Hurricane Milton Banter

[BombsAway1288]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Wow... Here is an excellent example of strong building code for wind. Obviously built for strong hurricanes, but held up during a strong tornado.
 

That is unbelievably strong tornado to lift up and move a roll-off dumpster on to a roof. Very very impressive 

[gallopinggertie]

Milton is about to cross over Florida’s tallest mountain range, the mighty Lake Wales Ridge. 

[Wannabehippie]

With all the damage done by Milton, will anyone be able to get insurance in Florida now? Companies were already pulling out of large swaths of the state due to supposed inability to make a profit in them, leaving the state as the insurer of last resort. Those premiums will be astronomical.

[wncsnow]

14 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Helene> Milton

I stand by this. Helene had a similar or higher surge in places 50-200 miles away from where it made landfall. Milton was a prolific tornado producer and had some 100 mph gusts in an urban area but Helene was a larger, more powerful storm at landfall. 

[BlizzardNole]

11 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

With all the damage done by Milton, will anyone be able to get insurance in Florida now? Companies were already pulling out of large swaths of the state due to supposed inability to make a profit in them, leaving the state as the insurer of last resort. Those premiums will be astronomical.

My wife's mom has a little house (maybe 1200 SF?) well away from the beach on Marco Island, and the HO insurance is $16,000 per year!

[DDweatherman]

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I stand by this. Helene had a similar or higher surge in places 50-200 miles away from where it made landfall. Milton was a prolific tornado producer and had some 100 mph gusts in an urban area but Helene was a larger, more powerful storm at landfall. 

I’m interested to see the damage estimates on Milton. We’ll see things funnel in from the hardest hit surge areas south of Sarasota I suspect, but I haven’t yet seen any level of extreme/catastrophic damage from freshwater flooding, surge, or winds just yet. The tornado damage might be the most impressive. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

With all the damage done by Milton, will anyone be able to get insurance in Florida now? Companies were already pulling out of large swaths of the state due to supposed inability to make a profit in them, leaving the state as the insurer of last resort. Those premiums will be astronomical.

Read an article yesterday that home prices are reversing there in part because it’s way harder to get insurance much less anything affordable. Premiums have doubled or more in the last few years especially after Ian and people don’t want to take the risk. I know around here the Carolinas are now the place to flock to not FL. 

[Martytdx]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Read an article yesterday that home prices are reversing there in part because it’s way harder to get insurance much less anything affordable. Premiums have doubled or more in the last few years especially after Ian and people don’t want to take the risk. I know around here the Carolinas are now the place to flock to not FL. 

Insurance prices along the Carolina shore are also going through the roof, though. My cousin had to give up his dream house in Topsail because the insurance was set to more than double over a 3-year span - and he was in one of the few places of somewhat higher elevation AND on stilts. 

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I stand by this. Helene had a similar or higher surge in places 50-200 miles away from where it made landfall. Milton was a prolific tornado producer and had some 100 mph gusts in an urban area but Helene was a larger, more powerful storm at landfall. 

I think we need to wait and see the totality of damage reports to know the true scale of Milton’s impact, but there’s no question that Helene’s was one of the worst in U.S. history.

Of course, there’s no competition…especially to families that lost everything or someone in either storm. 

[dan11295]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’m interested to see the damage estimates on Milton. We’ll see things funnel in from the hardest hit surge areas south of Sarasota I suspect, but I haven’t yet seen any level of extreme/catastrophic damage from freshwater flooding, surge, or winds just yet. The tornado damage might be the most impressive. 

The fact that Milton went south of Tampa Bay and the expected peak surge values came down a bit will no doubt mitigate potential damage. I would think places like Venice would have had the highest surge.

[Wannabehippie]

12 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

My wife's mom has a little house (maybe 1200 SF?) well away from the beach on Marco Island, and the HO insurance is $16,000 per year!

That is insane. How does she afford that?

