Hurricane Milton Banter

[gymengineer]

This banter thread and the main thread are indistinguishable at the moment. It’s always the case the morning after a hurricane landfall that the vacuum of information leads to lots of guess posts. What’s most amusing is the 10’ above normal water level trace near Sarasota, with Helene’s much lower height visible, juxtaposed to these confident posts that the storm surge underperformed. 

 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The shore was the place to be in so many states. But with rising sea levels, powerful storm frequency increasing, people are going to be fleeing those areas in the coming years. Especially from those places that are literally built on the beach on stilts.

TN is another place New Yorkers are flocking to these days lol. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

This banter thread and the main thread are indistinguishable at the moment. It’s always the case the morning after a hurricane landfall that the vacuum of information leads to lots of guess posts. What’s most amusing is the 10’ above normal water level trace near Sarasota, with Helene’s much lower height visible, juxtaposed to these confident posts that the storm surge underperformed. 

 

It’s always a guessing game and speculation until we see the footage and hear the stories. There are lots of local effects with the surge also such as in these smaller inlets and canals that the water gets funneled into. It’s very common where I live in any type of coastal storm much less the bigger ones. 

[FPizz]

10 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

That is insane. How does she afford that?

It is a house on a small exclusive island, so its high no matter how close to the beach you are.  

 

[NoCORH4L]

19 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

That is insane. How does she afford that?

She's rich?

[NoCORH4L]

All barrier islands should be left to nature and have public access to all. No rebuilding.

[dan11295]

Obviously we don't have a full scope of damage yet. While the 10-15' surge did not materialize for Tampa Bay, this was still a category 3 impacting a lot of populated real estate. 

[NeonPeon]

20 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

This banter thread and the main thread are indistinguishable at the moment. It’s always the case the morning after a hurricane landfall that the vacuum of information leads to lots of guess posts. What’s most amusing is the 10’ above normal water level trace near Sarasota, with Helene’s much lower height visible, juxtaposed to these confident posts that the storm surge underperformed. 

 

You can compare the forecast surge to the reports we do have and draw your own conclusions without being obsessed with overperformance/underperformance or somehow emotionally involved. Surge is an interesting thing to discuss because it doesn't have a linear relationship with storm strength and has many confounding variables including very granular detail with regard to final landfall track, the tide, topography of bays etc. etc. There had been a prevalent thought that this storm would punch above its weight surge wise due to its antecedent strength. That doesn't seem to be the case, in that the really damaging worst case surge we see is is mainly confined to the southern side of the core of the storm, which was afterall quite a small area relative to other hurricanes, but there are lots of details to this. For instance, the breadth of its surge at the lower end is in keeping with the forecast, with areas like Naples and even further south getting surges in line with forecast. The higher end of the forecast also seems to have verified, but in a narrower band.

There's also the risk management side to the forecast in terms of messaging. Forecasters became increasingly confident that landfall north of tampa bay wasn't going to occur, but the risk was massive. Narrow or not, if the worst surge was someplace else, just a little further south in Charlotte Harbor, or a little further north in Tampa Bay, and you see worse effects and they had to be advertised.

The other thing occurring is it's pretty natural to make comparisons between this and the previous hurricane, especially in areas where there are similar effects despite completely different tracks. Size matters.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

You can compare the forecast surge to the reports we do have and draw your own conclusions without being obsessed with overperformance/underperformance or somehow emotionally involved. Surge is an interesting thing to discuss because it doesn't have a linear relationship with storm strength and has many confounding variables including very granular detail with regard to final landfall track, the tide, topography of bays etc. etc. There had been a prevalent thought that this storm would punch above its weight surge wise due to its antecedent strength. That doesn't seem to be the case, in that the really damaging worst case surge we see is is mainly confined to the southern side of the core of the storm, which was afterall quite a small area relative to other hurricanes, but there are lots of details to this. For instance, the breadth of its surge at the lower end is in keeping with the forecast, with areas like Naples and even further south getting surges in line with forecast. The higher end of the forecast also seems to have verified, but in a narrower band.

There's also the risk management side to the forecast in terms of messaging. Forecasters became increasingly confident that landfall north of tampa bay wasn't going to occur, but the risk was massive. Narrow or not, if the worst surge was someplace else, just a little further south in Charlotte Harbor, or a little further north in Tampa Bay, and you see worse effects and they had to be advertised.

The other thing occurring is it's pretty natural to make comparisons between this and the previous hurricane, especially in areas where there are similar effects despite completely different tracks. Size matters.

