Hurricane Milton Banter

[gallopinggertie]

52 minutes ago, Shenanagins1091 said:

I am not a big fan of people measuring a hurricane season based on dollars. Everything cost more every single year - houses, properties, cars, boats, etc, and then there is just simply more 'stuff' at the coast year over year. Not really surprising the financial cost increases. I live on the coast and I take our environmental concerns very seriously, but just do not like the idea that total cost of storms = worse hurricane season than XYZ year - if that makes sense.

I’ve seen a list on wiki of normalized costs for hurricanes, I.e. how much damage a hurricane would cause if it hit today. I’m not sure how complete it is though. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Costliest_U.S._Atlantic_hurricanes_by_wealth_normalization

[WolfStock1]

13 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

I’ve seen a list on wiki of normalized costs for hurricanes, I.e. how much damage a hurricane would cause if it hit today. I’m not sure how complete it is though. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Costliest_U.S._Atlantic_hurricanes_by_wealth_normalization

Very interesting.   Would be curious to see the methodology behind it; what "societal conditions" means.   Ideally it would account not only for inflation, but specifically inflation in housing and businesses (generally higher than headline inflation, which is just consumer goods), as well as not only the increasing crowded-ness of coastal areas but also the "luxury" factor of more luxury real estate construction on the coast.    Overall the chart seems about right actually.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

50 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

Very interesting.   Would be curious to see the methodology behind it; what "societal conditions" means.   Ideally it would account not only for inflation, but specifically inflation in housing and businesses (generally higher than headline inflation, which is just consumer goods), as well as not only the increasing crowded-ness of coastal areas but also the "luxury" factor of more luxury real estate construction on the coast.    Overall the chart seems about right actually.

Excellent post. The luxury factor is a big part of why I think the hurricane of 38 should be higher up the list. The hamptons has some of the most expensive real estate on the planet and was literally ground zero. While there were some estates even in 38 the vast majority of the area was farms and sleepy fishing villages. 
Miami speaks for itself. That’s the big “yet” I can certainly think of a much worse case then 26. Think Dorian at peak intensity landfalling right in south beach. 

[gallopinggertie]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Excellent post. The luxury factor is a big part of why I think the hurricane of 38 should be higher up the list. The hamptons has some of the most expensive real estate on the planet and was literally ground zero. While there were some estates even in 38 the vast majority of the area was farms and sleepy fishing villages. 
Miami speaks for itself. That’s the big “yet” I can certainly think of a much worse case then 26. Think Dorian at peak intensity landfalling right in south beach. 

That’s one I’ve thought about, especially if it stalled over Miami like it did over the Bahamas. Another bad scenario would be if Andrew had made landfall 10 or 20 miles north of where it did. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

That’s one I’ve thought about, especially if it stalled over Miami like it did over the Bahamas. Another bad scenario would be if Andrew had made landfall 10 or 20 miles north of where it did. 

Yeah Andrew further north is obviously a disaster of epic proportions, sky scrapers down to the steal beams. But even that isn’t the worst case scenario as Andrew was small and in that case it’s just Miami. The real killer would be an Irma at peak intensity that crushes the entire corridor to Palm Beach. 

 

 

 

[jm1220]

52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah Andrew further north is obviously a disaster of epic proportions, sky scrapers down to the steal beams. But even that isn’t the worst case scenario as Andrew was small and in that case it’s just Miami. The real killer would be an Irma at peak intensity that crushes the entire corridor to Palm Beach. 

 

 

 

Irma was also supposed to make its right turn sooner and hug the coast right up to Cape Canaveral. If it didn’t run into Cuba and made that right turn sooner it would’ve easily been the most destructive hurricane in US history. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Irma was also supposed to make its right turn sooner and hug the coast right up to Cape Canaveral. If it didn’t run into Cuba and made that right turn sooner it would’ve easily been the most destructive hurricane in US history. 

I just have this Irma North of the islands, at 180mph with that massive 60nm eye IR pic stuck in my head. That exact storm going into south Florida is the true national disaster multi generational storm that will one day happen. Hopefully later rather then sooner because it’s going to bankrupt the insurance industry and affect the entire country… (never mind the local suffering)

[Windspeed]

Irma was also supposed to make its right turn sooner and hug the coast right up to Cape Canaveral. If it didn’t run into Cuba and made that right turn sooner it would’ve easily been the most destructive hurricane in US history. 

Dorian was also so close call. A 48-hour change in 590s dm heights prevented a 500+ billion disaster. Hard to imagine a 15nm Category 5 eyewall at MPI landfalling over some of the most expensive real estate in the US, then slowing turning NNW and riding the entire eastern shoreline as a weakened Category 1-2.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Dorian was also so close call. A 48-hour change in 590s dm heights prevented a 500+ billion disaster. Hard to imagine a 15nm Category 5 eyewall at MPI landfalling over some of the most expensive real estate in the US, then slowing turning NNW and riding the entire eastern shoreline as a weakened Category 1-2.

SE FL has been incredibly lucky and is overdue unfortunately.