lilj4425 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 SAVE THE FLAMINGOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: I have friends in Punta Gorda who stubbornly refuse to evacuate. I really hope they avoid the worst of this. Right on the water in a two story apartment building The daughter of this man, who died during Hurricane Ian because he wouldn't leave Fort Myers beach, has suggested people share his last Facebook post to convince people to leave. https://www.facebook.com/mitch.pacyna/posts/pfbid0k65c5F5Gk4YA9hvhJGKSxT96Y8N7ZFUcxVACyJgFhSsrdmfNVgGtKYgMye4GXEmNl 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tornado's really starting to pop up now, up to 5 Warnings and 1 verified on the ground. That line just now coming onshore around Naples is pretty nasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 21 minutes ago, hooralph said: I can't speak to all the individual choices that go into not evacuating, but in the case of my in-laws (on a canal in Port Charlotte), it is a toxic stew of nihilism/fatalism, MAGA-disenchantment with "experts" and just bad info or rationalizing based on past experience. My MIL last night said "It's a wait and see game as to where it makes landfall. Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us because a lot less surge if that happens." With Helene, the amount of people (at least per social media) in Appalachia who were "not expecting" to be impacted that way was an alarm bell that says how people are getting critical information is getting distorted by cord cutting and reliance on social media. 4 minutes ago, goctican said: What evac zone? I'm assuming A... which is going to be a very tragic decision if so, most likely. Not trying to doom out hype. They may still have an hour to go. I've been calling it Toxic Positivity and Confirmation Bias. Seen it for decades everywhere from CA to FL to NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 17 minutes ago, goctican said: What evac zone? I'm assuming A... which is going to be a very tragic decision if so, most likely. Not trying to doom out hype. They may still have an hour to go. Oh they are squarely in A. Again, right on the water. This is the map of their location (red dot) with a 6' surge, which supports their experience that they are on "higher ground" as 4-5' surges have not reached them. At 7 feet their house is wet and it's off to the roof from there... "Best case" scenario is it's "only" an 8' surge and they only take on about a foot of water but damage to their entire area will be substantial. Obviously a 12' surge will render the entire area uninhabitable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I'm pretty sure its probably not the most reliable resource but just looking at the weather.com hourly forecast. For the last 24+ hours we have had a 5-6 hour period with winds 50-60 MPH. Now there isn't a single hour with winds even as high as 40. This is a huge change in terms of wind effects. I don't know how reliable/accurate those are but its a pretty significant change to the untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 12 minutes ago, hooralph said: Oh they are squarely in A. Again, right on the water. This is the map of their location (red dot) with a 6' surge, which supports their experience that they are on "higher ground" as 4-5' surges have not reached them. At 7 feet their house is wet and it's off to the roof from there... "Best case" scenario is it's "only" an 8' surge and they only take on about a foot of water but damage to their entire area will be substantial. Obviously a 12' surge will render the entire area uninhabitable. Share a couple surge videos from Sanibel and Ian with them. People on second floors trying to escape water if I remember right. Might get them to go. But that window is rapidly closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, goctican said: Share a couple surge videos from Sanibel and Ian with them. People on second floors trying to escape water if I remember right. Might get them to go. But that window is rapidly closing. Or the ones from Michael which were truly terrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, goctican said: Share a couple surge videos from Sanibel and Ian with them. People on second floors trying to escape water if I remember right. Might get them to go. But that window is rapidly closing. Tornado warnings already on their doorstep. I think it's too late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 May have just seen a Tornado cross Pine Island Road over Matlacha. Local news had it on their stream. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Hurricane hunters have reported large flocks of birds in the eye. They got stuck from the Yucatan. They are exhausted and will try to land once the circulation goes over Florida. Be on the lookout for them 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Man, this sucks. The gulf coast the way it is geographically set up has a lot of spots that are surprisingly not terrible for a storm to hit. Outside of Houston/galveston and New Orleans, this is probably the absolute worst place this could landfall. Honestly Tampa might be the worst case of any of them given the exposed bay where at least with Houston and New Orleans you do have some land barriers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Man, this sucks. The gulf coast the way it is geographically set up has a lot of spots that are surprisingly not terrible for a storm to hit. Outside of Houston/galveston and New Orleans, this is probably the absolute worst place this could landfall. Honestly Tampa might be the worst case of any of them given the exposed bay where at least with Houston and New Orleans you do have some land barriers Seems like its making a B line for Tampa 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 6 minutes ago, user13 said: Seems like its making a B line for Tampa interesting what I'm seeing is the complete opposite looks like it's back to more of a NE movement of late and seems to be getting further and further away. Wind projections falling in line, seems like every time i refresh the wind forecast keep dropping at least here just north of Tampa. With the larger wind field I would have expected it to go up not down. Looking at the Wobble tracker it seems like a Sarasota LF could be in place and if the east turn is even more dramatic even south of there in play. Of course another wobble or two more North and Tampa comes back in play but it seems to be going well South at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillsweather Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This will have 1/3rd the surge power as katrina and remember we only remember katrina for what was the levee failure and humanitarian crisis. Same with Helene the storm itself wasn't super bad it was the humanitarian crisis further inland that is the bigger topic. All hurricanes will bring strong winds and surge so there will be that but this isn't a biblical storm that people love to make every storm into this is just a typical hurricane that just happen to be so small and over uncharted waters that gained strength far faster then thought and reached cat 5 and sub 900mb. Also we are able to do way more in depth analyst over mb pressure with the technology we have now vs 50+ years ago.. And this was only going to be a big deal because it was going to hit an area that never gotten a direct hit in 100 years (small period of history btw..) yet its not going to even make a direct landfall there now so its just a normal hurricane with normal evacuate if your near the beach or live in its path. Enough with making this biblical bs.. unless you dont believe in science because earth isn't 100 years old and thats as far as we go back with weather and even then was hit or miss in info.. Earth is over 4 billion years old.. If this hurricane was like 200-300 times bigger and 20-30 times stronger then its biblical. 