Hurricane Milton Banter

[NeffsvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My current insurance for a replacement value of ~ 500K is ~ $500 a year (not in Florida.)  That large difference and the rapid increases from 15 years ago are probably the issues most have whether insurance is 2K, 3K or 4K.  Between taxes and insurance, the penalty for living in Florida is having a "mortgage" in perpetuality even when the note is paid off.  

 

I'm paying about double here in FL compared to what I was paying for a home with half the value in PA. Same insurance company.

Property taxes were higher in PA. And here, my assessed value is not going to change significantly until I sell the home thanks to homestead exemption.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, gymengineer said:

Agreed on the complexities of storm surge. Just look at Ivan and Katrina for examples of very high west of landfall storm surges, while many other hurricanes do not have appreciable storm surges in that direction. Or Florence's Neuce River surge outperforming, or Dorian's surge on the backside of Hatteras. The storm surge forecasts are still the "weakest" part of the NHC products because of all the variables. 

I also want to note that easily verifiable facts are available to us this morning. Milton's storm surge was higher at both Ft. Myers and Naples than Helene's- significantly higher at Naples. Posts in the main thread seem to be speaking about the Tampa area only when comparing to Helene. 

 

Another major factor is the size and depth of the continental shelf. Also the angle of the coast and direction of landfall. 

[Bubbler86]

37 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

I'm paying about double here in FL compared to what I was paying for a home with half the value in PA. Same insurance company.

Property taxes were higher in PA. And here, my assessed value is not going to change significantly until I sell the home thanks to homestead exemption.

Yea, property taxes are a big difference per municipality but here in PA my combined total is under 3K for taxes and insurance while in Florida, the former Ocala House, it is over 7K now.  I have a larger house here.  No beach within 1.5 hours though.   7K a year is close to a healthy $600 a month. 

[Pityflakes]

3 hours ago, NeonPeon said:

You can compare the forecast surge to the reports we do have and draw your own conclusions without being obsessed with overperformance/underperformance or somehow emotionally involved. Surge is an interesting thing to discuss because it doesn't have a linear relationship with storm strength and has many confounding variables including very granular detail with regard to final landfall track, the tide, topography of bays etc. etc. There had been a prevalent thought that this storm would punch above its weight surge wise due to its antecedent strength. That doesn't seem to be the case, in that the really damaging worst case surge we see is is mainly confined to the southern side of the core of the storm, which was afterall quite a small area relative to other hurricanes, but there are lots of details to this. For instance, the breadth of its surge at the lower end is in keeping with the forecast, with areas like Naples and even further south getting surges in line with forecast. The higher end of the forecast also seems to have verified, but in a narrower band.

There's also the risk management side to the forecast in terms of messaging. Forecasters became increasingly confident that landfall north of tampa bay wasn't going to occur, but the risk was massive. Narrow or not, if the worst surge was someplace else, just a little further south in Charlotte Harbor, or a little further north in Tampa Bay, and you see worse effects and they had to be advertised.

The other thing occurring is it's pretty natural to make comparisons between this and the previous hurricane, especially in areas where there are similar effects despite completely different tracks. Size matters.

This.  

Can we please shelve the "surge is baked in because it used to be a Cat 5" myth.  Which as far as I can tell isn't based on anything other than people invoking Katrina.  Seems like surge is actually way more complicated and difficult to predict, but appears much more sensitive to topography, fetch, wind direction and duration, etc.  Wind speed of course matters (an actual 140/150 mph cane at landfall is going to push a lot of water, but those extreme impacts are localized to the actual eye wall), but "historical" wind speed/pressure of a storm is less relevant.  

 

ETA: I'm not downplaying the impact of Milton or suggesting it was a "bust" somehow.  But rather I'm suggesting that the surge impacts played out exactly like one would expect from a robust Cat 2/3 given approach angle and topography.  

[lilj4425]

4 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

With all the damage done by Milton, will anyone be able to get insurance in Florida now? Companies were already pulling out of large swaths of the state due to supposed inability to make a profit in them, leaving the state as the insurer of last resort. Those premiums will be astronomical.

