Fall/Winter '24 Banter and Complaints Go Here

[A-L-E-K]

this is so very true, just incredible vibes every time

 

 

[RogueWaves]

On 3/9/2025 at 8:33 AM, Baum said:

I'd call  and talk to Tom Skilling. He always took my calls. Fact.

Haha, right. Forgot to mention that while we didn't have TWC circa 82-83 we did get WGN so I got my first exposure to Skilling. Was blown away. Had never seen any weather segment like his, not even close. 

[A-L-E-K]

op gfs with an atmospheric river in fantasy range

[Baum]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Haha, right. Forgot to mention that while we didn't have TWC circa 82-83 we did get WGN so I got my first exposure to Skilling. Was blown away. Had never seen any weather segment like his, not even close. 

Chicago was lucky.Went from John Coleman to Tom Skilling. Coleman of course later went on to help create TWC. He also was the only met to forecast the Chicago Blizzard of 1979. Official forecast was 2-4". Watched his 10 pm forecast that night when he was forecasting a blizzard with over a foot. I thought he was crazy.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Been skiing 25”+ of powder in the Wasatch the last several days. I’m out of the loop, is this latest spring snow thumping for SE MN legit? 

[A-L-E-K]

that's how u do it^

[Torchageddon]

Today is the 100th anniversary of the Tri-State Tornado, the meanest of them all. True to form, wxbox released a vid on it:

 

[Stevo6899]

70 degrees to snow. I wish we could just flip from cold to warm and not have to go through this 2 month period march/April of mediocrity where were most likely not to get a snowstorm or severe weather or warm enough temps that last more than 2 days.

[roardog]

22 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

70 degrees to snow. I wish we could just flip from cold to warm and not have to go through this 2 month period march/April of mediocrity where were most likely not to get a snowstorm or severe weather or warm enough temps that last more than 2 days.

It really is the worst time of year. The period from about mid March to the end of April where most plant life is still dormant and you get a few tastes of warmth. Plus the days are long and the sun is warm so the cold is an annoyance. 

[Stebo]

51 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

70 degrees to snow. I wish we could just flip from cold to warm and not have to go through this 2 month period march/April of mediocrity where were most likely not to get a snowstorm or severe weather or warm enough temps that last more than 2 days.

Aren't you in Florida? Why are you complaining

[Stebo]

25 minutes ago, roardog said:

It really is the worst time of year. The period from about mid March to the end of April where most plant life is still dormant and you get a few tastes of warmth. Plus the days are long and the sun is warm so the cold is an annoyance. 

I'd rather we have some cold into end of March instead of mid April or something like that.

[Stevo6899]

32 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Aren't you in Florida? Why are you complaining

I'm only down there until March 1st. Work requires me in person starting in March. I wish I was down there. Its been 80 n sunny everyday since I left. 

[Stevo6899]

34 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I'd rather we have some cold into end of March instead of mid April or something like that.

Nothing grinds my gears more than colder than avg April's. My bad memory is well documented on here but I'd venture to guess April's have been avg to below avg temp wise more than half the time the last 10 years.

[roardog]

37 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I'd rather we have some cold into end of March instead of mid April or something like that.

Yeah. This warm March we are having is actually worse in some ways IMO. 

[Powerball]

15 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Nothing grinds my gears more than colder than avg April's. My bad memory is well documented on here but I'd venture to guess April's have been avg to below avg temp wise more than half the time the last 10 years.

 

Not quite, but close...

2024 = +4.3

2023 = +1.3

2022 = -2.1

2021 = +1.7

2020 = -2.8

2019 = +0.1

2018 = -5.9

2017 = +5.4

2016 = -2.6

2015 = +1.1

[michsnowfreak]

I found some really old weather data (1839-1872) and was curious if anyone knows or if there's any studies on this...temps were only taken 3 times a day (7am 2pm 9pm) and averaged. Clearly that is not going to be accurate like temps being recorded hourly, but I'm curious how much margin for error the end results would have. Also, does that error have a warm or cold bias or would it be a tossup?