[Wannabehippie]

6 minutes ago, Martytdx said:

Insurance prices along the Carolina shore are also going through the roof, though. My cousin had to give up his dream house in Topsail because the insurance was set to more than double over a 3-year span - and he was in one of the few places of somewhat higher elevation AND on stilts. 

The shore was the place to be in so many states. But with rising sea levels, powerful storm frequency increasing, people are going to be fleeing those areas in the coming years. Especially from those places that are literally built on the beach on stilts.

[gymengineer]

This banter thread and the main thread are indistinguishable at the moment. It’s always the case the morning after a hurricane landfall that the vacuum of information leads to lots of guess posts. What’s most amusing is the 10’ above normal water level trace near Sarasota, with Helene’s much lower height visible, juxtaposed to these confident posts that the storm surge underperformed. 

 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The shore was the place to be in so many states. But with rising sea levels, powerful storm frequency increasing, people are going to be fleeing those areas in the coming years. Especially from those places that are literally built on the beach on stilts.

TN is another place New Yorkers are flocking to these days lol. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

This banter thread and the main thread are indistinguishable at the moment. It’s always the case the morning after a hurricane landfall that the vacuum of information leads to lots of guess posts. What’s most amusing is the 10’ above normal water level trace near Sarasota, with Helene’s much lower height visible, juxtaposed to these confident posts that the storm surge underperformed. 

 

It’s always a guessing game and speculation until we see the footage and hear the stories. There are lots of local effects with the surge also such as in these smaller inlets and canals that the water gets funneled into. It’s very common where I live in any type of coastal storm much less the bigger ones. 

[FPizz]

10 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

That is insane. How does she afford that?

It is a house on a small exclusive island, so its high no matter how close to the beach you are.  

 

[NoCORH4L]

19 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

That is insane. How does she afford that?

She's rich?

[NoCORH4L]

All barrier islands should be left to nature and have public access to all. No rebuilding.

[dan11295]

Obviously we don't have a full scope of damage yet. While the 10-15' surge did not materialize for Tampa Bay, this was still a category 3 impacting a lot of populated real estate. 

[NeonPeon]

20 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

This banter thread and the main thread are indistinguishable at the moment. It’s always the case the morning after a hurricane landfall that the vacuum of information leads to lots of guess posts. What’s most amusing is the 10’ above normal water level trace near Sarasota, with Helene’s much lower height visible, juxtaposed to these confident posts that the storm surge underperformed. 

 

You can compare the forecast surge to the reports we do have and draw your own conclusions without being obsessed with overperformance/underperformance or somehow emotionally involved. Surge is an interesting thing to discuss because it doesn't have a linear relationship with storm strength and has many confounding variables including very granular detail with regard to final landfall track, the tide, topography of bays etc. etc. There had been a prevalent thought that this storm would punch above its weight surge wise due to its antecedent strength. That doesn't seem to be the case, in that the really damaging worst case surge we see is is mainly confined to the southern side of the core of the storm, which was afterall quite a small area relative to other hurricanes, but there are lots of details to this. For instance, the breadth of its surge at the lower end is in keeping with the forecast, with areas like Naples and even further south getting surges in line with forecast. The higher end of the forecast also seems to have verified, but in a narrower band.

There's also the risk management side to the forecast in terms of messaging. Forecasters became increasingly confident that landfall north of tampa bay wasn't going to occur, but the risk was massive. Narrow or not, if the worst surge was someplace else, just a little further south in Charlotte Harbor, or a little further north in Tampa Bay, and you see worse effects and they had to be advertised.

