Hurricane Milton Banter

[jburns]

I ran the last group of posts through AI and got this as the result.

 

YOU CAN’T FIX STUPID

 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Retrobuc said:

You would never know if experiments like this were going on now anyway.  I'm not saying the government is purposely trying to send storms and injure people, that's crazy.  However, it is equally as crazy to think these types of programs are not going on regularly and sometimes go awry, like the hurricane seeding did.  Ask yourself how many things labeled conspiracy theories since 2020/Covid have actually been proven to have a high likelihood of being true or outright true?

Many apparently don't think there's such things as Conspiracies. Those are the one's that can easily be controlled or get the wool pulled over their Eyes. Much of the reason is political. If Satan took over their Party they'd blind themselves to it and go right along with him. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

I post on a certain other regional weather forum, and some of the people there don’t even believe climate change is real. One of them said these conspiracy theories are the fault of climate scientists. Absolutely unhinged 

Exactly . Everything is conspiracy theories to many. Climate change is obvious. You must have missed my point in the above post you reacted to.

[gallopinggertie]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly . Everything is conspiracy theories to many. Climate change is obvious. You must have missed my point in the above post you reacted to.

Oh sorry, I took it the opposite of how you meant it - my bad. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

Oh sorry, I took it the opposite of how you meant it - my bad. 

It's cool man. It happens. 

[cptcatz]

On 10/10/2024 at 1:15 PM, Pityflakes said:

This.  

Can we please shelve the "surge is baked in because it used to be a Cat 5" myth.  Which as far as I can tell isn't based on anything other than people invoking Katrina.  Seems like surge is actually way more complicated and difficult to predict, but appears much more sensitive to topography, fetch, wind direction and duration, etc.  Wind speed of course matters (an actual 140/150 mph cane at landfall is going to push a lot of water, but those extreme impacts are localized to the actual eye wall), but "historical" wind speed/pressure of a storm is less relevant.  

 

ETA: I'm not downplaying the impact of Milton or suggesting it was a "bust" somehow.  But rather I'm suggesting that the surge impacts played out exactly like one would expect from a robust Cat 2/3 given approach angle and topography.  

I think the problem with using Katrina as an example of "surge being baked in" is that Katrina was a massive category 5 that weakened IMMEDIATELY before landfall.  Even though Katrina made landfall as a cat 3, it still made landfall with a central pressure of 920 mb, which is comparable to a cat 5.  I mean look at these two satelite images... do you really think these would produce anywhere close to the same surges?

I'm no professional meteorologist but I think the biggest factor for surge is the size of the storm.  We clearly saw that with Sandy, Ian, Helene, Katrina, as opposed to tiny storms like Charley and Milton.

[Normandy]

Agree.  The surge values can’t be assumed to be extreme because the storm is a cat 5 l.  I would argue the biggest indicator of severe surge is the radius of TS force winds.  That is something that Katrina, Helene, and Ike all had common

[NorthHillsWx]

Totally disagree with the “surge is already baked in” notion with small storms. With a large storm like Helene, Ike, Katrina, Laura, yes, sure. If it was a large strong hurricane when the storms winds reached shelf waters, landfall intensity matters very little for surge values. There is nothing wrong with over-preparing and I think Florida did an incredible job getting people out of harms way. The majority of the deaths from this storm were from the tornado outbreak which you cannot really prepare for 

[Normandy]

The only small storm I can think of that produced a significant surge was hurricane Andrew (16 feet I believe).  For the small storm to produce substantial surge it basically has to be a cat five nuclear grade cane.  Even charley didn’t produce much.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, Normandy said:

The only small storm I can think of that produced a significant surge was hurricane Andrew (16 feet I believe).  For the small storm to produce substantial surge it basically has to be a cat five nuclear grade cane.  Even charley didn’t produce much.  

Tropical cyclone Tracy 1974 the smallest landfalling major in history had a peak surge of 13’. And tropical storm force winds only extened out 30 miles. So yes is is very important but so is intensity. 

[Normandy]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Tropical cyclone Tracy 1974 the smallest landfalling major in history had a peak surge of 13’. And tropical storm force winds only extened out 30 miles. So yes is is very important but so is intensity. 

That’s a good shout.  Tracy is an interesting case study and makes me wonder if it was a bit more intense than realized.  A cyclone that small is essentially producing a tsunami like water rise which has to have tremendous wind to generate it at such a small and localized scale

[gymengineer]

It reads in this thread that the people still posting- in a continuing discussion about storm surge- have all accepted that Milton was a tiny or small hurricane. Milton’s 255 mile extent of tropical storm force winds heading into landfall is not indicative of a small storm. Sure, the extent of hurricane force winds didn’t expand to what was originally modeled, but a 35 mile extent is not tiny, just “regularly” compact. 
 