IKE is a good measure for how serious the surge might be over a wide area since it takes into the account the entire area affected by strong winds, which is what moves more or less water. As IKE increases usually more water is being moved even if the max sustained winds might be decreasing. Larger storms move much more water, which then gets funneled into bays and harbors. Maybe Milton didn’t have time to take advantage of a larger size area of strong winds to build a surge but we’ll find out soon. 

[gymengineer]

6 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

You can compare the forecast surge to the reports we do have and draw your own conclusions without being obsessed with overperformance/underperformance or somehow emotionally involved. Surge is an interesting thing to discuss because it doesn't have a linear relationship with storm strength and has many confounding variables including very granular detail with regard to final landfall track, the tide, topography of bays etc. etc. There had been a prevalent thought that this storm would punch above its weight surge wise due to its antecedent strength. That doesn't seem to be the case, in that the really damaging worst case surge we see is is mainly confined to the southern side of the core of the storm, which was afterall quite a small area relative to other hurricanes, but there are lots of details to this. For instance, the breadth of its surge at the lower end is in keeping with the forecast, with areas like Naples and even further south getting surges in line with forecast. The higher end of the forecast also seems to have verified, but in a narrower band.

There's also the risk management side to the forecast in terms of messaging. Forecasters became increasingly confident that landfall north of tampa bay wasn't going to occur, but the risk was massive. Narrow or not, if the worst surge was someplace else, just a little further south in Charlotte Harbor, or a little further north in Tampa Bay, and you see worse effects and they had to be advertised.

The other thing occurring is it's pretty natural to make comparisons between this and the previous hurricane, especially in areas where there are similar effects despite completely different tracks. Size matters.

Agreed on the complexities of storm surge. Just look at Ivan and Katrina for examples of very high west of landfall storm surges, while many other hurricanes do not have appreciable storm surges in that direction. Or Florence's Neuce River surge outperforming, or Dorian's surge on the backside of Hatteras. The storm surge forecasts are still the "weakest" part of the NHC products because of all the variables. 

I also want to note that easily verifiable facts are available to us this morning. Milton's storm surge was higher at both Ft. Myers and Naples than Helene's- significantly higher at Naples. Posts in the main thread seem to be speaking about the Tampa area only when comparing to Helene. 

 

[NeonPeon]

9 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Agreed on the complexities of storm surge. Just look at Ivan and Katrina for examples of very high west of landfall storm surges, while many other hurricanes do not have appreciable storm surges in that direction. Or Florence's Neuce River surge outperforming, or Dorian's surge on the backside of Hatteras. The storm surge forecasts are still the "weakest" part of the NHC products because of all the variables. 

I also want to note that easily verifiable facts are available to us this morning. Milton's storm surge was higher at both Ft. Myers and Naples than Helene's- significantly higher at Naples. Posts in the main thread seem to be speaking about the Tampa area only when comparing to Helene. 

 

Fort Myers they were almost identical. Naples a foot higher, yes. I think that reflects the fact that the hurricane at a lower latitude was stronger, and that in this case anyway, the surge was reactive to the immediate intensity. When I was watching Naples yesterday, I thought we'd see much more surge than Helene in the area between Bonita Beach and Englewood, say. I certainly thought that Fort Myers would be significantly higher than Helene, and it was basically the same. Obviously that narrow band that got the worst onshore wind got whacked, and that never happened with Helene as it was miles away.

I think the fact that Milton was small also means that the direction of wave travel wasn't the same, nor for as long a period of time. You can see that in the fact that the surges recorded for Helene are broader, instead of spikes you have hills.

[NeffsvilleWx]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

My wife's mom has a little house (maybe 1200 SF?) well away from the beach on Marco Island, and the HO insurance is $16,000 per year!

 

Meanwhile, I'm paying $2500/yr for a home twice the size,  2 miles inland on the Space coast. Home build after 2000, wind mitigation discounts fully maximized, and not in a flood zone. That $2500 includes the flood insurance we carry just in case.

There's a lot of nuance to Florida insurance that is often omitted from conversation. Location and age of structure are 2 of the big ones.

[Bubbler86]

23 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

Meanwhile, I'm paying $2500/yr for a home twice the size,  2 miles inland on the Space coast. Home build after 2000, wind mitigation discounts fully maximized, and not in a flood zone. That $2500 includes the flood insurance we carry just in case.

There's a lot of nuance to Florida insurance that is often omitted from conversation. Location and age of structure are 2 of the big ones.

