would be fine and the media/emergency officials were overhyping!!! 

[dseagull]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Turns out I was right that if Milton made landfall south of TB as a weakening hurricane, FL would do just fine...and they are. 

Maybe stop making everything a worst case scenario because 99% of the time it's not that. 

Sensationalism sells, especially on the heels of a highly publicized and terrible disaster just a week earlier. 

 

But "prepare for the worst, hope for the best" is always a good policy to live by.  Or the 7 Ps... "Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance," in that one should never let their guard down, especially regarding weather.  

 

In the end, people are going to do as they wish.  It's still a free country.  As a first responder, I can't emphasize how important it is to remain fluid, but at the same time direct with communication.  That's literally the most important part of emergency planning coordinator.  This only becomes convoluted when politics or sensationlism enter the equation.  

 

The windshield wiper approach simply doesn't work with the public.  Florida did a great job as a whole in terms of communicating with the public. 

[dseagull]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There was clearly no need for people on Treasure Island let’s say to prepare for the worst and evacuate. They should’ve just stayed home. We’ve never seen situations in the past where the official track could be off by 30 miles or the intensity forecast is off for any of a multitude of reasons. It was obvious 48 hours out that they and Tampa would be fine and the media/emergency officials were overhyping!!! 

That's not how risk assessment works in emergency planning.   The costs of making an incorrect call like that (in terms of human life,) are not a gamble any coordinator are going to be willing to take.  

 

These individuals are advised by the experts (who may suggest not ordering an evacuation,) but the meterorlogists do not have the final say.   There's a strict protocol that is adhered to, although it may vary from municipality to municipality or from county to county.  

 

Its easy for us to conclude that it was unnecessary or overhyped.   I won't argue with that.   But... you're only looking at it from a narrow perspective, and that's understandable.  So much more is involved, however. 

[Retrobuc]

52 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

I strongly disagree.   There are risks and consequences associated with "preparing".   

Many educated people I know did not understand this storm would begin to dissipate before it made landfall.  Many people prepared for a CAT 5 and that was NEVER in the forecast.   

 

Sometimes reacting causes more problems than sitting quietly. 

There is a big difference between national media coverage and local media coverage.  The local media did a great job explaining that the storm would begin to lose strength as it neared Florida and that tornadoes would be a problem.  The national coverage I watched explained none of that.  From my perspective, the forecasts from the local Orlando region news media were spot on.  They called the heavy rain band that went through my area, the back end winds and east coast storm surge.  If your perspective is national coverage, you did not get the same level of detail, which is to be expected.

[Retrobuc]

12 minutes ago, dseagull said:

That's not how risk assessment works in emergency planning.   The costs of making an incorrect call like that (in terms of human life,) are not a gamble any coordinator are going to be willing to take.  

 

These individuals are advised by the experts (who may suggest not ordering an evacuation,) but the meterorlogists do not have the final say.   There's a strict protocol that is adhered to, although it may vary from municipality to municipality or from county to county.  

 

Its easy for us to conclude that it was unnecessary or overhyped.   I won't argue with that.   But... you're only looking at it from a narrow perspective, and that's understandable.  So much more is involved, however. 

By the same token, we cant have public officials like the Mayor of Tampa saying things like "if you choose to stay you WILL die".  That's sensationalism that makes people tune out.  What happened to the days of stating facts, giving the best information at the time, explain first responders will not be available for rescues and let people decide their course of action.  Hype and sensationalism have caused much of people's distrust with information.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

There is a big difference between national media coverage and local media coverage.  The local media did a great job explaining that the storm would begin to lose strength as it neared Florida and that tornadoes would be a problem.  The national coverage I watched explained none of that.  From my perspective, the forecasts from the local Orlando region news media were spot on.  They called the heavy rain band that went through my area, the back end winds and east coast storm surge.  If your perspective is national coverage, you did not get the same level of detail, which is to be expected.

It was more likely than not to lose strength, sure. Models highlighted the shear and dry air in the eastern Gulf for a few days. But it was also moving over 85+ degree water, and small changes to the jet interaction, steering, dry air etc could’ve made for a much different outcome. Michael in 2018 wasn’t expected to come in as a Cat 5, if I remember right it was supposed to weaken or be a Cat 2, maybe Cat 3. The center of the cone was south of Tampa for a couple days but a couple of northerly wobbles over 48hrs would’ve brought it into Tampa or north. And you have to warn a major metro like Tampa well ahead of time, we all saw the packed highways and stations out of gas. What natural barriers or dunes there were for protection were also lost in Helene. Sure media especially national oversensationalizes all the time, but I totally understood the need to prepare and evacuate for the areas that did. Much better than Clearwater for example not preparing and the wobbles N plus less shear and less weakening happen and they’re now staring down a borderline Cat 5. That was in the window of possibility, fairly unlikely but could’ve caused a massive number of casualties from lack of preparation. Imagine the outcry then? 

