gymengineer Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 And up the coast from Naples, the increase in rate of water rise (slope) at Ft. Myers is coinciding with low tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It's still rising About 3.5’ surge so far there in Naples, and they’re headed for high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 17 confirmed tornadoes so far as per https://tornadopaths.engin.umich.edu/ That number is sure to go way up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 that is a few blocks from the tdwr site! Crazy detail 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is the one directly West of Boynton Beach correct? Wellington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Wellington tornado is lofting debris over 20k feet. Hitting densely populated subdivisions as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gustmouse Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 17:00 EDT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Wellington tornado is lofting debris over 20k feet. Hitting densely populated subdivisions as well. That’s a really impressive couplet Andy. We’ve seen Tor Emergencies for storms with that kind of profile. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, andyhb said: Wellington tornado is lofting debris over 20k feet. Hitting densely populated subdivisions as well. My friend is still chasing it (from the behind) he says its massive. I told him to consider backing off it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tampa Bay storm surge now expected to be 6-9 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwick WX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: My friend is still chasing it (from the behind) he says its massive. I told him to consider backing off it. Yeah if debris is going that high, who knows how far laterally toward your friend it can be tossed? Nevermind if the funnel expands... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 A sharp turn back to the right now per tracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Looks like the eye is slowing down a bit, maybe about to start the right turn. Regardless Tampa will get raked by the N eyewall and maybe a foot of rain. Radar estimates already 6-7” in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Massive wedge tornado in Fort Pierce! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Another view of it from him 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Max Velocity stream has live video, Tornado looks awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 18Z Icon: landfall 8PM TB ~2 hrs earlier than 12Z run had 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The HAFS models have been excellent simulating the interaction with front, trough, mid-to-upper jet, and its transitioning evolution with these features. Milton's current structure at this point just prior to landfall is very similar to their simulated structures for several days runs.Now we watch for the SLP enhanced surge aided by the expanding windfield. We also watch for Milton's southern circulation to be aided by the ST jet and potential sting jet driven westerly winds, which may enhance low-level winds in shoving the surge on the shelf inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton's IKE has increased dramatically to 78 TJ. For point of comparison using official NHC advisories just prior to landfall... Hurricane Charley 2004 was 12 TJ. Hurricane Helene 2024 was 100 TJ. Hurricane Katrina 2005 was 120 TJ. Superstorm Sandy 2012 was 330 TJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 15 minutes ago, bobbutts said: that is a few blocks from the tdwr site! Crazy detail That is a crazy hook echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Massive CC drop directly over Lakewood Park on FL's east coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 19 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Primary impacts for Tampa will likely be wind driven damage and flooding from excessive rainfall. Trees down on houses, extended power outages. Surge expectations are trending downward. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, TPAwx said: Primary impacts for Tampa will likely be wind driven damage and flooding from excessive rainfall. Trees down on houses, extended power outages. Surge expectations are trending downward. Agreed, however those impacts will be quite bad regardless. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton's IKE has increased dramatically to 78 TJ. For point of comparison using official NHC advisories just prior to landfall... Hurricane Charley 2004 was 12 TJ. Hurricane Katrina 2005 was 120 TJ. Superstorm Sandy 2012 was 330 TJ. I don't see this defined but apologies if already answered: What does IKE and TJ stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traindog71 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Integrated Kinetic Energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I don't see this defined but apologies if already answered: What does IKE and TJ stand for? IKE = Integrated Kinetic Energy. TJ = Terrajoules [Powell & Reinhold 2007] Official Calculator 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I don't see this defined but apologies if already answered: What does IKE and TJ stand for? 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't see this defined but apologies if already answered: What does IKE and TJ stand for? Integrated Kinetic Energy in TeraJoules 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Frictional wobble from approaching landfall is likely to help Tampa bay miss worst case scenario. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Considering the water is about 4' above normal at the Cape Coral gauge, I'd suspect we might start to see some storm surge in the next hour or so in Sarasota: Hazcams mobile 5-Sarasota, FL: https://livestormchasing.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now