Major Hurricane Milton

[jm1220]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I thought for sure Sarasota would have a pretty bad surge. I wonder which area got the worst surge?  It sounds like the entire coast got somewhat lucky in what could’ve been a much worse scenario.

We haven't heard from further south-Charlotte Harbor area. If anyone got pounded with surge I'd expect it down there.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We haven't heard from further south-Charlotte Harbor area. If anyone got pounded with surge I'd expect it down there.

I’m sure siesta key will be ground zero. Lots of high end real estate to drive up damage costs. 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We haven't heard from further south-Charlotte Harbor area. If anyone got pounded with surge I'd expect it down there.

Cantore was there. Said it was on par with Helene’s surge at his location 

[DDweatherman]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We haven't heard from further south-Charlotte Harbor area. If anyone got pounded with surge I'd expect it down there.

There and if parts of Sarasota got a 10-11’ surge, I’m sure Venice down through Englewood to the Port Charlotte area did not fair well. 

[NeonPeon]

The surge seems to have been less broad than expected in terms of the area affected with the worst of it. Many places were on the level of Helene.

The other thing is that this thing threaded the needle in terms of surge. Charlotte Harbor was just south of the worst and east of it when the storm came in, and the worst surge seems to have behaved like this was a small hurricane, with a small core, even though the windfield was more dispersed. Obviously a bullet was dodged with Tampa Bay also. So it would have been worse further north, or further south.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

The surge seems to have been less broad than expected in terms of the area affected with the worst of it. Many places were on the level of Helene.

The other thing is that this thing threaded the needle in terms of surge. Charlotte Harbor was just south of the worst and east of it when the storm came in, and the worst surge seems to have behaved like this was a small hurricane, with a small core, even though the windfield was more dispersed. Obviously a bullet was dodged with Tampa Bay also. So it would have been worse further north, or further south.

It was a small sized storm until last minute really. That helped. But I think Port Charlotte got it real good. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Disney flooded.

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Disney flooded.

Finally some good news. I’m hearing those images are fake and AI generated though. 

[Wannabehippie]

6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Made it back to St. Petersburg after the intercept in Sarasota earlier.

Checked out Tropicana Field and the crane downed…

I am glad that no one was hurt at The Trop, as it was set up as a place for first responders to get some rest. I have not heard if there were any injuries with the crane collapse, but hopefully we escaped any injuries there as well.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Finally some good news. I’m hearing those images are fake and AI generated though. 

Ha, I'm sure it is. 

[EWR757]

I'm glad damage seems less than anticipated.   

I thought the CAT 5 surge was "baked in"?  

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Cantore was there. Said it was on par with Helene’s surge at his location 

If that’s the case they’re quite lucky. 

[NeonPeon]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was a small sized storm until last minute really. That helped. But I think Port Charlotte got it real good. 

I'm not sure. I know someone on Pine Island, and the surge was bad but not as bad as Helene. Obviously it greatly matters exactly where you are, but excepting the area that got really nailed with the back end of the eye, the surge seems significant but not catastrophic.

 

[NoCORH4L]

23 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

I'm glad damage seems less than anticipated.   

I thought the CAT 5 surge was "baked in"?  

Probably was, but such small storm and angle of impact mitigation, plus it didn't push up TB. 

[goctican]

Central Pinellas this morning there was inland water rescues happening in none flood zones. I would guess from rain. Where I am, my downspout pointed out away from the house literally carved a 6in deep hole from how hard it came down. Couldn't believe it. I've got all my fence down and aluminum roof gone. Ripped my heavy gate clear away and destroyed it. 

South Pinellas into St Pete, family and friends reporting some catastrophic loss. Mostly from entire trees ripped out and thrown onto their houses. Most people I know that far south had evacuated though, although I haven't heard from those who stayed. 

[WxWatcher007]

Pretty surprised there aren’t more surge monitors along the coast, but the final numbers will be sorted out. It still looks to me like a very high impact major Hurricane from the limited information I’ve seen—from surge at the coast, to wind speed/duration St Petersburg east across the peninsula, to exceptional rainfall, and a prolific tornado outbreak. 

For me and my forecast—too far north with the track but still in the zone I guess. Intensity was about what I expected. Glad I kept talking about the rain potential because that ended up bad. Hopefully the region can get back on its feet soon. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Pretty surprised there aren’t more surge monitors along the coast, but the final numbers will be sorted out. It still looks to me like a very high impact major Hurricane from the limited information I’ve seen—from surge at the coast, to wind speed/duration St Petersburg east across the peninsula, to exceptional rainfall, and a prolific tornado outbreak. 

For me and my forecast—too far north with the track but still in the zone I guess. Intensity was about what I expected. Glad I kept talking about the rain potential because that ended up bad. Hopefully the region can get back on its feet soon. 

Was fortunate for TB that it slowed down and took the right turn when it did, was nerve wracking for a couple hours when it looked to be jogging N again. Will still be multiple billions of dollars in damage there from all the rain flooding plus wind/power damage. Still a very impactful event there. 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Was fortunate for TB that it slowed down and took the right turn when it did, was nerve wracking for a couple hours when it looked to be jogging N again. Will still be multiple billions of dollars in damage there from all the rain flooding plus wind/power damage. Still a very impactful event there. 

Absolutely. Not necessarily the worst case given the surge in Tampa Bay, but very high impact. It’s only the…people that wanted to see Tampa get slabbed that will say it wasn’t too bad.

