bobbutts Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 7 minutes ago, Pityflakes said: Yikes. I think this likely exceeds Charlie in the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area. May actually be the zone of highest realized surge. It wouldn't take much to exceed Charley in surge for that area. It wasn't a factor. Milton is a lock to exceed the surge and unlikely reach the same type of wind damage in Port C/PG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: Ugggh..Didn’t want to hear that. They just flat out refuse to go. It’s inexplicable Sorry to hear that. Are they too young to remember Katrina? Maybe have them read up on that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 8 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: I 100% get this, unfortunately there isn’t much Met or more helpful comments in this thread, so when trying to find out if weakening or southern trends are going to affect certain areas. Like I was trying to ask it gets removed over there (which in storm mode again I understand) but it goes unanswered over here and so your kinda stuck not knowing where to ask the questions or if you ask them they just go unanswered which also sucks. . These answers are most often there if you read what’s been posted. If a trend is happening it will be discussed. I understand that not everyone has model/map knowledge. AMWX has always been a place where people can learn, ask questions and have them explained. This can not happen during a storm. Doesn’t matter if it’s a hurricane, blizzard, ice storm, flooding, etc. There are way too many people posting at the same time and only so many green tags to control the valuable information that everyone needs to see. We do our best and unfortunately there’s only so much we can do when it’s go time for any storm system. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Saw a post earlier in the main thread complaining about the government "hype" and implying a conspiracy theory about posts getting deleted. Glad they cleaned it up. You would think a weather forum of all places would be free from that idiotic crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Thoughts with everyone down in the affected areas. As an NWS met (WFO Chicago), it always baffles me when I see coastal offices issuing special marine warnings during hurricane warnings. It's a waste of resources. Hoping at some point for a policy change to stop the silliness. We at the WFOs need to be focusing on tornado and flash flood warnings on land, and constant flow of information to emergency/public safety partners and the public via NWSChat and social media, not spending time issuing marine warnings for fishes. Just put waterspouts in the marine hurricane warning statements and in the gridded forecasts, and be done with it. If there's any boats out in a hurricane warning, that's on them. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 These guys having the time of their life so far but you can see standing water already starting to form and we are barely getting started. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martytdx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 9 hours ago, Nibor said: ~14 hours That's a huge precursor event happening to the northeast of the main circulation. The rainfall is going to certainly increase overall impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said: Ugggh..Didn’t want to hear that. They just flat out refuse to go. It’s inexplicable If they get a prolonged SW wind that drives water into Charlotte Harbor, yep-it’ll be bad for Punta Gorda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Anyone have any decent livestreams for landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 57 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: These guys having the time of their life so far but you can see standing water already starting to form and we are barely getting started. . Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Where are you located? Lutz, which is about 20-25 miles North of the Bayshore area in Tampa and 20-25 miles East of US 19/New Port Richey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I can't speak to all the individual choices that go into not evacuating, but in the case of my in-laws (on a canal in Port Charlotte), it is a toxic stew of nihilism/fatalism, MAGA-disenchantment with "experts" and just bad info or rationalizing based on past experience. My MIL last night said "It's a wait and see game as to where it makes landfall. Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us because a lot less surge if that happens." With Helene, the amount of people (at least per social media) in Appalachia who were "not expecting" to be impacted that way was an alarm bell that says how people are getting critical information is getting distorted by cord cutting and reliance on social media. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Lutz, which is about 20-25 miles North of the Bayshore area in Tampa and 20-25 miles East of US 19/New Port Richey. I have family a little further north in Spring Hill and watching some areas around Tampa for a friend with family there. Obviously no met but if I can be helpful just tag me in here and I’ll answer if I can. Good luck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Peeps in main thread acting like this thing is falling apart to a CAT1 again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrobuc Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Many of the local mets in Orlando are calling for landfall near Sarasota or south and is moving faster than has been forecasted. Landfall around 10pm, off the coast by noon tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrobuc Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, NoCORH4L said: Peeps in main thread acting like this thing is falling apart to a CAT1 again I havent seen any of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 SAVE THE