Oh goodie. They’re all now gonna move here to South Carolina. I can’t wait. 

[Wannabehippie]

22 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Oh goodie. They’re all now gonna move here to South Carolina. I can’t wait. 

Well I am sure some will move to NC, and Georgia as well.

 

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

We're paying $2620.42 per year for almost $500k of coverage with State Farm, on a home with current market value of around $700k.

 

Any thoughts about why we're paying so much less than what just about everyone "on the internet" says they pay?

Are you away from the water? That is a huge factor in the premiums. Right now they are jacking them up in places that are right on the water, and are in major flood zones from storm surges.
 

[Wannabehippie]

I wonder where the Tampa Bay Rays will play next season. Their ballpark looks unplayable, and I can't imagine replacing the roof will be cheap or fast, especially when they are supposed to move in to a new stadium in a few years. Can they play at the Trop without the roof?

[BlizzardNole]

4 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

That is insane. How does she afford that?

(MIL paying $16,000 per year to insure small home on Marco Island).  It's gotten to be too much and she is getting ready to sell.  She's looking at condos.  We'll see how the selling goes given the insurance costs.

[lilj4425]

Did Lt. Dan survive?

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, Pityflakes said:

This.  

Can we please shelve the "surge is baked in because it used to be a Cat 5" myth.  Which as far as I can tell isn't based on anything other than people invoking Katrina.  Seems like surge is actually way more complicated and difficult to predict, but appears much more sensitive to topography, fetch, wind direction and duration, etc.  Wind speed of course matters (an actual 140/150 mph cane at landfall is going to push a lot of water, but those extreme impacts are localized to the actual eye wall), but "historical" wind speed/pressure of a storm is less relevant.  

 

ETA: I'm not downplaying the impact of Milton or suggesting it was a "bust" somehow.  But rather I'm suggesting that the surge impacts played out exactly like one would expect from a robust Cat 2/3 given approach angle and topography.  

I agree with most of what you said, but I think I might respectfully disagree in part.

I think that to an extent the higher surge was baked in. The expanse of it I think ended up lower geographically because the RMW ended up smaller and the specific landfall location to a lesser extent. There are examples of former upper echelon hurricanes bringing tremendous surge—Katrina obviously, but I think Ike and Opal are other examples. 

At its peak, here was the NHC surge forecast 

 

Of course the northern extent of this won’t verify but that’s because of landfall location and size. At this point, the NHC essentially had a Tampa hit:

 

The NHC expects to find 9-13’ in the peak surge zone, verifying their peak surge forecast. I don’t like people speaking in absolutes in tropical, but I do think it was clear this was going to be one of the worst surge events for the west coast of Florida and in some spots that forecast looks to verify. 
 

Maybe we’re saying the same thing though lol

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder where the Tampa Bay Rays will play next season. Their ballpark looks unplayable, and I can't imagine replacing the roof will be cheap or fast, especially when they are supposed to move in to a new stadium in a few years. Can they play at the Trop without the roof?

It's a fabric roof - structure looked fine from video (catwalks still there even). If not, Oakland has a stadium they can use. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

It's a fabric roof - structure looked fine from video (catwalks still there even). If not, Oakland has a stadium they can use. 

If that happened, the Tampa area would lose Billions in Red Sox/Yankees tourism. 

[gallopinggertie]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

It's a fabric roof - structure looked fine from video (catwalks still there even). If not, Oakland has a stadium they can use. 

The roof is made of fiberglass coated with Teflon, so I’m not sure if it’s accurate to call it fabric. Also, I’d be concerned about water damage to components of the structure as rain falls on it. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Are you away from the water? That is a huge factor in the premiums. Right now they are jacking them up in places that are right on the water, and are in major flood zones from storm surges.
 