The other thing occurring is it's pretty natural to make comparisons between this and the previous hurricane, especially in areas where there are similar effects despite completely different tracks. Size matters.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

You can compare the forecast surge to the reports we do have and draw your own conclusions without being obsessed with overperformance/underperformance or somehow emotionally involved. Surge is an interesting thing to discuss because it doesn't have a linear relationship with storm strength and has many confounding variables including very granular detail with regard to final landfall track, the tide, topography of bays etc. etc. There had been a prevalent thought that this storm would punch above its weight surge wise due to its antecedent strength. That doesn't seem to be the case, in that the really damaging worst case surge we see is is mainly confined to the southern side of the core of the storm, which was afterall quite a small area relative to other hurricanes, but there are lots of details to this. For instance, the breadth of its surge at the lower end is in keeping with the forecast, with areas like Naples and even further south getting surges in line with forecast. The higher end of the forecast also seems to have verified, but in a narrower band.

There's also the risk management side to the forecast in terms of messaging. Forecasters became increasingly confident that landfall north of tampa bay wasn't going to occur, but the risk was massive. Narrow or not, if the worst surge was someplace else, just a little further south in Charlotte Harbor, or a little further north in Tampa Bay, and you see worse effects and they had to be advertised.

The other thing occurring is it's pretty natural to make comparisons between this and the previous hurricane, especially in areas where there are similar effects despite completely different tracks. Size matters.

IKE is a good measure for how serious the surge might be over a wide area since it takes into the account the entire area affected by strong winds, which is what moves more or less water. As IKE increases usually more water is being moved even if the max sustained winds might be decreasing. Larger storms move much more water, which then gets funneled into bays and harbors. Maybe Milton didn’t have time to take advantage of a larger size area of strong winds to build a surge but we’ll find out soon. 

[gymengineer]

6 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

You can compare the forecast surge to the reports we do have and draw your own conclusions without being obsessed with overperformance/underperformance or somehow emotionally involved. Surge is an interesting thing to discuss because it doesn't have a linear relationship with storm strength and has many confounding variables including very granular detail with regard to final landfall track, the tide, topography of bays etc. etc. There had been a prevalent thought that this storm would punch above its weight surge wise due to its antecedent strength. That doesn't seem to be the case, in that the really damaging worst case surge we see is is mainly confined to the southern side of the core of the storm, which was afterall quite a small area relative to other hurricanes, but there are lots of details to this. For instance, the breadth of its surge at the lower end is in keeping with the forecast, with areas like Naples and even further south getting surges in line with forecast. The higher end of the forecast also seems to have verified, but in a narrower band.

There's also the risk management side to the forecast in terms of messaging. Forecasters became increasingly confident that landfall north of tampa bay wasn't going to occur, but the risk was massive. Narrow or not, if the worst surge was someplace else, just a little further south in Charlotte Harbor, or a little further north in Tampa Bay, and you see worse effects and they had to be advertised.

The other thing occurring is it's pretty natural to make comparisons between this and the previous hurricane, especially in areas where there are similar effects despite completely different tracks. Size matters.

Agreed on the complexities of storm surge. Just look at Ivan and Katrina for examples of very high west of landfall storm surges, while many other hurricanes do not have appreciable storm surges in that direction. Or Florence's Neuce River surge outperforming, or Dorian's surge on the backside of Hatteras. The storm surge forecasts are still the "weakest" part of the NHC products because of all the variables. 

I also want to note that easily verifiable facts are available to us this morning. Milton's storm surge was higher at both Ft. Myers and Naples than Helene's- significantly higher at Naples. Posts in the main thread seem to be speaking about the Tampa area only when comparing to Helene. 

 

[NeonPeon]

9 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Agreed on the complexities of storm surge. Just look at Ivan and Katrina for examples of very high west of landfall storm surges, while many other hurricanes do not have appreciable storm surges in that direction. Or Florence's Neuce River surge outperforming, or Dorian's surge on the backside of Hatteras. The storm surge forecasts are still the "weakest" part of the NHC products because of all the variables. 

I also want to note that easily verifiable facts are available to us this morning. Milton's storm surge was higher at both Ft. Myers and Naples than Helene's- significantly higher at Naples. Posts in the main thread seem to be speaking about the Tampa area only when comparing to Helene. 

