Hurricane Milton Banter

[dseagull]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There was clearly no need for people on Treasure Island let’s say to prepare for the worst and evacuate. They should’ve just stayed home. We’ve never seen situations in the past where the official track could be off by 30 miles or the intensity forecast is off for any of a multitude of reasons. It was obvious 48 hours out that they and Tampa would be fine and the media/emergency officials were overhyping!!! 

That's not how risk assessment works in emergency planning.   The costs of making an incorrect call like that (in terms of human life,) are not a gamble any coordinator are going to be willing to take.  

 

These individuals are advised by the experts (who may suggest not ordering an evacuation,) but the meterorlogists do not have the final say.   There's a strict protocol that is adhered to, although it may vary from municipality to municipality or from county to county.  

 

Its easy for us to conclude that it was unnecessary or overhyped.   I won't argue with that.   But... you're only looking at it from a narrow perspective, and that's understandable.  So much more is involved, however. 

[Retrobuc]

52 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

I strongly disagree.   There are risks and consequences associated with "preparing".   

Many educated people I know did not understand this storm would begin to dissipate before it made landfall.  Many people prepared for a CAT 5 and that was NEVER in the forecast.   

 

Sometimes reacting causes more problems than sitting quietly. 

There is a big difference between national media coverage and local media coverage.  The local media did a great job explaining that the storm would begin to lose strength as it neared Florida and that tornadoes would be a problem.  The national coverage I watched explained none of that.  From my perspective, the forecasts from the local Orlando region news media were spot on.  They called the heavy rain band that went through my area, the back end winds and east coast storm surge.  If your perspective is national coverage, you did not get the same level of detail, which is to be expected.

[Retrobuc]

12 minutes ago, dseagull said:

That's not how risk assessment works in emergency planning.   The costs of making an incorrect call like that (in terms of human life,) are not a gamble any coordinator are going to be willing to take.  

 

These individuals are advised by the experts (who may suggest not ordering an evacuation,) but the meterorlogists do not have the final say.   There's a strict protocol that is adhered to, although it may vary from municipality to municipality or from county to county.  

 

Its easy for us to conclude that it was unnecessary or overhyped.   I won't argue with that.   But... you're only looking at it from a narrow perspective, and that's understandable.  So much more is involved, however. 

By the same token, we cant have public officials like the Mayor of Tampa saying things like "if you choose to stay you WILL die".  That's sensationalism that makes people tune out.  What happened to the days of stating facts, giving the best information at the time, explain first responders will not be available for rescues and let people decide their course of action.  Hype and sensationalism have caused much of people's distrust with information.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

There is a big difference between national media coverage and local media coverage.  The local media did a great job explaining that the storm would begin to lose strength as it neared Florida and that tornadoes would be a problem.  The national coverage I watched explained none of that.  From my perspective, the forecasts from the local Orlando region news media were spot on.  They called the heavy rain band that went through my area, the back end winds and east coast storm surge.  If your perspective is national coverage, you did not get the same level of detail, which is to be expected.

It was more likely than not to lose strength, sure. Models highlighted the shear and dry air in the eastern Gulf for a few days. But it was also moving over 85+ degree water, and small changes to the jet interaction, steering, dry air etc could’ve made for a much different outcome. Michael in 2018 wasn’t expected to come in as a Cat 5, if I remember right it was supposed to weaken or be a Cat 2, maybe Cat 3. The center of the cone was south of Tampa for a couple days but a couple of northerly wobbles over 48hrs would’ve brought it into Tampa or north. And you have to warn a major metro like Tampa well ahead of time, we all saw the packed highways and stations out of gas. What natural barriers or dunes there were for protection were also lost in Helene. Sure media especially national oversensationalizes all the time, but I totally understood the need to prepare and evacuate for the areas that did. Much better than Clearwater for example not preparing and the wobbles N plus less shear and less weakening happen and they’re now staring down a borderline Cat 5. That was in the window of possibility, fairly unlikely but could’ve caused a massive number of casualties from lack of preparation. Imagine the outcry then? 

[EWR757]

50 minutes ago, dseagull said:

 

But "prepare for the worst, hope for the best" is always a good policy to live by.  Or the 7 Ps... "Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance," in that one should never let their guard down, especially regarding weather.  

 

Again, I'll disagree.  I work in the aviation business where weather observations and forecasts are legally binding.  They determine how much fuel needs to be on board, what contigency plans and airports must be available (if any), what airplane can land or fly a route, what type of airplane can't, etc.  

If aviation prepared for the worst, always...an airplane would never get off the ground.  Risk = 0% is unattainable.  

The big difference in my opinion, is that the decisions the aviation community makes are based on numerical data, a METAR, a TAF, dimensions of a SIGMET, a winds aloft forecast.  Then there are laws that govern the response after the data is received.  There isn't too much subjectivity.    And aviation is incredibly safe and it gets safer over time.

