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Hurricane Milton Banter


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6 minutes ago, esullivan said:

In main thread someone said Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ -forecast to go to 70.  For non pros - what do these numbers mean in terms or surge?

It's essentially a measure of the hurricane's overall power which is a factor of both its wind speed/central pressure and overall size. So its IKE can still go up as the minimum central pressure does. The surge is influenced by both factors size and wind speed/min central pressure as well, so even if Milton weakens in terms of wind/pressure but expands in size, the IKE can go up and the surge may be worse since more water is being moved overall. If it gets funneled into a bay or inlets it's made even worse.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's essentially a measure of the hurricane's overall power which is a factor of both its wind speed/central pressure and overall size. So its IKE can still go up as the minimum central pressure does. The surge is influenced by both factors size and wind speed/min central pressure as well, so even if Milton weakens in terms of wind/pressure but expands in size, the IKE can go up and the surge may be worse since more water is being moved overall. If it gets funneled into a bay or inlets it's made even worse.

The way I think of it for example, is...

Hurricane Ike was so bad because it had tremendous IKE.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's essentially a measure of the hurricane's overall power which is a factor of both its wind speed/central pressure and overall size. So its IKE can still go up as the minimum central pressure does. The surge is influenced by both factors size and wind speed/min central pressure as well, so even if Milton weakens in terms of wind/pressure but expands in size, the IKE can go up and the surge may be worse since more water is being moved overall. If it gets funneled into a bay or inlets it's made even worse.

Is TJ cumulative or is TJ's per hour or other unit of time? The wikipedia entry says that Hiroshima released 63 TJ. I was under the impression that hurricanes released several orders of magnitudes more energy than nuclear weapons

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1 minute ago, esullivan said:

In main thread someone said Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ -forecast to go to 70.  For non pros - what do these numbers mean in terms or surge?

Not really associated with surge directly. IKE takes the total wind field to determine the total kinetic energy of the storm. For example Hurricane Sandy had one of the highest IKE values of over 300TJ shortly before landfall. The larger the wind field the lower the relative pressure and the lower the pressure generally the more storm surge (but don’t forget inlets and bays are also impacted by wind-driven surge). Since a huge tropical storm could have an IKE similar to a tiny Cat 5 storm but the wind driven aspect of the surge would be vastly different (even though the pressure based surge would be similar).

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10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

When is the last time a major storm landfalled between say port charlotte  and Tampa? I think it’s been a long time, and everyone focusing on Tampa is really discounting, IMO, that a landfall in say Venice would be extremely devastating as well. 

One of my good friends has a condo in Indian rocks beach and every time I go down there, I think to myself how screwed that area is if a major hurricane ever landfalls there. Lots of homes and businesses without pilings and I’m pretty sure Helene washed out all of the dunes. That area will be unrecognizable if it landfalls in say Clearwater.

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

One of my good friends has a condo in Indian rocks beach and every time I go down there, I think to myself how screwed that area is if a major hurricane ever landfalls there. Lots of homes and businesses without pilings and I’m pretty sure Helene washed out all of the dunes. That area will be unrecognizable if it landfalls in say Clearwater.

I’ve been to Sarasota/siesta key. Id think siesta key would be absolute toast if it goes between there and Tampa. 

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12 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I’ve been to Sarasota/siesta key. Id think siesta key would be absolute toast if it goes between there and Tampa. 

Any place less than 10 feet above sea level and maybe even higher will be absolutely devastated south of the path of the eye in the max surge zone. It’s impacting at a perpendicular angle to the coast which also makes the surge worse. There will probably be new islands altogether since some will have new inlets. Also the surge height is WITHOUT waves on top. It’s the water height above the normal water height. 

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1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

When is the last time a major storm landfalled between say port charlotte  and Tampa? I think it’s been a long time, and everyone focusing on Tampa is really discounting, IMO, that a landfall in say Venice would be extremely devastating as well. 

 Since 1851, that area between Pt Charlotte and Tampa has had plenty of hurricane activity from storms moving N just offshore causing significant storm surge (1935, Easy (1950), Alma (1966)), coming nearby from overland with gusts up to 120 (Donna, 1926), or landfalling below cat 3 (1944 hit right at Sarasota but as high end 2 (105). Then there’s 1921 that was a MH (120) that passed by just to the N at Tarpon Springs and gave Sarasota 105. But there’s technically no MH landfall I could find right there since at least 1851.

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the eye getting smaller again is that good for inland and places not directly next to land fall but maybe 15-20 miles north? I'm thinking with landfall looking like its going further south the biggest impact here is going to be wind/rain but hopefully the smaller eye will help mitigate the wind impacts

 

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There was a very good illustration map of the Sarasota area in a post yesterday, which allowed one to see the streets progressively inundated as the surge went from nothing to 10 feet.

I know zip about Florida, so no idea whether your friend's location is covered. In any case, maps and good models exist.

Good luck!! 

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I feel like I’ve already become desensitized to how crazy what we’re watching truly is. Like they just updated it to 902 mb and I didn’t bat an eye. It could be years before we see another cane like this and I gotta remind myself to enjoy this meteorological beauty. 

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42 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If he’s being told to get out he really should get out. 

Trouble is that for most people, their home is all they have.

Leaving it vacant and at the mercy of the elements and of passers by is a huge step.

Imho, people would be more willing to evacuate if they had some assurance that the authorities had their back, that their property would be watched, so at least it would not be looted by the time they were allowed to return.

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3 minutes ago, Ace Mahomes said:

I feel like I’ve already become desensitized to how crazy what we’re watching truly is. Like they just updated it to 902 mb and I didn’t bat an eye. It could be years before we see another cane like this and I gotta remind myself to enjoy this meteorological beauty. 

 Fortunately for memory purposes we have the very recent Helene clearly reminding us that a 938 mb H is easily low enough to be an extremely destructive monster. Really could even include through 950s easily. A 902 is just too strong to even comprehend.

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4 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Trouble is that for most people, their home is all they have.

Leaving it vacant and at the mercy of the elements and of passers by is a huge step.

Imho, people would be more willing to evacuate if they had some assurance that the authorities had their back, that their property would be watched, so at least it would not be looted by the time they were allowed to return.

That’s asking a lot from local Leo during a natural disaster. They are spread pretty thin.

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1 minute ago, frazdaddy said:

That’s asking a lot from local Leo during a natural disaster. They are spread pretty thin.

Exactly!

People know this and consequently prefer to risk their lives by riding out the storm, just to avoid losing all their possessions to criminals and vandals.

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57 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Buddy is at 14’ elevation a few blocks off of the Peace River.  Guessing he needs to GTFO?

To put it on a bumper sticker, Peace River = Peace Out.

You can also let him know if the surge doesn't get him, the river length of 106 miles and drainage basin of 1,367 sq. mi. per wiki will carry a crap-ton of rainfall/runoff at a great enough depth to threaten flooding from the inland side.

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My in-laws at this red dot location in Charlotte Harbor have dug their heels in will not be leaving. The have a false sense of security because the slight elevation of their side of the street has kept them dry in 5-6" surges. At 7, the water is at their door. 

My last plea to move was met with this: "Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us  because a lot less surge if that happens"

image.thumb.jpeg.a1df72a8d8b368f970cd46b7d3fce745.jpeg

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Having a bit of trouble understanding the wind forecast for the i75 area of Port Charlotte assuming the landfall stays north of Siesta. We aren’t in a surge prone zone, over 25 feet above sea level. Seems like 10m wind maps don’t have much in this area but not sure if those accurately depict things. Any insight is appreciated and apologies for the IMBYness. 

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