2 miles from the coast, “lake” (drainage basin) in our backyard.
 

so not really. Which is kind of what I was hinting at. There are underlying reasons why properties are more expensive to insure, and there SHOULD be — but that doesn’t really seem to be part of the conversation.

 

What we’re seeing now is a reaction to climate change. Or more accurately, an industry updating its risk profiles near-real-time as the climate changes  vs a regulatory body that doesn’t even want to acknowledge that climate change exists.

[Floydbuster]

Storm surge is different because of so many factors. I remember we didn't see the dreaded storm surge with Hurricane Charley, even though it hit Charlotte Harbor, FL as a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane, because it was so tiny, fast moving and was only a Category 4 for about two hours prior to landfall. Hurricane Ian was the same intensity and the exact same landfall location, but was much, much larger in size, slower moving, and had hours and hours as a Category 4 and 5 to build the disastrous storm surge.

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

It's a fabric roof - structure looked fine from video (catwalks still there even). If not, Oakland has a stadium they can use. 

The stadium in Oakland might be in even worse shape than the Trop. Know to flood at the drop of a hat, leaky pipes everywhere. facilities in terrible shape.
But I don't know if the Trop can be used without the roof in place, even if the catwalks are still in place.

[jm1220]

25 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Storm surge is different because of so many factors. I remember we didn't see the dreaded storm surge with Hurricane Charley, even though it hit Charlotte Harbor, FL as a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane, because it was so tiny, fast moving and was only a Category 4 for about two hours prior to landfall. Hurricane Ian was the same intensity and the exact same landfall location, but was much, much larger in size, slower moving, and had hours and hours as a Category 4 and 5 to build the disastrous storm surge.

A lot has to do with size as you said, since larger size means more water moving. More intensity obviously means more water moving as well, and the higher the intensity plus size means obviously a higher surge. The track of the storm matters, since a storm heading perpendicular into a shore will tend to maximize surge vs one tracking near parallel. But then you have to factor in local effects like where bays, inlets and harbors funnel water in and the slope of the shelf. There's a reason Tampa Bay, NY Harbor and Lake Pontchartrain are considered huge risk surge areas, because they are great at funneling the water in from a surge and maximizing it. Sandy was a high end Cat 1 but gigantic in size and about 10mb lower in pressure at landfall than Milton, which meant a huge amount of water moved, into a very bad area for surge due to the upside down L-shaped NY Harbor, lots of bays and inlets to funnel the water and a long sloping shelf. Sandy also tracked in a way that drove the surge NW directly into the harbor. Part of the impact is just the luck of what tide the surge hits during. Sandy's peak surge was during a full moon high tide which in my town added 4-5 feet on top to what it would've been at low tide (storm tide was 10 feet roughly where I lived then and even higher in places in NYC and certain spots in NJ around funnel shaped inlets). You pointed out Charley, and Andrew 1992 wasn't really known for surge other than a small part of Miami due to its size primarily and factors specific to SE FL.

The E coast of FL isn't as susceptible to surge because the shelf is very close to shore and you generally don't have all these bays and inlets to funnel the water in. But of course any low lying location is susceptible from the right storm at the wrong time. 

Generally the IKE number as bdgwx posts often is a good indicator of the surge potential with the storm since it combines wind speed with overall storm size. 

Here's a good article explaining the different factors. Storm Surge Overview (noaa.gov)

[jburns]

5 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

There's a lot of nuance to Florida insurance that is often omitted from conversation. Location and age of structure are 2 of the big ones.

One nuance is the companies aren’t paying.

 

 

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla., June 25, 2024 —Weiss Ratings, the nation’s only independent insurance company rating agency, revealed today that three large providers of homeowners insurance in Florida closed nearly half of their claims last year with no payment whatsoever to policyholders.

Dr. Martin D. Weiss, founder of Weiss Ratings, commented, “In the wake of increasing property damage from storms and record insurance company bankruptcies, this high rate of claims denials is severely compounding the hardships for Florida homeowners.”

