Major Hurricane Milton

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, cardinalland said:

geez the ceiling looks to be pretty high

This reminds me a lot of what happened with Katrina. It hit that Gulf Loop Current and exploded into a Category 5. Someone mentioned in a previous post that the jet pattern at landfall could mitigate wind damage. Remember that Katrina was knocked down from a Cat 5 to Cat 3 at landfall due to an EWRC. It was likely induced because of the increasing shear at landfall. With that said, this could potentially be another historic storm surge scenario. By the time it landfalls, even if it weakens slightly, the surge is already piled up at that point and pushing into the coast.

[purduewx80]

Yeah, HAFS-B is wild. Historic Cat 5 microcane followed by an ERC, all before it even gets to the loop current. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Yeah, HAFS-B is wild. Historic Cat 5 microcane followed by an ERC. 

I’m mobile, but assuming the storm grows a fair bit in the open GOM following the ERC as it heads ENE towards the coast?

[dan11295]

Good chance that's just the HWRF with its occasional run that really overdoes the intensity. Obviously anyone on the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a major hurricane.

[Nibor]

HAFS A also goes Cat 5 post ERC. 

[cardinalland]

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Good chance that's just the HWRF with its occasional run that really overdoes the intensity. Obviously anyone on the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a major hurricane.

yep the HAFS seems to do that too sometimes, plus this HAFS-B run initialized at a pressure of 997MB. But yeah, agreed.

This HAFS-B run is also quite a bit slower, with a position about 1 degree west and maybe 2/3rds of a degree south of the prior run.

[Hotair]

6 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Good chance that's just the HWRF with its occasional run that really overdoes the intensity. Obviously anyone on the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a major hurricane.

That’s the thing.  Few people I see are dealing with this yet.  Plus the city has no real plans to deal with the garbage that is being generated by the flooded homeowners who are stacking their wet junk outside their driveways.   I am terrified. 

[TPAwx]

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

That’s the thing.  Few people I see are dealing with this yet.  Plus the city has no real plans to deal with the garbage that is being generated by the flooded homeowners who are stacking their wet junk outside their driveways.   I am terrified. 

Then don’t look at the HAFS-B.  Gassed up the cars in South Tampa.  Target and Publix lots were pretty light, assume panic sets in tomorrow unless a significant south shift.

[LeesburgWx]

I would assume that most people are just finding out that there is even a storm to look at. By tomorrow night, I suspect many more will begin go take notice.

[Amped]

Normally I'd say the HAFS-B is crazy but all the Hurricane models are going sub 925mb with this.  Thankfully weakening some before landfall.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Amped said:

Normally I'd say the HAFS-B is crazy but all the Hurricane models are going sub 925mb with this.  Thankfully weakening some before landfall.

Still a really formidable storm near the coast and in the past few years they haven’t weakened nearly as much as the early 2000’s storms approaching the coast. Plus if we have a cat 5 in the gulf that undergoes an ERC and hits as a larger 3, the surge will certainly be extreme if Milton tracks through or over TB. 

[TPAwx]

The 18z HAFS A/B runs landfall near Crystal River, would do a number on Homosassa and surrounding areas, that have been hit hard multiple times the last few seasons.  Great fishing and recreation in that area.  Also would bring high end surge to TB.

HMON heading west of Cedar Key it appears.

[bobbutts]

Not many outs on that forecast cone.

[USCG RS]

This looks to be a potentially large storm again. Furthermore, those just hit need to closely monitor this, if possible. 

[DDweatherman]

If anything, I expected this to trend to the south of tampa, like many of the big W FL storms have (Irma, Ian). I wouldn't expect a curve or jump NW, but some of the 'cane models show that in this evenings suite. 

[Prospero]

Helene, she came with a sea-born roar,
A 6-foot surge upon the shore.
Gulfport braced, the waters high,
The tides rose up to kiss the sky.