People in Ocala with as new homes, 2000-2010 types,  are paying twice that per year.  I do not know anyone there paying less than 4K for a standard 1800 Sq foot house.    Some of the issue is home values as many of their homes are 300-400K (not that much but double what they were 10 years ago) 

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

With all the damage done by Milton, will anyone be able to get insurance in Florida now? Companies were already pulling out of large swaths of the state due to supposed inability to make a profit in them, leaving the state as the insurer of last resort. Those premiums will be astronomical.

Good question, the insurance company my wife works for cut off Florida a few years ago, I'm sure more will follow now.

[NeffsvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

People in Ocala with as new homes are paying twice that per year.  I do not know anyone there paying less than 4K for a standard 1800 Sq foot house. 

 

We're paying $2620.42 per year for almost $500k of coverage with State Farm, on a home with current market value of around $700k.

 

Any thoughts about why we're paying so much less than what just about everyone "on the internet" says they pay?

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

We're paying $2620.42 per year for almost $500k of coverage.

Yea, that is extremely cheap for Florida.  I moved from there in 2018 and was paying almost that for a 2100 Sq foot house south of Ocala and prices have doubled since then in that area.    I have seen cheaper prices for homes built since 2020.    

[NeffsvilleWx]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, that is extremely cheap for Florida.  I moved from there in 2018 and was paying almost that for a 2100 Sq foot house south of Ocala and prices have doubled since then in that area.    I have seen cheaper prices for homes built since 2020.    

 

Additionally, FMV of home is currently about $700k with assessed value of $550k. If insurance is so big of an issue for literally everyone in the state as the internet would have you believe, why is our insurance so cheap?

 

(note: I'm not downplaying the insurance crisis in the state. I'm just trying to figure out why ours is so much cheaper than what's typically reported).

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

Additionally, FMV of home is currently about $700k with assessed value of $550k. If insurance is so big of an issue for literally everyone in the state as the internet would have you believe, why is our insurance so cheap?

My current insurance for a replacement value of ~ 500K is ~ $500 a year (not in Florida.)  That large difference and the rapid increases from 15 years ago are probably the issues most have whether insurance is 2K, 3K or 4K.  Between taxes and insurance, the penalty for living in Florida is having a "mortgage" in perpetuality even when the note is paid off.  

[NeffsvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My current insurance for a replacement value of ~ 500K is ~ $500 a year (not in Florida.)  That large difference and the rapid increases from 15 years ago are probably the issues most have whether insurance is 2K, 3K or 4K.  Between taxes and insurance, the penalty for living in Florida is having a "mortgage" in perpetuality even when the note is paid off.  

 

I'm paying about double here in FL compared to what I was paying for a home with half the value in PA. Same insurance company.

Property taxes were higher in PA. And here, my assessed value is not going to change significantly until I sell the home thanks to homestead exemption.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, gymengineer said:

Agreed on the complexities of storm surge. Just look at Ivan and Katrina for examples of very high west of landfall storm surges, while many other hurricanes do not have appreciable storm surges in that direction. Or Florence's Neuce River surge outperforming, or Dorian's surge on the backside of Hatteras. The storm surge forecasts are still the "weakest" part of the NHC products because of all the variables. 

I also want to note that easily verifiable facts are available to us this morning. Milton's storm surge was higher at both Ft. Myers and Naples than Helene's- significantly higher at Naples. Posts in the main thread seem to be speaking about the Tampa area only when comparing to Helene. 

 

Another major factor is the size and depth of the continental shelf. Also the angle of the coast and direction of landfall. 

[Bubbler86]

37 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

I'm paying about double here in FL compared to what I was paying for a home with half the value in PA. Same insurance company.

Property taxes were higher in PA. And here, my assessed value is not going to change significantly until I sell the home thanks to homestead exemption.

Yea, property taxes are a big difference per municipality but here in PA my combined total is under 3K for taxes and insurance while in Florida, the former Ocala House, it is over 7K now.  I have a larger house here.  No beach within 1.5 hours though.   7K a year is close to a healthy $600 a month. 

[Pityflakes]

3 hours ago, NeonPeon said:

You can compare the forecast surge to the reports we do have and draw your own conclusions without being obsessed with overperformance/underperformance or somehow emotionally involved. Surge is an interesting thing to discuss because it doesn't have a linear relationship with storm strength and has many confounding variables including very granular detail with regard to final landfall track, the tide, topography of bays etc. etc. There had been a prevalent thought that this storm would punch above its weight surge wise due to its antecedent strength. That doesn't seem to be the case, in that the really damaging worst case surge we see is is mainly confined to the southern side of the core of the storm, which was afterall quite a small area relative to other hurricanes, but there are lots of details to this. For instance, the breadth of its surge at the lower end is in keeping with the forecast, with areas like Naples and even further south getting surges in line with forecast. The higher end of the forecast also seems to have verified, but in a narrower band.