If the message was as the NHC forecast predicted...this will likely go south of TPA, we are forecasting a CAT 3 but that is on the highest end of the intensity guidance, and the hurricane force winds only extend outward of 30 miles from the center...I think many people would have behaved differently.  What they heard is that a CAT 5 is coming, Tampa will be destroyed and the western coastline of Florida will be redrawn forever.  It simply wasn't scientifically accurate or predicted.

Emergency planning has some politics involved and conflicts of interest, unfortunately.  Treating all citizens as equally capable is a mistake.  A Piper Cub and a Boeing 747 get effected by wind differently.  A 30 year old in a multi-million dollar house has less risk than a disabled elderly person in a multi-wide.  Broad, mandated evacuation orders (similar to what happened during COVID with broad lockdowns, etc.) have destructive economic and social implications.

I know a cancer patient to drove north of Orlando "to safety" and slept his car because there were no hotels.  His cancer treatment in Sarasota has been delayed by at least 3 weeks.  "Hope for the best"...whatever.

More science, less politics and ego.

[Retrobuc]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It was more likely than not to lose strength, sure. Models highlighted the shear and dry air in the eastern Gulf for a few days. But it was also moving over 85+ degree water, and small changes to the jet interaction, steering, dry air etc could’ve made for a much different outcome. Michael in 2018 wasn’t expected to come in as a Cat 5, if I remember right it was supposed to weaken or be a Cat 2, maybe Cat 3. The center of the cone was south of Tampa for a couple days but a couple of northerly wobbles over 48hrs would’ve brought it into Tampa or north. And you have to warn a major metro like Tampa well ahead of time, we all saw the packed highways and stations out of gas. What natural barriers or dunes there were for protection were also lost in Helene. Sure media especially national oversensationalizes all the time, but I totally understood the need to prepare and evacuate for the areas that did. Much better than Clearwater for example not preparing and the wobbles N plus less shear and less weakening happen and they’re now staring down a borderline Cat 5. That was in the window of possibility, fairly unlikely but could’ve caused a massive number of casualties from lack of preparation. Imagine the outcry then? 

The local media was clear that you should evacuate if your zone called for that.  I think the local level of info was right on.  if you lived on a barrier island from Cedar Key to Ft Myers and chose not to leave or take precautions, that's on you, not local officials or lack of information.  

[dseagull]

11 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

Again, I'll disagree.  I work in the aviation business where weather observations and forecasts are legally binding.  They determine how much fuel needs to be on board, what contigency plans and airports must be available (if any), what airplane can land or fly a route, what type of airplane can't, etc.  

If aviation prepared for the worst, always...an airplane would never get off the ground.  Risk = 0% is unattainable.  

The big difference in my opinion, is that the decisions the aviation community makes are based on numerical data, a METAR, a TAF, dimensions of a SIGMET, a winds aloft forecast.  Then there are laws that govern the response after the data is received.  There isn't too much subjectivity.    And aviation is incredibly safe and it gets safer over time.

If the message was as the NHC forecast predicted...this will likely go south of TPA, we are forecasting a CAT 3 but that is on the highest end of the intensity guidance, and the hurricane force winds only extend outward of 30 miles from the center...I think many people would have behaved differently.  What they heard is that a CAT 5 is coming, Tampa will be destroyed and the western coastline of Florida will be redrawn forever.  It simply wasn't scientifically accurate or predicted.

Emergency planning has some politics involved and conflicts of interest, unfortunately.  Treating all citizens as equally capable is a mistake.  A Piper Cub and a Boeing 747 get effected by wind differently.  A 30 year old in a multi-million dollar house has less risk than a disabled elderly person in a multi-wide.  Broad, mandated evacuation orders (similar to what happened during COVID with broad lockdowns, etc.) have destructive economic and social implications.

I know a cancer patient to drove north of Orlando "to safety" and slept his car because there were no hotels.  His cancer treatment in Sarasota has been delayed by at least 3 weeks.  "Hope for the best"...whatever.

More science, less politics and ego.

Fair enough.  I agree with most of that.  Especially the politics and ego. 

[Richie]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Turns out I was right that if Milton made landfall south of TB as a weakening hurricane, FL would do just fine...and they are. 

Maybe stop making everything a worst case scenario because 99% of the time it's not that. 

But for much of its lifecycle, it plausibly could have gone north of TB and didn't have to weaken upon landfall. So what is the point of making calls like that well ahead of when they can't definitively be made?

[NoCORH4L]

It was never going north of TB, let's be serious.

[Retrobuc]

Just now, NoCORH4L said:

It was never going north of TB, let's be serious.

Only folks on this chat board were hyping north of Tampa

[NoCORH4L]

The media kept saying "CAT 5 hurricane headed to Florida", which was true but disingenuous. 

