Windspeed Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 We have a tropical storm still in its developmental phase, but obviously, with the official forecast, it's going to get chaotic. Major population center under threat and a lot of people talking about the current events, social, governmental, and civil-related topics. Keep the storm thread more meteorologically focused, please. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 this season has really been relentless on CONUS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 4 minutes ago, cardinalland said: this season has really been relentless on CONUS Yeah, throw that NS:H:MH ratio away. Five hurricane hits is an onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Don’t show y’all’s ass this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Gotta bring this one up again: 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 ROLL TIDE!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 People are already panicking about Milton, I guess because of what just happened with Helene in west NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 5 hours ago, Windspeed said: We have a tropical storm still in its developmental phase, but obviously, with the official forecast, it's going to get chaotic. Major population center under threat and a lot of people talking about the current events, social, governmental, and civil-related topics. Keep the storm thread more meteorologically focused, please. I see you ARE aware of some topics that are not so meteorologically focused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Guess peak intensity. Cat 5, 917 mb, 165 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Quote Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Milton is rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate very deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to appear. The last fix from the aircraft showed that the central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80 minutes prior, and winds supporting 70 kt at the surface. Since that time, satellite images continue to show further organization, and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt. Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton. This evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas. The NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours, following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern coast of Yucatan. Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the forecast near Florida. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life- threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to Milton expected on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Will an eye be elusive in this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 Will an eye be elusive in this one?No, sir. We should eventually see a very clear and symmetrical eye as a major hurricane while favorable conditions allow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Just now, Windspeed said: 33 minutes ago, Prospero said: Will an eye be elusive in this one? No, sir. We should eventually see a very clear and symmetrical eye as a major hurricane while favorable conditions allow. That will be different for a Gulf storm, until just before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I'm falling asleep now so of course it's RI time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Maybe the ERC happening now will cause it to max out sooner and weaken before LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Watching a potentially bad surge situation approach a large low elevation population give me Katrina vibes. Having lived in SW FL I know there plenty of stubborn and complacent people who will stay in risky areas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Bro what the...I got to bed and thing is barely a Cat 1...now it's a frickin' high-end Cat 4??? Oughta add another letter to RI: ERI (extremely rapid intesification). Sweet mercy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, NoCORH4L said: Maybe the ERC happening now will cause it to max out sooner and weaken before LF Wont matter that much in terms of surge though-that's baked it once it hits Cat 4-5. Wind damage less of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Milton putting on a clinic right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 21 minutes ago, Normandy said: Milton putting on a clinic right now Peaking too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gronzar Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 What do we think its going to do with that blob just to the NE? My ask got modded in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 36 minutes ago, Gronzar said: What do we think its going to do with that blob just to the NE? My ask got modded in the other thread. It’s just an enhanced area of convergence due to Milton’s circulation slingshotting low level flow NW and then rapidly pulling it back ESE. Many severe canes have these appendages but I wouldn’t worry about it affecting track or intensity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 15 minutes ago, Gronzar said: What do we think its going to do with that blob just to the NE? My ask got modded in the other thread. Agree with Normandy. I don’t think it changes anything materially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Imagine the insurance rates in Florida after this one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Milton bruh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I have a cousin who had a home completely destroyed by Otis in Acapulco, so he decided to relocate--to Sarasota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 11 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Imagine the insurance rates in Florida after this one. Other states will not be immune to those ridiculous rate increases. Hurricane warnings were issues well inland (Macon GA.) for Helene. Those rates increases will be felt well inland and beyond coastal communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This almost looks/feels like a typhoon we should be seeing in Asia instead of Cane going into Florida . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Anyone with a link to a good radar for Cancun and the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I wanna see it hit 200mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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