Yet rumors tell of Milton’s might,
With fiercer winds and waves in flight!
“Twice the surge!” the whispers say,
As Milton eyes his stormy prey.

But hear me, friends, though winds may bite,
Though waves crash loud in darkest night,
Thy strength, like oak, shall stand unbent—
For Gulfport’s heart’s not easily spent.

So huddle close and hold the line,
The sun shall break, the stars shall shine!
For storms will pass, as all things must,
And hope returns, as sure as dust.

[Hotair]

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

This looks to be a potentially large storm again. Furthermore, those just hit need to closely monitor this, if possible. 

And those just hit need to meticulously document with photos and videos the current state of their homes and roofs  A wind event will likely be fought tooth and nail by the insurance companies who will argue for prior storm surge flood damage.  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Hotair said:

And those just hit need to meticulously document with photos and videos the current state of their homes and roofs  A wind event will likely be fought tooth and nail by the insurance companies who will argue for prior storm surge flood damage.  

Good points here. 

Also, with 18z models being a bit slower, makes you wonder the implication that has on the storm going a bit more N of prior runs. There's probably a limit to how far NW this can go. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Nibor said:

I’m not sure you can apply that logic this time. Those storms came from the south in the Caribbean. Milton will be heading east crossing the length of the gulf. Very unique situation. 

I don't disagree given the vector/heading, but given the bigger picture and macro environment, I wouldn't expect it to head towards big bend. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I don't disagree given the vector/heading, but given the bigger picture and macro environment, I wouldn't expect it to head towards big bend. 

I’m leaning to S of Tampa at this time due to the ICON doing well overall this year as well as due to the UKMET and ICON, the two best with Ian, being S of Tampa. Icon hasn’t had even a single run near Tampa or north going back a number of days. Same with UKMET though it has had Milton on only a couple of runs.

 If those two models trend to near or N of Tampa, I’ll then change my leaning to Tampa north.

[Prospero]

17 minutes ago, Hotair said:

And those just hit need to meticulously document with photos and videos the current state of their homes and roofs  A wind event will likely be fought tooth and nail by the insurance companies who will argue for prior storm surge flood damage.  

For those with older homes, if 49% destroyed will need to rebuild to modern requirements which for many places means raising the homes up which is extremely expensive.

[Hotair]

110 years of hurricane data reflects just how fortunate the West Coast has been in the last century. 

[CheeselandSkies]

22 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

If anything, I expected this to trend to the south of tampa, like many of the big W FL storms have (Irma, Ian). I wouldn't expect a curve or jump NW, but some of the 'cane models show that in this evenings suite. 

This isn't coming west/north over the Keys and/or Cuba and recurving a la Charley, Irma, Ian. Much different setup.

[Cygnus X-1]

29 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Helene, she came with a sea-born roar,
A 6-foot surge upon the shore.
Gulfport braced, the waters high,
The tides rose up to kiss the sky.

Yet rumors tell of Milton’s might,
With fiercer winds and waves in flight!
“Twice the surge!” the whispers say,
As Milton eyes his stormy prey.

But hear me, friends, though winds may bite,
Though waves crash loud in darkest night,
Thy strength, like oak, shall stand unbent—
For Gulfport’s heart’s not easily spent.

So huddle close and hold the line,
The sun shall break, the stars shall shine!
For storms will pass, as all things must,
And hope returns, as sure as dust.

I read this in 3/4.

Heavy rolls coming...

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

This isn't coming west/north over the Keys and/or Cuba and recurving a la Charley, Irma, Ian. Much different setup.

It's clear that its a different setup. Look at whats up there, not a ton of influence one way or another from the mid latitudes. 

[Hotair]

We are not ready for any level of storm in Tampa Bay 

[Seminole]

37 minutes ago, Hotair said:

And those just hit need to meticulously document with photos and videos the current state of their homes and roofs  A wind event will likely be fought tooth and nail by the insurance companies who will argue for prior storm surge flood damage.  