[Richie]

31 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

It was never going north of TB, let's be serious.

It feels like Monday morning quarterbacking to say that that was never a possibility. The storm was designated as an invest on October 4, named on October 5, and landfall was projected to be four days later. Evacuations plans and general preparations needed to be made almost immediately. The rare trajectory of this storm and the favorable conditions for development merited an overly cautious approach because the worst-case scenario was at one time relatively plausible. A metropolitan area as large as Tampa Bay can't afford to wait until there is clear model consensus.

[RamblinRed]

My wife's best friend has a home on Little Gasparilla Island that she shared with her sister. That home is now part of the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing left are the pylons the house was on.

It was the third house from the beach. The two in front of it were destroyed by Helene and then their house was destroyed by Milton. There is still alot of loss from this hurricane and give the NHC credit for doing an incredible job with all its forecasting for this one.

On the main thread they were discussing potential landfall at St. Pete as late as 4 pm that afternoon. It is only then that Milton started to take the hard right turn. If it had taken the turn 1-2 hours later we would have had a much worse story.

[jm1220]

57 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

It was never going north of TB, let's be serious.

N of Tampa wasn’t taken out of the probability cone until about 24 hours before landfall. In a large metro people need to prepare 48-72 hours in advance. We saw the late shifts with Helene and numerous other storms in the last 5 years or so. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:

My wife's best friend has a home on Little Gasparilla Island that she shared with her sister. That home is now part of the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing left are the pylons the house was on.

It was the third house from the beach. The two in front of it were destroyed by Helene and then their house was destroyed by Milton. There is still alot of loss from this hurricane and give the NHC credit for doing an incredible job with all its forecasting for this one.

On the main thread they were discussing potential landfall at St. Pete as late as 4 pm that afternoon. It is only then that Milton started to take the hard right turn. If it had taken the turn 1-2 hours later we would have had a much worse story.

It’s at the point in some of that area from Ft Myers north to near Sarasota where you have to ask whether it’s worth it to rebuild. 5 hurricane hits either direct or close enough for significant damage in the last 3 years-Ian, Idalia, Debby, Helene and now Milton. I have no idea how many hoops you’ll have to jump through or deep your wallet has to be to get flood/hurricane insurance there soon. You can build better and more resilient for wind, that doesn’t help with water unless your home is high enough above sea level or you spend probably tens of billions on mitigation like seawalls, which climate change will render moot anyway because of rising sea levels. 

[gallopinggertie]

1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:

My wife's best friend has a home on Little Gasparilla Island that she shared with her sister. That home is now part of the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing left are the pylons the house was on.

It was the third house from the beach. The two in front of it were destroyed by Helene and then their house was destroyed by Milton. There is still alot of loss from this hurricane and give the NHC credit for doing an incredible job with all its forecasting for this one.

On the main thread they were discussing potential landfall at St. Pete as late as 4 pm that afternoon. It is only then that Milton started to take the hard right turn. If it had taken the turn 1-2 hours later we would have had a much worse story.

There is definitely a lot of loss. I think we will see a final damage tally of tens of billions of dollars from this one (the first preliminary estimate I saw was 30-50 billion, though it seems too early to pin down an exact number). Whereas the worst-case scenario I’m sure would have been well north of $100 billion. It’s wild how these last-minute wobbles and timing issues have such outsize effects on people’s lives and livelihoods. 

[Retrobuc]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s at the point in some of that area from Ft Myers north to near Sarasota where you have to ask whether it’s worth it to rebuild. 5 hurricane hits either direct or close enough for significant damage in the last 3 years-Ian, Idalia, Debby, Helene and now Milton. I have no idea how many hoops you’ll have to jump through or deep your wallet has to be to get flood/hurricane insurance there soon. You can build better and more resilient for wind, that doesn’t help with water unless your home is high enough above sea level or you spend probably tens of billions on mitigation like seawalls, which climate change will render moot anyway because of rising sea levels. 

Does any one have a non biased source that documents historical sea levels for Florida towns?  there seems to be no shortage of people wanting to own on barrier islands even with these storms. Id like to see historical sea level heights to pattern what the rise actually is.  

[Rjay]

Lots of jackasses in this thread 

[JACKASS]

24 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lots of jackasses in this thread 

Sorry

[Hotair]

US Mets face death threats after hurricane Milton, Helene misinformation 

 

people are nuts and to think we share this world with them. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/meteorologists-death-threats-hurricane-conspiracies-misinformation

[gallopinggertie]

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

US Mets face death threats after hurricane Milton, Helene misinformation 

 

people are nuts and to think we share this world with them. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/meteorologists-death-threats-hurricane-conspiracies-misinformation

Idiocracy.