MANATEES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 34 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If they get a prolonged SW wind that drives water into Charlotte Harbor, yep-it’ll be bad for Punta Gorda. I have a bad feeling they’re going to be up for a Darwin Award when this is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 18 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Anyone have any decent livestreams Try this... https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/bay-news-9-cameras#St_Petersburg_Albert_Whitted_Airport-WX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, goctican said: Not sure on the dynamics of your comment, but if I understand you correctly... Ruskin and Riverview have built up much more in recent years but still less populated than St Pete and Clearwater. However, Terra Ceia and Cockroach Bay are large preserves on the southern side of the Bay. Still homes there's but those two take up a lot of space. I know this is a more serious post, but forgive me I got a little stuck on this: There's a place called Cockroach Bay? Lololol That is funny--hey they oughta be able to survive anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 15 minutes ago, hooralph said: I can't speak to all the individual choices that go into not evacuating, but in the case of my in-laws (on a canal in Port Charlotte), it is a toxic stew of nihilism/fatalism, MAGA-disenchantment with "experts" and just bad info or rationalizing based on past experience. My MIL last night said "It's a wait and see game as to where it makes landfall. Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us because a lot less surge if that happens." With Helene, the amount of people (at least per social media) in Appalachia who were "not expecting" to be impacted that way was an alarm bell that says how people are getting critical information is getting distorted by cord cutting and reliance on social media. What evac zone? I'm assuming A... which is going to be a very tragic decision if so, most likely. Not trying to doom out hype. They may still have an hour to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 SAVE THE FLAMINGOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: I have friends in Punta Gorda who stubbornly refuse to evacuate. I really hope they avoid the worst of this. Right on the water in a two story apartment building The daughter of this man, who died during Hurricane Ian because he wouldn't leave Fort Myers beach, has suggested people share his last Facebook post to convince people to leave. https://www.facebook.com/mitch.pacyna/posts/pfbid0k65c5F5Gk4YA9hvhJGKSxT96Y8N7ZFUcxVACyJgFhSsrdmfNVgGtKYgMye4GXEmNl 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tornado's really starting to pop up now, up to 5 Warnings and 1 verified on the ground. That line just now coming onshore around Naples is pretty nasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 21 minutes ago, hooralph said: I can't speak to all the individual choices that go into not evacuating, but in the case of my in-laws (on a canal in Port Charlotte), it is a toxic stew of nihilism/fatalism, MAGA-disenchantment with "experts" and just bad info or rationalizing based on past experience. My MIL last night said "It's a wait and see game as to where it makes landfall. Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us because a lot less surge if that happens." With Helene, the amount of people (at least per social media) in Appalachia who were "not expecting" to be impacted that way was an alarm bell that says how people are getting critical information is getting distorted by cord cutting and reliance on social media. 4 minutes ago, goctican said: What evac zone? I'm assuming A... which is going to be a very tragic decision if so, most likely. Not trying to doom out hype. They may still have an hour to go. I've been calling it Toxic Positivity and Confirmation Bias. Seen it for decades everywhere from CA to FL to NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 17 minutes ago, goctican said: What evac zone? I'm assuming A... which is going to be a very tragic decision if so, most likely. Not trying to doom out hype. They may still have an hour to go. Oh they are squarely in A. Again, right on the water. This is the map of their location (red dot) with a 6' surge, which supports their experience that they are on "higher ground" as 4-5' surges have not reached them. At 7 feet their house is wet and it's off to the roof from there... "Best case" scenario is it's "only" an 8' surge and they only take on about a foot of water but damage to their entire area will be substantial. Obviously a 12' surge will render the entire area uninhabitable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I'm pretty sure its probably not the most reliable resource but just looking at the weather.com hourly forecast. For the last 24+ hours we have had a 5-6 hour period with winds 50-60 MPH. Now there isn't a single hour with winds even as high as 40. This is a huge change in terms of wind effects. I don't know how reliable/accurate those are but its a pretty significant change to the untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 12 minutes ago, hooralph said: Oh they are squarely in A. Again, right on the water. This is the map of their location (red dot) with a 6' surge, which supports their experience that they are on "higher ground" as 4-5' surges have not reached them. At 7 feet their house is wet and it's off to the roof from there... "Best case" scenario is it's "only" an 8' surge and they only take on about a foot of water but damage to their entire area will be substantial. Obviously a 12' surge will render the entire area uninhabitable. Share a couple surge videos from Sanibel and Ian with them. People on second floors trying to escape water if I remember right. Might get them to go. But that window is rapidly closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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