Major Hurricane Milton

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Does the angle of this storm put Tampa in more danger than the way Ian came towards the coast?

Both are pretty bad (meaning more surge) tracks for the Tampa Bay metro. This may pile up water out ahead of the storm more efficiently I’d think depending on where it actually comes ashore. 

[Hotair]

6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Track scenarios are split: north of Tampa Bay or right over Ft. Myers. Both tracks would be devastating with catastrophic storm surge.

Saving grace would be an eyewall replacement cycle but in actual reality that wouldn’t help much. 
 

Environment supports Milton landfalling at peak intensity. To complicate matters, the critical angle of approach to compound the storm surge threat.

Split but the vast majority of tracks favor the devastation of TB at the moment.  The tight bundling leaves relatively little room for track error  

 

 

[dan11295]

Best, or more like less bad scenario, is for Milton to come in south of Tampa obviously. Regardless, this is a major surge threat made even worse by the fact Helene just did a number on coastal areas/beaches etc. along a good portion of the west coast. Lot of sand has been pushed inland and debris is laying on the ground. 3 days is hardly enough time to clean that up/repair beaches.

[MN Transplant]

Everyone is correctly focused on Tampa, but if this is a strong hurricane at landfall, some of these tracks are really sketchy for Orlando too.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Everyone is correctly focused on Tampa, but if this is a strong hurricane at landfall, some of these tracks are really sketchy for Orlando too.

 

6 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Sketchy, but they aren’t dealing with surge 

This increasingly looks like a high impact event along the track across the peninsula. Some of the rainfall totals in north central and NE FL are significant and the NHC track suggests significant winds will be a possibility inland too. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

This increasingly looks like a high impact event along the track across the peninsula. Some of the rainfall totals in north central and NE FL are significant and the NHC track suggests significant winds will be a possibility inland too. 

This could be Tampa’s most damaging hurricane depending on track. 

[andyhb]

New NHC forecast has the M prior to landfall...

[gallopinggertie]

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

New NHC forecast has the M prior to landfall...

And landfall right over the Tampa Bay area. At face value, that would be their worst hurricane since 1921.

[lilj4425]

FEMA is going to have their work cut out for them. Yikes:

[SnoSki14]

That's an ugly forecast from the NHC. They note intensity could be stronger too.

I'm curious how large the storm will be because it's very small right now and that'll make a huge difference regarding surge impacts.

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's an ugly forecast from the NHC. They note intensity could be stronger too.

I'm curious how large the storm will be because it's very small right now and that'll make a huge difference regarding surge impacts.

12z HWRF actually models a small storm that undergoes an ERC and expansion. I wouldn't count on a small hurricane like Charley.

[LeesburgWx]

I was thinking of Hurricane Charley and how that hurricane veered NE before reaching Tampa. Everyone was very worried for Tampa Bay but I have to imagine, the trajectory for Milton vs Charley is much worse, if Milton comes ashore at or just north of Tampa Bay.

[Hotair]

One of the key points made by NHC in this latest advisory is as follows

“the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles”

 

hopefully (for TB’s sake) NHC’s track error on this one is an outlier. 

[MJO812]

[buckeyefan1]

Fema isn't out of money and keep the lies and conspiracy theories out of here

[olafminesaw]

16 minutes ago, Nibor said:

12z HWRF actually models a small storm that undergoes an ERC and expansion. I wouldn't count on a small hurricane like Charley.

Yeah not good seeing it go through an ERC halfway across the Gulf.

[jbenedet]

22 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

FEMA is going to have their work cut out for them. Yikes:

It makes sense with the forecast jump given the organization today to achieve a well define LLC. That was the key hurtle, because once the structure is established it has tons of time by Gulf TC standards.

I’d love to see the statistical distribution of TC intensity in the gulf vs time (once LLC established) over open water.  At over 84 hrs there’s got to be a lot of company in the major+ category.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Fema isn't out of money and keep the lies and conspiracy theories out of here

I agree, despite the hyperactive hurricane season not materializing, we are still in a historic monitory season. Which was well forecast. (Regardless of how we got there)

[jburns]

34 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

FEMA is going to have their work cut out for them. Yikes:

What jumped out at me on the above graphic was the fact they now have Milton as a major at 1pm Tuesday.  A full 24 hours before landfall. Just a few hours ago they said it may approach major status just before landfall.

[GaWx]

18Z Icon: barely N of 12Z with it just N of Pt Charlotte Wed night (a bit later)

[WxSynopsisDavid]

16 minutes ago, jburns said:

What jumped out at me on the above graphic was the fact they now have Milton as a major at 1pm Tuesday.  A full 24 hours before landfall. Just a few hours ago they said it may approach major status just before landfall.

Usually this is their stair step approach to introducing high-end intensity into their forecast.

Not good to have a Category 3 hurricane moving over the Gulf Loop Current.

[jburns]

Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Usually this is their stair step approach to introducing high-end intensity into their forecast.

Not good to have a Category 3 hurricane moving over the Gulf Loop Current.

Big steps on this stairway. 

[TPAwx]

GFS looks a touch slower or maybe just a bit south thru 60h vs 12z

[TPAwx]

GFS landfall appears to be between Cedar Key and Crystal River 960s

Not as extreme for TB but still a high end surge event.

[DDweatherman]

The focus at this point is track, considering strength is likely to be a cat 3 or 4 approaching the west coast of FL. 

[purduewx80]

[Windspeed]

OPs (mainly ECMWF and GFS) are showing some interesting frontal and ST jet interaction near landfall, which appears to significantly tilt the mid-level vort and initiate transitioning of the surface vort. Despite the low pressure, perhaps that will mitigate wind damage if convective cells are confined more to the northern semicircle of the hurricane. Unfortunately, surge will have already been gained from fetch at high intensity and motion out of the central GOM and onto the shallow shelf, perhaps made worse by the somewhat perpendicular vector of flow towards the peninsula coastline. Granted, my comments are based on modeling alone, especially the look of the TC just prior to landfall on the main TC models (HAFS suite, HMON and HWRF). But keep in mind how this transition occurs IRL versus simulation and timing is too close for comfort. Also, any convection that really is there in what's left of the eyewall in the southern semicircle is likely to be fierce if the tight modeled gradient verifies.

[Amped]

Not sure why the GFS OP went north while the GEFS seems to have trended south.

[Amped]

Always wonder how the Gulf of Mexico being shaped like a comma seems to help storms in this location organize.  Also not the second  wind max off the Florida west coast will look similar to the blob east of Hurricane Mathew.

[cardinalland]

geez the ceiling looks to be pretty high