Timestamps on those photos is a key detail. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Apparently all my "Hurricane Milton" Office Space memes were tempting fate.

[DDweatherman]

9 minutes ago, Hotair said:

We are not ready for any level of storm in Tampa Bay 

Yep, I saw this today. Where are you in this? South Tampa near Davis? TI, Madeira and SPB, Ana Maria, etc. are even worse. 

[bdgwx]

0Z SHIPS is in. It's still showing modest intensity and RI probabilities. However, what piqued my interest is that DTOPS is showing an RI probability of 88% of 65 kts in 72 hours. I don't remember seeing a higher value. DTOPS is the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Model and is said to be the most skillful of all intensity models. [DeMaria et al. 2021]

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  MILTON      AL142024  10/06/24  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    35    39    44    50    56    67    76    80    82    82    74    63    52    37    25   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND       35    39    44    50    56    67    76    80    82    82    56    47    36    21   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       35    38    41    45    49    59    69    74    78    79    57    48    38    29    23    18   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)        10    12    10     8    13    13    15    20    20    30    41    42    52    46    42    39    50
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     0    -2     0     1     1     3     2     6     7     5     0     8     3    11    10     4
SHEAR DIR        222   238   252   237   224   237   236   234   230   223   214   226   227   232   230   242   242
SST (C)         31.3  31.3  31.1  31.0  31.0  31.1  30.9  30.5  30.5  30.1  28.8  29.2  28.2  27.4  28.0  27.5  27.6
POT. INT. (KT)   168   168   169   169   170   170   171   172   172   172   150   157   141   130   136   130   132
200 MB T (C)   -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.1 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C)   0.5   0.5   0.4   0.4   0.3   0.5   0.7   1.0   1.4   1.8   2.3   1.2   0.4   0.7   0.4   0.4   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       8     7     6     8     8     6     8     6     7     5     3     1     1     2     3     3     3
700-500 MB RH     75    76    74    70    68    63    58    52    47    52    52    55    54    49    43    40    38
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    11    13    15    17    22    26    29    32    36    35    32    30    25    21    16    12
850 MB ENV VOR    37    33    27    37    51    60    48    91   133   126   106    98    57    50    24     5   -10
200 MB DIV        32    25     7    20    31     6    45    22    39    53    84    86    53    63    16     8    -1
700-850 TADV      -1    -1    -2    -3    -7    -6   -12   -10   -10     1    -4   -19   -48   -26   -50   -38   -57
LAND (KM)        251   286   322   378   406   287   252   321   375   157   -85   234   435   579   757   913  1081
LAT (DEG N)     22.9  23.0  23.1  23.2  23.2  23.1  23.5  24.5  25.4  26.9  28.7  30.1  30.8 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)     95.3  95.0  94.6  94.1  93.5  92.0  90.3  88.2  86.2  84.1  81.8  78.8  75.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     3     3     4     5     6     8     9    10    11    12    14    15    14    12     9    10    10
HEAT CONTENT      50    51    50    50    49    47    41    43    58    24     6    44    19    16    14    11    11

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   4% is   0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  27% is   2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  12% is   1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   9% is   2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   6% is   2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  21% is   3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     4.1%   26.5%   12.4%    8.8%    5.9%   12.4%   13.3%   20.8%
    Logistic:     8.7%   34.6%   24.1%    9.7%    3.7%    8.2%    7.2%    3.4%
    Bayesian:     1.6%    4.6%    1.6%    0.9%    0.5%    0.2%    0.5%    0.3%
   Consensus:     4.8%   21.9%   12.7%    6.5%    3.4%    6.9%    7.0%    8.2%
       DTOPS:     5.0%   74.0%   43.0%   14.0%    6.0%   80.0%   79.0%   88.0%
       SDCON:     4.9%   47.9%   27.8%   10.2%    4.7%   43.4%   43.0%   48.1%