 

Among the large providers of homeowners policies in the state, Castle Key Indemnity Company denied 47.1% of the claims it closed last year, State Farm Florida Insurance Company denied 46.4%, and Castle Key Insurance Company denied 46%.

However, Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, a state-sponsored entity holding the single largest share of homeowners policies in Florida, failed to submit data requested by insurance commissioners regarding claims closed.

In addition, three smaller providers of homeowners policies also failed to make any payment on over 40% of their claims closed in 2023: Kin Interinsurance Network (denying 44%), American Integrity Insurance Company of Florida (43.9%), and PURE Specialty Exchange (40.5%).

Click here for full list of insurers in Florida with their denial rates on homeowner claims.

“Aggravating the crisis, both the insurers and authorities have hidden critical data that consumers urgently need to make informed decisions about which companies to rely on,” Weiss added. “At the same time, most insurance company ratings are bought and paid for by the insurance companies themselves, biasing the grades and painting lipstick on a pig, while keeping the public in the dark.

“But what’s most surprising of all is that some of the companies in Florida with the highest denial rates do have the financial strength to afford to pay a much larger portion of their closed claims.”

The 2022 MCAS national survey of claims payment problems, published by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, validates Weiss’ findings. It shows that, among the 50 states, insurers in Florida not only denied the largest percentage of unpaid claims, but also had the nation’s largest percentage of unprocessed claims and the second largest percentage of claims paid only after a 60-day delay. However, the NAIC reports only state-by-state averages and does not disclose its MCAS data on individual companies.

Weiss concludes, “The public can’t even begin to cope with the property insurance crisis until both the industry and the government provide full transparency. Strong truth in insurance legislation is urgently needed.”

To check their insurers’ current Weiss Safety Rating, reflecting each company’s financial strength, consumers can go to https://weissratings.com/en/insurance.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

IMO the storm did exactly what you’d expect a cat 3 to do. I think some hyperbole was due to the extreme strength of the storm earlier in its life, but that tiny 1 mile eyewall wasn’t going to have any impact on landfall impacts. This is a novel concept, but sometimes a major landfall can be just that, a major landfall and the exact impacts one would expect. Every major isn’t going to be Helene or Katrina, but this was a highly damaging storm and did exactly what a low-end cat 3 should do- 8-12’ surge in eyewall, 100-115 mph gusts just inland. The tornado outbreak, however, was exceptional. This storm likely will be retired due to its historic strength and widespread damage in Florida. So far Florida receives an A+ for hurricane prep for all 3 storms this year. Desantis, love him or hate him, is very effective at managing hurricane impacts in Florida. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

19 minutes ago, jburns said:

One nuance is the companies aren’t paying.

 

 

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla., June 25, 2024 —Weiss Ratings, the nation’s only independent insurance company rating agency, revealed today that three large providers of homeowners insurance in Florida closed nearly half of their claims last year with no payment whatsoever to policyholders.

Dr. Martin D. Weiss, founder of Weiss Ratings, commented, “In the wake of increasing property damage from storms and record insurance company bankruptcies, this high rate of claims denials is severely compounding the hardships for Florida homeowners.”

 

Among the large providers of homeowners policies in the state, Castle Key Indemnity Company denied 47.1% of the claims it closed last year, State Farm Florida Insurance Company denied 46.4%, and Castle Key Insurance Company denied 46%.

However, Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, a state-sponsored entity holding the single largest share of homeowners policies in Florida, failed to submit data requested by insurance commissioners regarding claims closed.

In addition, three smaller providers of homeowners policies also failed to make any payment on over 40% of their claims closed in 2023: Kin Interinsurance Network (denying 44%), American Integrity Insurance Company of Florida (43.9%), and PURE Specialty Exchange (40.5%).

Click here for full list of insurers in Florida with their denial rates on homeowner claims.

“Aggravating the crisis, both the insurers and authorities have hidden critical data that consumers urgently need to make informed decisions about which companies to rely on,” Weiss added. “At the same time, most insurance company ratings are bought and paid for by the insurance companies themselves, biasing the grades and painting lipstick on a pig, while keeping the public in the dark.