There's also the risk management side to the forecast in terms of messaging. Forecasters became increasingly confident that landfall north of tampa bay wasn't going to occur, but the risk was massive. Narrow or not, if the worst surge was someplace else, just a little further south in Charlotte Harbor, or a little further north in Tampa Bay, and you see worse effects and they had to be advertised.

The other thing occurring is it's pretty natural to make comparisons between this and the previous hurricane, especially in areas where there are similar effects despite completely different tracks. Size matters.

This.  

Can we please shelve the "surge is baked in because it used to be a Cat 5" myth.  Which as far as I can tell isn't based on anything other than people invoking Katrina.  Seems like surge is actually way more complicated and difficult to predict, but appears much more sensitive to topography, fetch, wind direction and duration, etc.  Wind speed of course matters (an actual 140/150 mph cane at landfall is going to push a lot of water, but those extreme impacts are localized to the actual eye wall), but "historical" wind speed/pressure of a storm is less relevant.  

 

ETA: I'm not downplaying the impact of Milton or suggesting it was a "bust" somehow.  But rather I'm suggesting that the surge impacts played out exactly like one would expect from a robust Cat 2/3 given approach angle and topography.  

[lilj4425]

4 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

With all the damage done by Milton, will anyone be able to get insurance in Florida now? Companies were already pulling out of large swaths of the state due to supposed inability to make a profit in them, leaving the state as the insurer of last resort. Those premiums will be astronomical.

Oh goodie. They’re all now gonna move here to South Carolina. I can’t wait. 

[Wannabehippie]

22 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Oh goodie. They’re all now gonna move here to South Carolina. I can’t wait. 

Well I am sure some will move to NC, and Georgia as well.

 

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

We're paying $2620.42 per year for almost $500k of coverage with State Farm, on a home with current market value of around $700k.

 

Any thoughts about why we're paying so much less than what just about everyone "on the internet" says they pay?

Are you away from the water? That is a huge factor in the premiums. Right now they are jacking them up in places that are right on the water, and are in major flood zones from storm surges.
 

[Wannabehippie]

I wonder where the Tampa Bay Rays will play next season. Their ballpark looks unplayable, and I can't imagine replacing the roof will be cheap or fast, especially when they are supposed to move in to a new stadium in a few years. Can they play at the Trop without the roof?

[BlizzardNole]

4 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

That is insane. How does she afford that?

(MIL paying $16,000 per year to insure small home on Marco Island).  It's gotten to be too much and she is getting ready to sell.  She's looking at condos.  We'll see how the selling goes given the insurance costs.

[lilj4425]

Did Lt. Dan survive?

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, Pityflakes said:

This.  

Can we please shelve the "surge is baked in because it used to be a Cat 5" myth.  Which as far as I can tell isn't based on anything other than people invoking Katrina.  Seems like surge is actually way more complicated and difficult to predict, but appears much more sensitive to topography, fetch, wind direction and duration, etc.  Wind speed of course matters (an actual 140/150 mph cane at landfall is going to push a lot of water, but those extreme impacts are localized to the actual eye wall), but "historical" wind speed/pressure of a storm is less relevant.  

 

ETA: I'm not downplaying the impact of Milton or suggesting it was a "bust" somehow.  But rather I'm suggesting that the surge impacts played out exactly like one would expect from a robust Cat 2/3 given approach angle and topography.  

I agree with most of what you said, but I think I might respectfully disagree in part.

I think that to an extent the higher surge was baked in. The expanse of it I think ended up lower geographically because the RMW ended up smaller and the specific landfall location to a lesser extent. There are examples of former upper echelon hurricanes bringing tremendous surge—Katrina obviously, but I think Ike and Opal are other examples. 

At its peak, here was the NHC surge forecast 

 

Of course the northern extent of this won’t verify but that’s because of landfall location and size. At this point, the NHC essentially had a Tampa hit:

 

The NHC expects to find 9-13’ in the peak surge zone, verifying their peak surge forecast. I don’t like people speaking in absolutes in tropical, but I do think it was clear this was going to be one of the worst surge events for the west coast of Florida and in some spots that forecast looks to verify. 
 

Maybe we’re saying the same thing though lol

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder where the Tampa Bay Rays will play next season. Their ballpark looks unplayable, and I can't imagine replacing the roof will be cheap or fast, especially when they are supposed to move in to a new stadium in a few years. Can they play at the Trop without the roof?

It's a fabric roof - structure looked fine from video (catwalks still there even). If not, Oakland has a stadium they can use.