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I found some really old weather data (1839-1872) and was curious if anyone knows or if there's any studies on this...temps were only taken 3 times a day (7am 2pm 9pm) and averaged. Clearly that is not going to be accurate like temps being recorded hourly, but I'm curious how much margin for error the end results would have. Also, does that error have a warm or cold bias or would it be a tossup?

I previously looked into this. It has a small warm bias which peaks from May to July. Maybe on the order of about 0.4F or 0.5F warmer than the average of maximum and minimum, but reaching as much as 1F during the long day period (i.e., May & June).

Keep in mind, this period predates even standardized time zones let alone daylight saving time. Time was measured in local solar time (LST), where noon equaled the time where the sun was at its peak in the sky directly overhead. For practicality, official time would be kept at one site for a city or region - perhaps a courthouse.

Detroit, owing to its location in the western part of the eastern time zone, is offset about 40 minutes from solar noon under standard time, and 1 hour, 40 minutes under DST. So the morning observation would have been taken around 8:40 EDT, so it doesn’t do a good job capturing the morning low. The inclusion of a 9 pm observation (which would actually be as late as 10:40 EDT) helps to mitigate this somewhat but does not completely eliminate the warm bias. In the wintertime, the 7 am observation (~7:40 am EST at Detroit) is pretty close to sunrise and less biased. This is the main reason for the strong seasonal effect of the bias.

The Smithsonian later changed the formula to double weight the 9 pm observation around 1870. So it became the average of 7, 2, 9, 9, which is much closer to max + min / 2, but still has a small residual warm bias by my reckoning.

Note, however, that observations weren’t always made by that standard. Sometimes only two observations were made. Sometimes, the observations were sunrise, 2, and 9 which would do a much better job of capturing the minimum. This formula would probably even have a cool bias relative to max + min / 2. However, it wasn’t as common as the other. Sometimes, the morning observation was taken even later.

[King James]

Done with these windy days. Far too often and far too powerful. Tiresome. Difficult to get much of anything done outdoors

[Chicago Storm]

bump...

 

[cyclone77]

46 minutes ago, King James said:

Done with these windy days. Far too often and far too powerful. Tiresome. Difficult to get much of anything done outdoors

Yeah, have about 10000 sticks down to pick up from the past 4 months.  Been waiting for a calmer period but it seems to be very windy everyday.

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I previously looked into this. It has a small warm bias which peaks from May to July. Maybe on the order of about 0.4F or 0.5F warmer than the average of maximum and minimum, but reaching as much as 1F during the long day period (i.e., May & June).

Keep in mind, this period predates even standardized time zones let alone daylight saving time. Time was measured in local solar time (LST), where noon equaled the time where the sun was at its peak in the sky directly overhead. For practicality, official time would be kept at one site for a city or region - perhaps a courthouse.

Detroit, owing to its location in the western part of the eastern time zone, is offset about 40 minutes from solar noon under standard time, and 1 hour, 40 minutes under DST. So the morning observation would have been taken around 8:40 EDT, so it doesn’t do a good job capturing the morning low. The inclusion of a 9 pm observation (which would actually be as late as 10:40 EDT) helps to mitigate this somewhat but does not completely eliminate the warm bias. In the wintertime, the 7 am observation (~7:40 am EST at Detroit) is pretty close to sunrise and less biased. This is the main reason for the strong seasonal effect of the bias.

The Smithsonian later changed the formula to double weight the 9 pm observation around 1870. So it became the average of 7, 2, 9, 9, which is much closer to max + min / 2, but still has a small residual warm bias by my reckoning.

Note, however, that observations weren’t always made by that standard. Sometimes only two observations were made. Sometimes, the observations were sunrise, 2, and 9 which would do a much better job of capturing the minimum. This formula would probably even have a cool bias relative to max + min / 2. However, it wasn’t as common as the other. Sometimes, the morning observation was taken even later.

Interesting info. While it can't be used for accuracy purposes, it DOES give you the feeling for what were the cold or mild winters, hot or cool summers etc. This combined with whatever newspapers noted at the time gives a rough idea of what the winters are. I'm going to work on a project this year to try and piece together these old years. Just at a glance I find it interesting that there was a heavier concentration of milder winters in the 1840s-50s and colder 1860s-70s, not unlike trends 100 years later.