[EWR757]

50 minutes ago, dseagull said:

 

But "prepare for the worst, hope for the best" is always a good policy to live by.  Or the 7 Ps... "Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance," in that one should never let their guard down, especially regarding weather.  

 

Again, I'll disagree.  I work in the aviation business where weather observations and forecasts are legally binding.  They determine how much fuel needs to be on board, what contigency plans and airports must be available (if any), what airplane can land or fly a route, what type of airplane can't, etc.  

If aviation prepared for the worst, always...an airplane would never get off the ground.  Risk = 0% is unattainable.  

The big difference in my opinion, is that the decisions the aviation community makes are based on numerical data, a METAR, a TAF, dimensions of a SIGMET, a winds aloft forecast.  Then there are laws that govern the response after the data is received.  There isn't too much subjectivity.    And aviation is incredibly safe and it gets safer over time.

If the message was as the NHC forecast predicted...this will likely go south of TPA, we are forecasting a CAT 3 but that is on the highest end of the intensity guidance, and the hurricane force winds only extend outward of 30 miles from the center...I think many people would have behaved differently.  What they heard is that a CAT 5 is coming, Tampa will be destroyed and the western coastline of Florida will be redrawn forever.  It simply wasn't scientifically accurate or predicted.

Emergency planning has some politics involved and conflicts of interest, unfortunately.  Treating all citizens as equally capable is a mistake.  A Piper Cub and a Boeing 747 get effected by wind differently.  A 30 year old in a multi-million dollar house has less risk than a disabled elderly person in a multi-wide.  Broad, mandated evacuation orders (similar to what happened during COVID with broad lockdowns, etc.) have destructive economic and social implications.

I know a cancer patient to drove north of Orlando "to safety" and slept his car because there were no hotels.  His cancer treatment in Sarasota has been delayed by at least 3 weeks.  "Hope for the best"...whatever.

More science, less politics and ego.

[Retrobuc]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It was more likely than not to lose strength, sure. Models highlighted the shear and dry air in the eastern Gulf for a few days. But it was also moving over 85+ degree water, and small changes to the jet interaction, steering, dry air etc could’ve made for a much different outcome. Michael in 2018 wasn’t expected to come in as a Cat 5, if I remember right it was supposed to weaken or be a Cat 2, maybe Cat 3. The center of the cone was south of Tampa for a couple days but a couple of northerly wobbles over 48hrs would’ve brought it into Tampa or north. And you have to warn a major metro like Tampa well ahead of time, we all saw the packed highways and stations out of gas. What natural barriers or dunes there were for protection were also lost in Helene. Sure media especially national oversensationalizes all the time, but I totally understood the need to prepare and evacuate for the areas that did. Much better than Clearwater for example not preparing and the wobbles N plus less shear and less weakening happen and they’re now staring down a borderline Cat 5. That was in the window of possibility, fairly unlikely but could’ve caused a massive number of casualties from lack of preparation. Imagine the outcry then? 

The local media was clear that you should evacuate if your zone called for that.  I think the local level of info was right on.  if you lived on a barrier island from Cedar Key to Ft Myers and chose not to leave or take precautions, that's on you, not local officials or lack of information.  

[dseagull]

11 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

Again, I'll disagree.  I work in the aviation business where weather observations and forecasts are legally binding.  They determine how much fuel needs to be on board, what contigency plans and airports must be available (if any), what airplane can land or fly a route, what type of airplane can't, etc.  

If aviation prepared for the worst, always...an airplane would never get off the ground.  Risk = 0% is unattainable.  

The big difference in my opinion, is that the decisions the aviation community makes are based on numerical data, a METAR, a TAF, dimensions of a SIGMET, a winds aloft forecast.  Then there are laws that govern the response after the data is received.  There isn't too much subjectivity.    And aviation is incredibly safe and it gets safer over time.

If the message was as the NHC forecast predicted...this will likely go south of TPA, we are forecasting a CAT 3 but that is on the highest end of the intensity guidance, and the hurricane force winds only extend outward of 30 miles from the center...I think many people would have behaved differently.  What they heard is that a CAT 5 is coming, Tampa will be destroyed and the western coastline of Florida will be redrawn forever.  It simply wasn't scientifically accurate or predicted.

Emergency planning has some politics involved and conflicts of interest, unfortunately.  Treating all citizens as equally capable is a mistake.  A Piper Cub and a Boeing 747 get effected by wind differently.  A 30 year old in a multi-million dollar house has less risk than a disabled elderly person in a multi-wide.  Broad, mandated evacuation orders (similar to what happened during COVID with broad lockdowns, etc.) have destructive economic and social implications.

I know a cancer patient to drove north of Orlando "to safety" and slept his car because there were no hotels.  His cancer treatment in Sarasota has been delayed by at least 3 weeks.  "Hope for the best"...whatever.

More science, less politics and ego.

Fair enough.  I agree with most of that.  Especially the politics and ego. 

