Malacka11 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 53 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It definitely helps that the entire region has been snowless this winter. It would be much worse if I was sitting at 7" and Waterloo and Dubuque were at 35". 100%. It's like this winter just didn't take at all so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I’m in full on spring mode. Ready for Morch and some day drinking. . 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 15 hours ago, RogueWaves said: My complaint this morning was too much snow on the x-way. Roscommon hadn't touched S 127 so it was basically two tire ruts in the slow lane, and 4" in the passing lane. You're at the mercy of the slowest snail driver. You’re tantalizing me here. I guess I didn’t realize you moved that far north. How are you liking it? Bring some of that down here would ya? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Depends what you mean area wide snowfall. You're never going to get a snowfall that hits the entire subforum. We have had area wide snowfalls in southern MI so far (obviously nothing heavy). Going forward the pattern looks more active in Feb, so where storm tracks/baroclinic zones set up will be telling as to who gets some fun, but that is something with little skill more than a few days out. Yeah, I’d imagine it’s going to be lots of rainers. Maybe some pingers. The pattern has been like this since November, we wait for the cold and wet at the horizon, and it keeps getting pushed farther back. We finally got the cold, short lived albeit but little precipitation (outside of lake effect). Now on the horizon, I see lots of early spring systems with much of the sub in the warm sector and really a bias for warmth through the end of the month. EPS weeklies looking toasty. Kind of reminds me a bit of last February - maybe we’ll get another middle of the night tornado outbreak with some golfball size hail come the end of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Harry Perry said: Yeah, I’d imagine it’s going to be lots of rainers. Maybe some pingers. The pattern has been like this since November, we wait for the cold and wet at the horizon, and it keeps getting pushed farther back. We finally got the cold, short lived albeit but little precipitation (outside of lake effect). Now on the horizon, I see lots of early spring systems with much of the sub in the warm sector and really a bias for warmth through the end of the month. EPS weeklies looking toasty. Kind of reminds me a bit of last February - maybe we’ll get another middle of the night tornado outbreak with some golfball size hail come the end of the month. Short lived? Pretty much the entire month of January was cold, save for a few days. The first half of December was cold too. There has definitely NOT been a lack of cold this winter season, nor has their been a surplus of rain, outside of a rainy week in late Dec. Sometimes a cold pattern just does not sync with the storminess we want. In fact, this type of winter was more common 100 years ago than it is now. Likewise, some years that are dominated by a mild pattern luck out with snowstorms every chance you get (see 2022-23 for example, a terrible winter pattern yet multiple nice winter storms). The outlook for Feb per most is very up and down, theres very much potential with our region in the battlezone (if you believe projections/ensembles/etc). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 TODAY PERIODS OF RAIN. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .......I'm sorry, but what's the point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 iirc it's their job to tell us the weather even when it's partly cloudy or some shit, they let us know 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6Z GFS looked icy. Hope that doesn't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 36 minutes ago, Cary67 said: 6Z GFS looked icy. Hope that doesn't verify it won't 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 20 hours ago, Harry Perry said: Yeah, I’d imagine it’s going to be lots of rainers. Maybe some pingers. The pattern has been like this since November, we wait for the cold and wet at the horizon, and it keeps getting pushed farther back. We finally got the cold, short lived albeit but little precipitation (outside of lake effect). Now on the horizon, I see lots of early spring systems with much of the sub in the warm sector and really a bias for warmth through the end of the month. EPS weeklies looking toasty. Kind of reminds me a bit of last February - maybe we’ll get another middle of the night tornado outbreak with some golfball size hail come the end of the month. have another drink.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 6 years ago today MLI hit -33 for a new all-time record low. Hit -27 here that morning. Interestingly, today is also the day we hit 69 degrees back in 1989 for the all-time warmest January temp. I still remember that day, as I played hooky from middle school that day lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Heard and saw some sandhill cranes honking their way back north while I was raking up sweet gum star pods in the backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 1/31/2025 at 6:15 PM, cyclone77 said: 6 years ago today MLI hit -33 for a new all-time record low. Hit -27 here that morning. Interestingly, today is also the day we hit 69 degrees back in 1989 for the all-time warmest January temp. I still remember that day, as I played hooky from middle school that day lol. The craziest warm/cold temp swing over a short period in Chicago was probably in the 1984-85 winter. It was 69F on 12/28/84, then -27F (all-time record low) 3 weeks later on 1/20/85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 1/31/2025 at 8:13 AM, buckeye said: have another drink.... Jan 2025 wasn't really that cold in Chicago, with a monthly average of 22F. The shame is that it could have been a Top 20 cold month if there was snow cover here and upstream. That's the bigger story. If you look at 1951-1980 normals, Jan 2025 was actually a +1F departure...even as it was -3F vs. 1991-2020 normals. That says more about the obnoxious warming (exacerbated by UHI) over the past 40 years than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 This winter is cheeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Trying to understand why mid range modeling is so all over the place for us from run to run while the mid Atlantic and northeast have a consistent signal for snow. Is it phasing or trough position?