[Retrobuc]

27 minutes ago, Hotair said:

US Mets face death threats after hurricane Milton, Helene misinformation 

 

people are nuts and to think we share this world with them. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/meteorologists-death-threats-hurricane-conspiracies-misinformation

Its not like the government has never tried to manipulate the weather...

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/almost-science-fiction-hurricane-modification-and-project-stormfury

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

Its not like the government has never tried to manipulate the weather...

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/almost-science-fiction-hurricane-modification-and-project-stormfury

 This is well known. The first one that was seeded was one in 1947 that was moving NE OTS, meaning a seemingly safe one to seed. However, shortly afterward, it turned sharply (135 degrees to a westerly heading) and subsequently hit Savannah. There’s the possibility that the seeding weakened it enough to lower the mean steering level, which conceivably could have helped lead to more influence from a high to the north. I believe that that sharp turn and subsequent landfall lead to a stoppage of that program.

 But I feel that bringing up these past experiments now is a red herring because they’re not occurring now. Marjorie T. Greene lied about this for pure political purposes, of course. She decided to just make up that “they” (meaning Democrats) were controlling Helene. The best thing would be for the media to ignore her.

[purduewx80]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-33305-w
 

[Normandy]

48 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said:

Idiocracy.

This.  It’s so apparent

[gallopinggertie]

3 minutes ago, Normandy said:

This.  It’s so apparent

I post on a certain other regional weather forum, and some of the people there don’t even believe climate change is real. One of them said these conspiracy theories are the fault of climate scientists. Absolutely unhinged 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This is well known. The first one that was seeded was one in 1947 that was moving NE OTS, meaning a seemingly safe one to seed. However, shortly afterward, it turned sharply (135 degrees to a westerly heading) and subsequently hit Savannah. There’s the possibility that the seeding weakened it enough to lower the mean steering level, which conceivably could have helped lead to more influence from a high to the north. I believe that that sharp turn and subsequent landfall lead to a stoppage of that program.

 But I feel that bringing up these past experiments now is a red herring because they’re not occurring now. Marjorie T. Greene lied about this for pure political purposes, of course. She decided to just make up that “they” (meaning Democrats) were controlling Helene. The best thing would be for the media to ignore her.

The days after a disaster like this are some of the scariest and most uncertain in people’s lives and it’s…. despicable that con artists online and in the media out to monetize it somehow and scumbag politicians like MTG and other “conservatives” use it to help themselves politically (and of course drive donations and media appearances for themselves). It’s a feedback loop grift between social media for attention, influencers who want views, media that want ad dollars and ratings, and “conservative” politicians who want all of the above and votes. I can’t imagine what kind of a lowlife scumbag you have to be to threaten FEMA aid workers or meteorologists who are trying to help people through times like these. 

[Retrobuc]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This is well known. The first one that was seeded was one in 1947 that was moving NE OTS, meaning a seemingly safe one to seed. However, shortly afterward, it turned sharply (135 degrees to a westerly heading) and subsequently hit Savannah. There’s the possibility that the seeding weakened it enough to lower the mean steering level, which conceivably could have helped lead to more influence from a high to the north. I believe that that sharp turn and subsequent landfall lead to a stoppage of that program.

 But I feel that bringing up these past experiments now is a red herring because they’re not occurring now. Marjorie T. Greene lied about this for pure political purposes, of course. She decided to just make up that “they” (meaning Democrats) were controlling Helene. The best thing would be for the media to ignore her.

You would never know if experiments like this were going on now anyway.  I'm not saying the government is purposely trying to send storms and injure people, that's crazy.  However, it is equally as crazy to think these types of programs are not going on regularly and sometimes go awry, like the hurricane seeding did.  Ask yourself how many things labeled conspiracy theories since 2020/Covid have actually been proven to have a high likelihood of being true or outright true?

[Hotair]

26 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

You would never know if experiments like this were going on now anyway.  I'm not saying the government is purposely trying to send storms and injure people, that's crazy.  However, it is equally as crazy to think these types of programs are not going on regularly and sometimes go awry, like the hurricane seeding did.  Ask yourself how many things labeled conspiracy theories since 2020/Covid have actually been proven to have a high likelihood of being true or outright true?

Agree but if it’s a congressional representative or ex president suggesting this and who apparently pretends to have access to this info, then it is incumbent on them to show their evidence or else stfu.  

[jburns]

2 hours ago, Hotair said:

US Mets face death threats after hurricane Milton, Helene misinformation 

 

people are nuts and to think we share this world with them. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/11/meteorologists-death-threats-hurricane-conspiracies-misinformation

 

2 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

Idiocracy.

 

1 hour ago, Retrobuc said:

Its not like the government has never tried to manipulate the weather...

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/almost-science-fiction-hurricane-modification-and-project-stormfury

Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner!!!