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Fall/Winter '24 Banter and Complaints Go Here


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2 hours ago, bowtie` said:

I knew we were going to have to pay for all those sunny warm days. Hazards of living close to those pesky Lakes. Once the inversion gets set in the area, it almost takes an act of God to break down the inversion. Most of the week the forecast was for Sun on Sunday. Now today it has been downgraded to mostly cloudy. My bet is for the inversion to hold the upper hand.

Probably another reason is the upcoming solid mid-to-high cloud cover later tonight. This weekend's shot, anyway.

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On 11/23/2024 at 8:56 PM, bowtie` said:

I knew we were going to have to pay for all those sunny warm days. Hazards of living close to those pesky Lakes. Once the inversion gets set in the area, it almost takes an act of God to break down the inversion. Most of the week the forecast was for Sun on Sunday. Now today it has been downgraded to mostly cloudy. My bet is for the inversion to hold the upper hand.

Goes to show you how much I know about weather, squat. This afternoon between noon and three the Sun popped out and the inversion was blasted away. So happy I could be so wrong. Looked and felt pretty outside after a week of dull gray (grey).

 

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I sporadically visit the TWN now since the demise of their desktop layout, and the accuracy for my locale. Instead of looking at 7, 14 day I just ask their own version of AI Assistant what the highest max temp is going to be here, around 4 days ago it spit out that today Monday the 25th would be at a near record of 15C! Wow I thought how so? When I looked at the mid-levels and saw nothing unusual. I found out yesterday it was only going to be 5C from them and other sources lol :clown:  :facepalm: I ask the AI prompt again last night and it puked out the same BS of 15C for today! Best of all, I tried on a diff system in case browser cache was bungling things up just a few mins ago and now it gives me:

Quote

The highest temperature in Listowel, Ontario, during the next 14 days is expected to be 17 degrees on Monday, November 25, 2024. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts!

:lmao::lmao: That's not in F. The main reason for me visiting TWN now is comic relief.

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2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Detroit avgs 10 inches per December. I wonder when's the last time it eclipsed that? @michsnowfreak

Detroit avg for December is 8.9". Long term avg is closer to 10", but recent years have trended Dec snowfall down and Jan/Feb up.

So the last time Detroit technically eclipsed avg was Dec 2020 with 9.6", but the last time of 10+ was Dec 2017 with 22.5".

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4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit avg for December is 8.9". Long term avg is closer to 10", but recent years have trended Dec snowfall down and Jan/Feb up.

So the last time Detroit technically eclipsed avg was Dec 2020 with 9.6", but the last time of 10+ was Dec 2017 with 22.5".

Thanks for the info. 6 years is definitely too long. Hopefully this December we can get 10+. Also it's gonna be awhile before we break the daily Nov snow record of 9" in detroit that was set back in 2019, mby got 11 with that veterans day storm.

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Ive been wondering about this for the past day or so and am curious if anyone in Northern Michigan or who knows the area could help me figure this out. I am currently on a little vacation for Thanksgiving in Harbor Springs, Michigan (got here Wed and leaving Sun morning). I was excited for lake effect snow as I am from Central IL and have never experienced it before but we have almost completely missed out on the main LES band by just 5-10 miles and have struggled to get more than a half inch or so. My main question is if this is typical for this specific location, or just bad luck this time? And also wondered if the bands could shift at all between now and Sat Night. Thanks :)

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1 hour ago, CIllinoisSnow said:

Ive been wondering about this for the past day or so and am curious if anyone in Northern Michigan or who knows the area could help me figure this out. I am currently on a little vacation for Thanksgiving in Harbor Springs, Michigan (got here Wed and leaving Sun morning). I was excited for lake effect snow as I am from Central IL and have never experienced it before but we have almost completely missed out on the main LES band by just 5-10 miles and have struggled to get more than a half inch or so. My main question is if this is typical for this specific location, or just bad luck this time? And also wondered if the bands could shift at all between now and Sat Night. Thanks :)

You need to get to the highlands from Boyne down to Gaylord/Grayling.  You typically don't get much right on the coastal areas like Harbor Springs Charlevoix...

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14 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

You need to get to the highlands from Boyne down to Gaylord/Grayling.  You typically don't get much right on the coastal areas like Harbor Springs Charlevoix...