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 For areas here in NE OH, I think the worst snows most of us every remember usually came from Lake Effect events. The Friday after New Years Eve, January 3rd, was the worst snow I have seen all year, and it was a Lake Effect snow band. Folks on here invest too much into storms tracking from lows across the Midwest, and then you have to get into the exact position of the low, or the amount of dry air, etc. etc. Lake Effect is where it's at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 0Z GFS 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 remember events? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just 3 weeks and 2 days till met spring. I'm ready. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 March will be magnificent for northern Illinois and Iowa 🫠. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Man. This winter has been so fucking bad that we cant even hold a fantasy range storm for more than a single OP run. Ready to torch and move to spring. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 17 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Jan 2025 wasn't really that cold in Chicago, with a monthly average of 22F. The shame is that it could have been a Top 20 cold month if there was snow cover here and upstream. That's the bigger story. If you look at 1951-1980 normals, Jan 2025 was actually a +1F departure...even as it was -3F vs. 1991-2020 normals. That says more about the obnoxious warming (exacerbated by UHI) over the past 40 years than anything else. You don't even have to go back that far. 1961-1990 normal was even lower. Even as recently as 2010, this January would have been considered +0.6F. They've really jacked up the January normal mean in the last two decades at O'Hare. If it rises another 0.8F for 2001-2030, that would be a full 5F rise from 1961-1990. 1951-1980: 21.4F 1961-1990: 21.0F 1971-2000: 22.0F 1981-2010: 23.8F 1991-2020: 25.2F For comparison, Rockford (RFD) has gone from 18.2F for 1961-1990, to 21.8F for 1991-2020, a rise of 3.6F versus ORD's rise of 4.2F. Interestingly, the normal January mean at RFD is higher than it was for ORD in 1951-1980 & 1961-1990, and just a touch below 1971-2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 18 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Jan 2025 wasn't really that cold in Chicago, with a monthly average of 22F. The shame is that it could have been a Top 20 cold month if there was snow cover here and upstream. That's the bigger story. If you look at 1951-1980 normals, Jan 2025 was actually a +1F departure...even as it was -3F vs. 1991-2020 normals. That says more about the obnoxious warming (exacerbated by UHI) over the past 40 years than anything else. Snowcover would have helped no doubt, but its always subjective to guess/assume HOW much snowcover would have helped. We had snowcover most of the month in Detroit. It was a solid cold month, but not top 20. Plus, especially at Chicago (but DTW too), the mild departures the last 4 days really ate into the departure. Say what you want about the overall flavor of the month, but it was absolutely for the most part a much colder month than was anticipated. Chicago January 2025 temp departure vs various normals. POR normal (1873-2025): -1.6 1991-2020: -1.6 1981-2010: -1.1 1971-2000: +0.4 1961-1990: +0.9 1951-1980: +0.1 1941-1970: -1.7 1931-1960: -3.7 1921-1950: -3.6 1911-1940: -3.1 1901-1930: -2.3 1891-1920: -1.8 Detroit Jan 2025 temp departure POR 1874-2025: -2.1 1991-2020: -2.6 1981-2010: -2.1 1971-2000: -1.0 1961-1990: -0.2 1951-1980: -0.9 1941-1970: -2.2 1931-1960: -3.8 1921-1950: -3.2 1911-1940: -2.4 1901-1930: -1.5 1891-1920: -1.4 1881-1910: -1.5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 hours ago, DocATL said: Trying to understand why mid range modeling is so all over the place for us from run to run while the mid Atlantic and northeast have a consistent signal for snow. Is it phasing or trough position? . ive noticed this over the years too...people think that other areas have consistent modeling. They dont. They have had countless fantasy storms in the northeast. The upcoming pattern is very active on the ensembles for the northeast although our sub (especially eastern sub) should get some fun too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Snowcover would have helped no doubt, but its always subjective to guess/assume HOW much snowcover would have helped. We had snowcover most of the month in Detroit. It was a solid cold month, but not top 20. Plus, especially at Chicago (but DTW too), the mild departures the last 4 days really ate into the departure. Say what you want about the overall flavor of the month, but it was absolutely for the most part a much colder month than was anticipated. Chicago January 2025 temp departure vs various normals. POR normal (1873-2025): -1.6 1991-2020: -1.6 1981-2010: -1.1 1971-2000: +0.4 1961-1990: +0.9 1951-1980: +0.1 1941-1970: -1.7 1931-1960: -3.7 1921-1950: -3.6 1911-1940: -3.1 1901-1930: -2.3 1891-1920: -1.8 Detroit Jan 2025 temp departure POR 1874-2025: -2.1 1991-2020: -2.6 1981-2010: -2.1 1971-2000: -1.0 1961-1990: -0.2 1951-1980: -0.9 1941-1970: -2.2 1931-1960: -3.8 1921-1950: -3.2 1911-1940: -2.4 1901-1930: -1.5 1891-1920: -1.4 1881-1910: -1.5 I like when you come in with accurate information that goes back further than the “cold” ‘60s and ‘70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 How about that “active storm track” 6z Euro shows 0.7” qpf here through hour 360 and less as you go west. Ensembles showing systems north and south of us and especially targeting the northeast. Old trends die hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 ive noticed this over the years too...people think that other areas have consistent modeling. They dont. They have had countless fantasy storms in the northeast. The upcoming pattern is very active on the ensembles for the northeast although our sub (especially eastern sub) should get some fun too.Yeah…usually with the coastals and walking the line between snow and rain. It just seems wild how with this current set up they are locked in and we are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 This is garbage 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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