“But what’s most surprising of all is that some of the companies in Florida with the highest denial rates do have the financial strength to afford to pay a much larger portion of their closed claims.”

The 2022 MCAS national survey of claims payment problems, published by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, validates Weiss’ findings. It shows that, among the 50 states, insurers in Florida not only denied the largest percentage of unpaid claims, but also had the nation’s largest percentage of unprocessed claims and the second largest percentage of claims paid only after a 60-day delay. However, the NAIC reports only state-by-state averages and does not disclose its MCAS data on individual companies.

Weiss concludes, “The public can’t even begin to cope with the property insurance crisis until both the industry and the government provide full transparency. Strong truth in insurance legislation is urgently needed.”

To check their insurers’ current Weiss Safety Rating, reflecting each company’s financial strength, consumers can go to https://weissratings.com/en/insurance.

 

 

oh no doubt. And our elected officials made it even harder for us to collect what we’ve paid for.

Myriad problems without one easy solution.

 

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

Did Lt. Dan survive?

yeah he did

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

13 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

yeah he did

My coworker is obsessed. He couldn’t believe he was alive. I tried to explain yesterday he would be ok where he was. Guys certainly interesting and now famous. 

[JACKASS]

20 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Those questions are usually answered in the main thread up until it's go time. Once the system is within a couple of days of impact, there are just too many posts at the same time for the knowledgeable people to answer. I wish I had an answer. We used to be able to 5 post people, but haven't had that option in years. 

What happened to the 5 post option?

Way too many posters here need to be put on it.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

My coworker is obsessed. He couldn’t believe he was alive. I tried to explain yesterday he would be ok where he was. Guys certainly interesting and now famous. 

I’m sure he’ll monetize it somehow and upgrade his boat. 

[EWR757]

Most insurance companies, even large and popular names simply won't pay adequate adjustments on claims.   They will fight for months and years.   Most customers will eventually give up, some will fight back with adjusters, mediation and potentially litigation. 

 

The business is changed and insurance is much more profitable than it used to be, because quite frankly the insurers do everything they can to avoid paying claims.  

 

AllState's motto was once "you are in good hands".   They now fight you, their customer, with boxing gloves. 

 

Ethical insurance companies are few and far between.   Getting insurance is easy (even in FL), getting a reasonable payout on a large claim is quite another. 

 

It's a shame these practices are legal.  

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

IMO the storm did exactly what you’d expect a cat 3 to do. I think some hyperbole was due to the extreme strength of the storm earlier in its life, but that tiny 1 mile eyewall wasn’t going to have any impact on landfall impacts. This is a novel concept, but sometimes a major landfall can be just that, a major landfall and the exact impacts one would expect. Every major isn’t going to be Helene or Katrina, but this was a highly damaging storm and did exactly what a low-end cat 3 should do- 8-12’ surge in eyewall, 100-115 mph gusts just inland. The tornado outbreak, however, was exceptional. This storm likely will be retired due to its historic strength and widespread damage in Florida. So far Florida receives an A+ for hurricane prep for all 3 storms this year. Desantis, love him or hate him, is very effective at managing hurricane impacts in Florida. 

 To add to tornadoes, winds, and storm surge, the rainfall in central FL was highly anomalous considering the storm wasn’t large or slow moving. The rainfall rates were extreme with St Pete getting 5” in one hour! This lead to a record for any single day (records back to 1914)! The flooding in central FL was awful, including at Daytona, and still is ongoing.

[JACKASS]

My point couldn’t be proven better.

[Chinook]

It's 11 degrees in Florida and they didn't even mark the pressure on the map

[Roger Smith]

I've noticed that bogus station several times recently, always sub-20 deg. It's probably a wrongly coded lat-long for a location in the subarctic (27 N 82 W perhaps it's really 82N 27W which would be in n.e. Greenland? or some unintended upper air report? 

Off topic, but seeing a massive display of aurora borealis here.