I figured that was a part of the problem, I may have to drive south a few miles tomorrow and see if I can check some of it out to experience it for a bit, thanks for the response :)

I will say, the drive down US-131 on the way back will be interesting though lol

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1 hour ago, CIllinoisSnow said:

I figured that was a part of the problem, I may have to drive south a few miles tomorrow and see if I can check some of it out to experience it for a bit, thanks for the response :)

I will say, the drive down US-131 on the way back will be interesting though lol

He's both right and wrong. On this event you want to get inland (due to early season lake warmth) and the better elevations offer the best lift. Harbor Springs/Petoskey does well on a SW flow event, more so if the lake warmth isn't so strong that it forces the streamers to dump further inland. See Dec 2001 as the bench mark when Petoskey scored 84" in that early season historic LES storm. I may check out the Gaylord area tomorrow if I find time. Oh, and getting missed by 5 or less miles. LOL - welcome to LES 

Edit - and now I see APX's AFD:

Lake effect snow lovers around
Gaylord and Sault Ste. Marie, take note -- it is hard to draw up as
perfect a set up as this, and it does not come around often. Many
synoptic similarities described above can be actually be drawn back
to the infamous 2001 Petoskey lake effect snow event -- where totals
of 80" and unofficial amounts near 100" over a several day span were
recorded.
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73237cde7eaafb06a0a1c3320481636b.jpg

Got some snow laid down with a few hours of wet bulb temps of 20 or so, although the wind made it pretty inefficient. All the N. IL and So WI ski areas have been blowing for the past few days. Alpine Valley and Tyrol Basin in WI open tomorrow as well as Sundown in Iowa. Chestnut in IL looks to open next weekend along with Cascade, Devils Head, Granite Peak, and Wilmot in WI.

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16 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

He's both right and wrong. On this event you want to get inland (due to early season lake warmth) and the better elevations offer the best lift. Harbor Springs/Petoskey does well on a SW flow event, more so if the lake warmth isn't so strong that it forces the streamers to dump further inland. See Dec 2001 as the bench mark when Petoskey scored 84" in that early season historic LES storm. I may check out the Gaylord area tomorrow if I find time. Oh, and getting missed by 5 or less miles. LOL - welcome to LES 

Edit - and now I see APX's AFD:

Lake effect snow lovers around
Gaylord and Sault Ste. Marie, take note -- it is hard to draw up as
perfect a set up as this, and it does not come around often. Many
synoptic similarities described above can be actually be drawn back
to the infamous 2001 Petoskey lake effect snow event -- where totals
of 80" and unofficial amounts near 100" over a several day span were
recorded.

It's funny enough seeing the changes around SE MI from place to place. Imagine the snowbelt. Live in Buffalos immediate south suburbs? Enjoy 2 or 3 feet. Live in Buffalos immediate north suburbs? You won't see a flake.

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8 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Also…all this clipper talk is highly overblown. Hoping to go back to that awesome weather we had in early November!

Ya, the older I get the more Im starting to like warmth. I dislike back loaded winters as well so losing the first snow month right off the bat stinks haha 

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On 12/3/2024 at 9:24 PM, Chinook said:

I made this map of a storm that happened 50 years ago, with marginal temps, and a cut off low, perfect for pulling some Atlantic moisture back to Detroit

 

The 70s were golden years of my youth and great snows.  It is too bad we have become snowless tundra these days.

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This early season cold with nothing to show for it has me wanting to throw in the towel already :lol:

Patience is key, but this is giving me flashbacks to the last two winters (which have been terrible here), It also doesn't help that I was spoiled seeing more snow in person than I ever have before in my life driving back from Northern Michigan Sunday LOL 

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On 12/3/2024 at 9:24 PM, Chinook said:

I made this map of a storm that happened 50 years ago, with marginal temps, and a cut off low, perfect for pulling some Atlantic moisture back to Detroit

1974_11_27_snowfall.png

That's amazing.

Looks like it's the heaviest snow storm on record at Akron, although official snowfall records only go back to 1948 for some reason.

image.png.112e614f5ee6de2271cbbcd88ea8c8b0.png

Pittsburgh had 14.8" of snow December 1-4, with 14.3" falling from December 1-2. Detroit had 19.5 inches from the 1st to the 3rd, with 18.4" falling on the 1st. Can't really think of any recent storm that has had such a widespread area with over a foot of snow.

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