 

Fort Myers they were almost identical. Naples a foot higher, yes. I think that reflects the fact that the hurricane at a lower latitude was stronger, and that in this case anyway, the surge was reactive to the immediate intensity. When I was watching Naples yesterday, I thought we'd see much more surge than Helene in the area between Bonita Beach and Englewood, say. I certainly thought that Fort Myers would be significantly higher than Helene, and it was basically the same. Obviously that narrow band that got the worst onshore wind got whacked, and that never happened with Helene as it was miles away.

I think the fact that Milton was small also means that the direction of wave travel wasn't the same, nor for as long a period of time. You can see that in the fact that the surges recorded for Helene are broader, instead of spikes you have hills.

[NeffsvilleWx]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

My wife's mom has a little house (maybe 1200 SF?) well away from the beach on Marco Island, and the HO insurance is $16,000 per year!

 

Meanwhile, I'm paying $2500/yr for a home twice the size,  2 miles inland on the Space coast. Home build after 2000, wind mitigation discounts fully maximized, and not in a flood zone. That $2500 includes the flood insurance we carry just in case.

There's a lot of nuance to Florida insurance that is often omitted from conversation. Location and age of structure are 2 of the big ones.

[Bubbler86]

23 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

Meanwhile, I'm paying $2500/yr for a home twice the size,  2 miles inland on the Space coast. Home build after 2000, wind mitigation discounts fully maximized, and not in a flood zone. That $2500 includes the flood insurance we carry just in case.

There's a lot of nuance to Florida insurance that is often omitted from conversation. Location and age of structure are 2 of the big ones.

People in Ocala with as new homes, 2000-2010 types,  are paying twice that per year.  I do not know anyone there paying less than 4K for a standard 1800 Sq foot house.    Some of the issue is home values as many of their homes are 300-400K (not that much but double what they were 10 years ago) 

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

With all the damage done by Milton, will anyone be able to get insurance in Florida now? Companies were already pulling out of large swaths of the state due to supposed inability to make a profit in them, leaving the state as the insurer of last resort. Those premiums will be astronomical.

Good question, the insurance company my wife works for cut off Florida a few years ago, I'm sure more will follow now.

[NeffsvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

People in Ocala with as new homes are paying twice that per year.  I do not know anyone there paying less than 4K for a standard 1800 Sq foot house. 

 

We're paying $2620.42 per year for almost $500k of coverage with State Farm, on a home with current market value of around $700k.

 

Any thoughts about why we're paying so much less than what just about everyone "on the internet" says they pay?

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

We're paying $2620.42 per year for almost $500k of coverage.

Yea, that is extremely cheap for Florida.  I moved from there in 2018 and was paying almost that for a 2100 Sq foot house south of Ocala and prices have doubled since then in that area.    I have seen cheaper prices for homes built since 2020.    

[NeffsvilleWx]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, that is extremely cheap for Florida.  I moved from there in 2018 and was paying almost that for a 2100 Sq foot house south of Ocala and prices have doubled since then in that area.    I have seen cheaper prices for homes built since 2020.    

 

Additionally, FMV of home is currently about $700k with assessed value of $550k. If insurance is so big of an issue for literally everyone in the state as the internet would have you believe, why is our insurance so cheap?

 

(note: I'm not downplaying the insurance crisis in the state. I'm just trying to figure out why ours is so much cheaper than what's typically reported).

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

Additionally, FMV of home is currently about $700k with assessed value of $550k. If insurance is so big of an issue for literally everyone in the state as the internet would have you believe, why is our insurance so cheap?

My current insurance for a replacement value of ~ 500K is ~ $500 a year (not in Florida.)  That large difference and the rapid increases from 15 years ago are probably the issues most have whether insurance is 2K, 3K or 4K.  Between taxes and insurance, the penalty for living in Florida is having a "mortgage" in perpetuality even when the note is paid off.