2 2 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 6 minutes ago, skillsweather said: This will have 1/3rd the surge power as katrina and remember we only remember katrina for what was the levee failure and humanitarian crisis. Same with Helene the storm itself wasn't super bad it was the humanitarian crisis further inland that is the bigger topic. All hurricanes will bring strong winds and surge so there will be that but this isn't a biblical storm that people love to make every storm into this is just a typical hurricane that just happen to be so small and over uncharted waters that gained strength far faster then thought and reached cat 5 and sub 900mb. Also we are able to do way more in depth analyst over mb pressure with the technology we have now vs 50+ years ago.. And this was only going to be a big deal because it was going to hit an area that never gotten a direct hit in 100 years (small period of history btw..) yet its not going to even make a direct landfall there now so its just a normal hurricane with normal evacuate if your near the beach or live in its path. Enough with making this biblical bs.. unless you dont believe in science because earth isn't 100 years old and thats as far as we go back with weather and even then was hit or miss in info.. Earth is over 4 billion years old.. If this hurricane was like 200-300 times bigger and 20-30 times stronger then its biblical. i gotta be honest after reading this all the way through the bolded really surprised the hell out of me 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, skillsweather said: This will have 1/3rd the surge power as katrina and remember we only remember katrina for what was the levee failure and humanitarian crisis. Same with Helene the storm itself wasn't super bad it was the humanitarian crisis further inland that is the bigger topic. All hurricanes will bring strong winds and surge so there will be that but this isn't a biblical storm that people love to make every storm into this is just a typical hurricane that just happen to be so small and over uncharted waters that gained strength far faster then thought and reached cat 5 and sub 900mb. Also we are able to do way more in depth analyst over mb pressure with the technology we have now vs 50+ years ago.. And this was only going to be a big deal because it was going to hit an area that never gotten a direct hit in 100 years (small period of history btw..) yet its not going to even make a direct landfall there now so its just a normal hurricane with normal evacuate if your near the beach or live in its path. Enough with making this biblical bs.. unless you dont believe in science because earth isn't 100 years old and thats as far as we go back with weather and even then was hit or miss in info.. Earth is over 4 billion years old.. If this hurricane was like 200-300 times bigger and 20-30 times stronger then its biblical. I just checked. Of the more than 1400 posts in the main thread, there is one use of the word "biblical" and it was in reference to a model run. Otherwise, the thread is full of people assessing actual data and science and comparing to past circumstances and situations. You are processing this through a filter of relativist, denialist bullshit, the same shit that has people tuning out government warnings and staying in harms way. Can you name one storm that posed a greater surge threat to the stretch of coast from Tampa to Port Charlotte and explain why? Otherwise, what people are talking about is actual science. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 11 minutes ago, MacChump said: i gotta be honest after reading this all the way through the bolded really surprised the hell out of me I’m proud of you for reading through it all, sheesh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 “The storm itself wasn’t super bad it’s just humanitarian crisis it caused was” is one of the funniest things I’ve ever read. And that’s where I stopped reading lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillsweather Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 hours ago, Normandy said: “The storm itself wasn’t super bad it’s just humanitarian crisis it caused was” is one of the funniest things I’ve ever read. And that’s where I stopped reading lol I get what he's saying, and it does provide more context so you understand how these things unfold. But it's like rolling up and saying "bro, the dinos had worse hurricanes! chill out!" or "have you ever seen the movie where the superstorm destroys everything?" Thanks for the biblical perspective and all that, but I'm living this right now in real time on the ground, my friend. Just trying to collect the possibilities from fellow weather nerds, both for safety and science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Wild how much this has dropped in the last few hours. The wind forecast were all over 40 MPH and most over 50 MPH just a few hours ago. My question is did the organization of the storm change? Wasn't it supposed to be heavier winds to the Northwest of the actual land fall, is that no longer the case? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The severe is overperforming so not a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Not sure if that was directed at me but I by no means want to give off an indication the storm as a whole is a bust, the Tornado outbreak already has been bad and its only going to get worse for a ton of people as the day and night go on. My area specifically however seems to be getting spared, of course all this pending a wobble or two which can change things quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Wild how much this has dropped in the last few hours. The wind forecast were all over 40 MPH and most over 50 MPH just a few hours ago. My question is did the organization of the storm change? Wasn't it supposed to be heavier winds to the Northwest of the actual land fall, is that no longer the case? Follow the NWS forecast for your area... not crappy weather.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, Amped said: The severe is overperforming so not a bust. The two main effects of this storm that have been underscored are 1) storm surge and 2) a heavy rain event including PRE I could ask what the obsession with bust is in general, but I'd imagine the things need to have a chance to occur or not before you can assess... whether they've occurred or not. The tornados are an unwelcome surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I wonder where Hurricane Josh has set himself up. He hasn't updated on twitter in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, The Iceman said: Follow the NWS forecast for your area... not crappy weather.com. are they not the same? I always just assumed that is where they got their info from. Showing my noobie side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Not sure if that was directed at me but I by no means want to give off an indication the storm as a whole is a bust, the Tornado outbreak already has been bad and its only going to get worse for a ton of people as the day and night go on. My area specifically however seems to be getting spared, of course all this pending a wobble or two which can change things quickly. Where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: I wonder where Hurricane Josh has set himself up. He hasn't updated on twitter in a while. He’s currently in Sarasota 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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