Milton was a large storm with plenty of ground observations showing damaging winds well away from the landfall point on Florida’s west coast. The extent of strong winds didn’t start large and instead increased from the day before steadily into landfall, so this wasn’t a situation with multiple days of huge fetch pushing toward the coast. 
 

As for the storm surge discussion, as people have pointed out, coastal Sarasota County and Charlotte County have a dearth of tidal gauges. The video evidence from parts of that coast point to a 10’+ surge. So, I think the NHC Tropical Cyclone Report for Milton will be illuminating and I would guess it would justify the 10’+ forecast for a stretch of the coast Sarasota city southward. 

[jm1220]

48 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

It reads in this thread that the people still posting- in a continuing discussion about storm surge- have all accepted that Milton was a tiny or small hurricane. Milton’s 255 mile extent of tropical storm force winds heading into landfall is not indicative of a small storm. Sure, the extent of hurricane force winds didn’t expand to what was originally modeled, but a 35 mile extent is not tiny, just “regularly” compact. 
 

Milton was a large storm with plenty of ground observations showing damaging winds well away from the landfall point on Florida’s west coast. The extent of strong winds didn’t start large and instead increased from the day before steadily into landfall, so this wasn’t a situation with multiple days of huge fetch pushing toward the coast. 
 

As for the storm surge discussion, as people have pointed out, coastal Sarasota County and Charlotte County have a dearth of tidal gauges. The video evidence from parts of that coast point to a 10’+ surge. So, I think the NHC Tropical Cyclone Report for Milton will be illuminating and I would guess it would justify the 10’+ forecast for a stretch of the coast Sarasota city southward. 

The damage in Punta Gorda with boats tossed around town and the severe structural damage on the barrier islands looks like it was a serious surge, 10’ or higher like you said. There was a gauge in Sarasota that apparently recorded 10 foot surge, and the worst surge may have been south of there in the harbors/inlets that channel in the water. 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

On 10/11/2024 at 12:05 PM, Hotair said:

US Mets face death threats after hurricane Milton, Helene misinformation 

 

people are nuts and to think we share this world with them. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/meteorologists-death-threats-hurricane-conspiracies-misinformation

Not to mention FEMA is having to pull out of places in NC bc an armed militia is actively hunting them.    

[FPizz]

14 hours ago, Normandy said:

That’s a good shout.  Tracy is an interesting case study and makes me wonder if it was a bit more intense than realized.  A cyclone that small is essentially producing a tsunami like water rise which has to have tremendous wind to generate it at such a small and localized scale

I'm guessing a lot of storms back then were stronger than they were actually measured.  Now we have tons of flights going in, much better satellite images, tons of chasers, many more stations and way more ways to measure storms as they are happening.  A lot of tech happened in 50 years time to get better measurements.  

[WolfStock1]

13 hours ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Not to mention FEMA is having to pull out of places in NC bc an armed militia is actively hunting them.    

 

Blown WAY out of proportion.   There were no militia "actively hunting" FEMA - it was one guy who made some verbal threats, and he's been arrested.

[Shenanagins1091]

I am not a big fan of people measuring a hurricane season based on dollars. Everything cost more every single year - houses, properties, cars, boats, etc, and then there is just simply more 'stuff' at the coast year over year. Not really surprising the financial cost increases. I live on the coast and I take our environmental concerns very seriously, but just do not like the idea that total cost of storms = worse hurricane season than XYZ year - if that makes sense.

[RamblinRed]

On 10/11/2024 at 12:16 PM, Retrobuc said:

Does any one have a non biased source that documents historical sea levels for Florida towns?  there seems to be no shortage of people wanting to own on barrier islands even with these storms. Id like to see historical sea level heights to pattern what the rise actually is.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-sea-level-rise-risk-cities/

For this analysis, The Post relied on tide gauge data, which reflects the rise in sea level and sinking of land. 

For example, Galveston, TX (Galveston Pier 21 gauge) has seen 6.1 inches of Sea Level rise from 1980 to 2009 and an additional 8.4 inches of sea level rise from 2010-2023. That's 14.5 inches in 44 years with the majority of the rise occuring in the last 14 years as the pace has increased.

The Fort Pulaski guage outside of Savannah, GA has seen 7.3 inches of sea level rise in the last 14 years. (After 3.7 inches of rise in the previous 30 years). 

The most interesting part of their analysis is dividing it up by time. It allows you to see how much the rates of rise are increasing.

Also interesting to note that the article goes into some detail it is not only sea level rise (that is the biggest part), but also the sinking of land.

Finally, it is not consistent across the country, or the world. Some areas are seeing sea level rise at much faster rates than other areas. In the US it is the SE - particularly the Gulf of Mexico and the Southern Atlantic that is seeing the fastest sea level rise. The rates in that area are often 2-3 times faster than in the mid-atlantic or NE.