[Richie]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Turns out I was right that if Milton made landfall south of TB as a weakening hurricane, FL would do just fine...and they are. 

Maybe stop making everything a worst case scenario because 99% of the time it's not that. 

But for much of its lifecycle, it plausibly could have gone north of TB and didn't have to weaken upon landfall. So what is the point of making calls like that well ahead of when they can't definitively be made?

[NoCORH4L]

It was never going north of TB, let's be serious.

[Retrobuc]

Just now, NoCORH4L said:

It was never going north of TB, let's be serious.

Only folks on this chat board were hyping north of Tampa

[NoCORH4L]

The media kept saying "CAT 5 hurricane headed to Florida", which was true but disingenuous. 

[Richie]

31 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

It was never going north of TB, let's be serious.

It feels like Monday morning quarterbacking to say that that was never a possibility. The storm was designated as an invest on October 4, named on October 5, and landfall was projected to be four days later. Evacuations plans and general preparations needed to be made almost immediately. The rare trajectory of this storm and the favorable conditions for development merited an overly cautious approach because the worst-case scenario was at one time relatively plausible. A metropolitan area as large as Tampa Bay can't afford to wait until there is clear model consensus.

[RamblinRed]

My wife's best friend has a home on Little Gasparilla Island that she shared with her sister. That home is now part of the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing left are the pylons the house was on.

It was the third house from the beach. The two in front of it were destroyed by Helene and then their house was destroyed by Milton. There is still alot of loss from this hurricane and give the NHC credit for doing an incredible job with all its forecasting for this one.

On the main thread they were discussing potential landfall at St. Pete as late as 4 pm that afternoon. It is only then that Milton started to take the hard right turn. If it had taken the turn 1-2 hours later we would have had a much worse story.

[jm1220]

57 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

It was never going north of TB, let's be serious.

N of Tampa wasn’t taken out of the probability cone until about 24 hours before landfall. In a large metro people need to prepare 48-72 hours in advance. We saw the late shifts with Helene and numerous other storms in the last 5 years or so. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:

My wife's best friend has a home on Little Gasparilla Island that she shared with her sister. That home is now part of the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing left are the pylons the house was on.

It was the third house from the beach. The two in front of it were destroyed by Helene and then their house was destroyed by Milton. There is still alot of loss from this hurricane and give the NHC credit for doing an incredible job with all its forecasting for this one.

On the main thread they were discussing potential landfall at St. Pete as late as 4 pm that afternoon. It is only then that Milton started to take the hard right turn. If it had taken the turn 1-2 hours later we would have had a much worse story.

It’s at the point in some of that area from Ft Myers north to near Sarasota where you have to ask whether it’s worth it to rebuild. 5 hurricane hits either direct or close enough for significant damage in the last 3 years-Ian, Idalia, Debby, Helene and now Milton. I have no idea how many hoops you’ll have to jump through or deep your wallet has to be to get flood/hurricane insurance there soon. You can build better and more resilient for wind, that doesn’t help with water unless your home is high enough above sea level or you spend probably tens of billions on mitigation like seawalls, which climate change will render moot anyway because of rising sea levels. 

[gallopinggertie]

1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:

My wife's best friend has a home on Little Gasparilla Island that she shared with her sister. That home is now part of the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing left are the pylons the house was on.

It was the third house from the beach. The two in front of it were destroyed by Helene and then their house was destroyed by Milton. There is still alot of loss from this hurricane and give the NHC credit for doing an incredible job with all its forecasting for this one.

On the main thread they were discussing potential landfall at St. Pete as late as 4 pm that afternoon. It is only then that Milton started to take the hard right turn. If it had taken the turn 1-2 hours later we would have had a much worse story.

There is definitely a lot of loss. I think we will see a final damage tally of tens of billions of dollars from this one (the first preliminary estimate I saw was 30-50 billion, though it seems too early to pin down an exact number). Whereas the worst-case scenario I’m sure would have been well north of $100 billion. It’s wild how these last-minute wobbles and timing issues have such outsize effects on people’s lives and livelihoods. 

[Retrobuc]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s at the point in some of that area from Ft Myers north to near Sarasota where you have to ask whether it’s worth it to rebuild. 5 hurricane hits either direct or close enough for significant damage in the last 3 years-Ian, Idalia, Debby, Helene and now Milton. I have no idea how many hoops you’ll have to jump through or deep your wallet has to be to get flood/hurricane insurance there soon. You can build better and more resilient for wind, that doesn’t help with water unless your home is high enough above sea level or you spend probably tens of billions on mitigation like seawalls, which climate change will render moot anyway because of rising sea levels. 

Does any one have a non biased source that documents historical sea levels for Florida towns?  there seems to be no shortage of people wanting to own on barrier islands even with these storms. Id like to see historical sea level heights to pattern what the rise actually is.  

[Rjay]

Lots of jackasses in this thread