I don’t like throwing out the “in my experience” stuff, but truly—16 tropical chases and in 12 of them (I checked lol) I felt the landfall point didn’t reveal itself until the final hours. Heck, NHC has said so too with the 20nm error rate in the last 12-24 hours. It’s almost always close if you care about exact landfall point (and most shouldn’t).

[NorthHillsWx]

My post got deleted yesterday (not sure why) but I said thank the lord this things core stayed very small while it was at high intensity and when the wind field expanded it did so mostly on the northern side so offshore winds. This greatly mitigated surge potential. The fear was that after the first ERC this would grow significantly and though it grew, it didn’t really grow that much. It went from tiny to small. That being said, I’m sure there were a few 10’ surge readings, Siesta Key would be my likely ground 0. Still haven’t seen anything from there. That is a devastating surge, it just wasn’t over as broad an area as we feared. As for inland winds, honestly the number of 100+ mph gusts is impressive. Certainly an area with plenty of observation locations but getting 80-90 mph gusts on east coast is super impressive and shows how the jet aided this storm even though the tropical core collapsed. Seeing those extremely strong backside winds almost no rain falling is absolutely a sign this was losing it’s tropical characteristics at landfall and drier air and the collapsing core pulled those winds in and kept them going inland. 
 

Overall, what I’ve seen sounds like intensity was accurate. This was likely verified as a low-end 3. Surge was probably a little less than most majors we’ve seen recently simply bc it had a small core especially in the part that created the surge (southern side). Wind damage is extensive and power outages are extreme. The tornado outbreak was one of the most severe in history for a tropical system. Very damaging major hurricane strike and hoping loss of life was kept to a minimum as Florida is excellent at preparing for these things. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

My post got deleted yesterday (not sure why) but I said thank the lord this things core stayed very small while it was at high intensity and when the wind field expanded it did so mostly on the northern side so offshore winds. This greatly mitigated surge potential. The fear was that after the first ERC this would grow significantly and though it grew, it didn’t really grow that much. It went from tiny to small. That being said, I’m sure there were a few 10’ surge readings, Siesta Key would be my likely ground 0. Still haven’t seen anything from there. That is a devastating surge, it just wasn’t over as broad an area as we feared. As for inland winds, honestly the number of 100+ mph gusts is impressive. Certainly an area with plenty of observation locations but getting 80-90 mph gusts on east coast is super impressive and shows how the jet aided this storm even though the tropical core collapsed. Seeing those extremely strong backside winds almost no rain falling is absolutely a sign this was losing it’s tropical characteristics at landfall and drier air and the collapsing core pulled those winds in and kept them going inland. 
 

Overall, what I’ve seen sounds like intensity was accurate. This was likely verified as a low-end 3. Surge was probably a little less than most majors we’ve seen recently simply bc it had a small core especially in the part that created the surge (southern side). Wind damage is extensive and power outages are extreme. The tornado outbreak was one of the most severe in history for a tropical system. Very damaging major hurricane strike and hoping loss of life was kept to a minimum as Florida is excellent at preparing for these things. 

I’m sure it was devastating where the high surge hit and we’ll see that soon unfortunately. “In my experience” I’ve seen around that level of surge and how devastating that is. And it’s not downtown Tampa but still very populated. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I’m sure it was devastating where the high surge hit and we’ll see that soon unfortunately. “In my experience” I’ve seen around that level of surge and how devastating that is. And it’s not downtown Tampa but still very populated. 

Agreed. It’s a very populated area, just not Tampa populated. Still, from reports south and north, it seems the devastating surge was limited to a small area, we’re just waiting to see how hard that area got hit. It seems strange to downplay 5-8’ surge (like many of the areas weve seen reports from experienced) it just doesn’t seem as severe being those same areas experienced that same surge two weeks ago with Helene. Still a lot of surge 

[jbenedet]

Seeing 30% of Florida customers without power is pretty damn telling of the scope and magnitude of the damage considering # palms vs large deciduous trees and ~50% power lines underground.

[Bubbler86]

On ground report from a friend in Daytona.  Got about 4 feet of surge back 1.5 blocks from the coast.  Flooded bottom floor/basement like area and killed their electric as it got into their circuit box.   Also lost shingles from the wind. 

[Newman]

Tropicana Field aftermath

https://twitter.com/Ry_Bass/status/1844367980249178396

[WxWatcher007]

 

[MANDA]

Here is a look at the "smoothed out" track of Milton.  Does not capture the various wobbles along the way. 

There was a notable southward displacement to the actual track vs. original forecast from last Saturday afternoon - Advisory #2.

Actual track was in the cone the entire time from that early forecast.  In the final run to the coast there was a more pronounced turn to the NE than the original forecast.  The landfall point from 5 days out was off by no more than 30 miles and the exit point off the east coast was off by about the same.  Both were just south of the original forecast track.  The early southward dip was the most notable forecast error.

[WolfStock1]

HIllsborough river NE of Tampa at record level:

 

[MANDA]

Edit to my prior post.

Found this:

Using Advisory #1 it was off by 12 miles. 

TPC shifted the track northward in Advisory #2 from initial Advisory.   Just noise really but forecast was amazing 4.5 days out.

[FPizz]

13 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

HIllsborough river NE of Tampa at record level:

 

But no warnings in the area, is that what the message means above the chart?  

[smokeybandit]

Anyone have any data on how long it took Milton to get back off shore into the Atlantic after landfall?