[gallopinggertie]

52 minutes ago, Shenanagins1091 said:

I am not a big fan of people measuring a hurricane season based on dollars. Everything cost more every single year - houses, properties, cars, boats, etc, and then there is just simply more 'stuff' at the coast year over year. Not really surprising the financial cost increases. I live on the coast and I take our environmental concerns very seriously, but just do not like the idea that total cost of storms = worse hurricane season than XYZ year - if that makes sense.

I’ve seen a list on wiki of normalized costs for hurricanes, I.e. how much damage a hurricane would cause if it hit today. I’m not sure how complete it is though. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Costliest_U.S._Atlantic_hurricanes_by_wealth_normalization

[WolfStock1]

13 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

I’ve seen a list on wiki of normalized costs for hurricanes, I.e. how much damage a hurricane would cause if it hit today. I’m not sure how complete it is though. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Costliest_U.S._Atlantic_hurricanes_by_wealth_normalization

Very interesting.   Would be curious to see the methodology behind it; what "societal conditions" means.   Ideally it would account not only for inflation, but specifically inflation in housing and businesses (generally higher than headline inflation, which is just consumer goods), as well as not only the increasing crowded-ness of coastal areas but also the "luxury" factor of more luxury real estate construction on the coast.    Overall the chart seems about right actually.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

50 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

Very interesting.   Would be curious to see the methodology behind it; what "societal conditions" means.   Ideally it would account not only for inflation, but specifically inflation in housing and businesses (generally higher than headline inflation, which is just consumer goods), as well as not only the increasing crowded-ness of coastal areas but also the "luxury" factor of more luxury real estate construction on the coast.    Overall the chart seems about right actually.

Excellent post. The luxury factor is a big part of why I think the hurricane of 38 should be higher up the list. The hamptons has some of the most expensive real estate on the planet and was literally ground zero. While there were some estates even in 38 the vast majority of the area was farms and sleepy fishing villages. 
Miami speaks for itself. That’s the big “yet” I can certainly think of a much worse case then 26. Think Dorian at peak intensity landfalling right in south beach. 

[gallopinggertie]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Excellent post. The luxury factor is a big part of why I think the hurricane of 38 should be higher up the list. The hamptons has some of the most expensive real estate on the planet and was literally ground zero. While there were some estates even in 38 the vast majority of the area was farms and sleepy fishing villages. 
Miami speaks for itself. That’s the big “yet” I can certainly think of a much worse case then 26. Think Dorian at peak intensity landfalling right in south beach. 

That’s one I’ve thought about, especially if it stalled over Miami like it did over the Bahamas. Another bad scenario would be if Andrew had made landfall 10 or 20 miles north of where it did. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

That’s one I’ve thought about, especially if it stalled over Miami like it did over the Bahamas. Another bad scenario would be if Andrew had made landfall 10 or 20 miles north of where it did. 

Yeah Andrew further north is obviously a disaster of epic proportions, sky scrapers down to the steal beams. But even that isn’t the worst case scenario as Andrew was small and in that case it’s just Miami. The real killer would be an Irma at peak intensity that crushes the entire corridor to Palm Beach. 

 

 

 

[jm1220]

52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah Andrew further north is obviously a disaster of epic proportions, sky scrapers down to the steal beams. But even that isn’t the worst case scenario as Andrew was small and in that case it’s just Miami. The real killer would be an Irma at peak intensity that crushes the entire corridor to Palm Beach. 

 

 

 

Irma was also supposed to make its right turn sooner and hug the coast right up to Cape Canaveral. If it didn’t run into Cuba and made that right turn sooner it would’ve easily been the most destructive hurricane in US history. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Irma was also supposed to make its right turn sooner and hug the coast right up to Cape Canaveral. If it didn’t run into Cuba and made that right turn sooner it would’ve easily been the most destructive hurricane in US history. 

I just have this Irma North of the islands, at 180mph with that massive 60nm eye IR pic stuck in my head. That exact storm going into south Florida is the true national disaster multi generational storm that will one day happen. Hopefully later rather then sooner because it’s going to bankrupt the insurance industry and affect the entire country… (never mind the local suffering)

[Windspeed]

Irma was also supposed to make its right turn sooner and hug the coast right up to Cape Canaveral. If it didn’t run into Cuba and made that right turn sooner it would’ve easily been the most destructive hurricane in US history. 

Dorian was also so close call. A 48-hour change in 590s dm heights prevented a 500+ billion disaster. Hard to imagine a 15nm Category 5 eyewall at MPI landfalling over some of the most expensive real estate in the US, then slowing turning NNW and riding the entire eastern shoreline as a weakened Category 1-2.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Dorian was also so close call. A 48-hour change in 590s dm heights prevented a 500+ billion disaster. Hard to imagine a 15nm Category 5 eyewall at MPI landfalling over some of the most expensive real estate in the US, then slowing turning NNW and riding the entire eastern shoreline as a weakened Category 1-2.

SE FL has been incredibly lucky and is overdue unfortunately.