DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: @bdgwx Did you also happen to calculate the estimated IKE for Ian? Probably another good point of comparison there. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 47 IKE for Ian, so what Milton is at now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks to be jogging NNE at the moment. Someone posted this yesterday. Gives a great view of the movement. https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/live-wobble-tracker-changes-in-hurricane-miltons-path-could-have-huge-impacts/amp/ 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Far as you can tell, how is the eye doing? Maybe getting better defined on the IR but hard to base that on just a couple frames. Pretty small if the little "warm" spot is where its at. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks to be jogging NNE at the moment. yup, agreed noticed that the last few frames. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 47 IKE for Ian, so what Milton is at now.That's not a good sign to say the least. But certainly in line with the projections for the highest surge areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Seems to me the key is -- when does Milton cross 84W? 6z Euro doesn't have this happening until 27N. Hurricane models -- more like 26.4 N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Getting first Tornado Warnings for that heavy band over the SW coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Definitely a more NNE heading the last couple hours from looping the radar mosaic. Could easily wobble more eastward again though. Several models show an eastward turn right before landfall as well. Timing of that turn is going to be so crucial for Tampa in regards to surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Much larger eyewall evident on radar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 What's immediately noticeable on this recon flight so far is how far northeast of the center flight-level (not surface) hurricane force winds now extend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tornadoes are really ramping up now. As discussed earlier some of these are not your typical hurricane spawned rotations.https://x.com/weatherwithlaur/status/1844037683829710958?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: What's immediately noticeable on this recon flight so far is how far northeast of the center flight-level (not surface) hurricane force winds now extend. Interaction with the jet to the NE doing its work. It’s imparting shear as well but helping the hurricane expand and increasing the IKE which unfortunately means more water being moved and worse surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Getting a bit late for models at this point but 12z GFS has Sarasota landfall at 03Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I am impressed with how the eye has centered itself within the convection given the shear 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 The latest VDM from about 40 minutes ago had the eye of Milton now at 32nm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArlingtonWX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The 12pm update a few minutes early 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 21 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: I am impressed with how the eye has centered itself within the convection given the shear Yet again, Milton is rebounding very healthy from an ERC. Continues to remain resilient to shear and dry air. Absolutely not what you want to see heading into landfall. Milton was expected to have its bottom ripped out from this ERC and roll in as a weak Cat 3. Milton is simply holding its intensity and that strong inner core. Really poses a serious threat to over-performing in terms of landfall intensity. That’s if Milton continues to remain resilient, Milton will most certainly have one final intensification process as it nears land. Would be both environmental and frictional induced. Overall, I’m not liking this trend we are seeing and starting to grow concerned of the aspect of greater intensity on landfall. Hopefully, post ERC, Milton loses the resiliency. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 As @olafminesawnoted earlier, this is a much larger eye and potentially getting larger. Factor that in as you’re tracking the center’s final approach. Numerous tornado warnings including a PDS warning. Flash flood warnings east of Gainesville. Conditions are clearly deteriorating along the west coast of Florida as well and flash flood and tornado warnings will likely increase as that big band continues scraping the region. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: As @olafminesawnoted earlier, this is a much larger eye and potentially getting larger. Factor that in as you’re tracking the center’s final approach. Numerous tornado warnings including a PDS warning. Flash flood warnings east of Gainesville. Conditions are clearly deteriorating along the west coast of Florida as well and flash flood and tornado warnings will likely increase as that big band continues scraping the region. Tornado warning for a tor OTG near Cape Coral headed towards Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda & the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Multiple Surge Cam feeds here 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Those are some nasty couplets over the middle of the peninsula. Good thing there are less people out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Tornado warning for a tor OTG near Cape Coral headed towards Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda & the airport. Some serious circulations. Paging @weatherwiz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: … If I’m reading this right that is a massive swath of surface hurricane force winds, right? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Some serious circulations. Paging @weatherwiz There are classic supercells too. If you didn't know there was an incoming hurricane and didn't have a geography background for reference, you would think you were looking at the southern Plains in May with a warm front having lifted north and dry line punching east. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 10 minutes ago, a5ehren said: Those are some nasty couplets over the middle of the peninsula. Good thing there are less people out there. But, they are progressing toward more populated areas along US 27. The entire SPC Tornado Watch area is primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 28' waves at 42097 (at obs time, est 30 nm e.s.e. current center, reports are every 30 min -- this buoy does not report winds). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yup, all of those cells to the East of the main feeder band are reminiscent of a May evening in Oklahoma. Lots of smaller cells are starting to fire over Southeast FL, closer to the coast. Will be interesting to see if those become tornadic as well. As crazy as it is, the environment is only becoming even more primed with those higher helicity values moving in and 3km CAPE is still increasing a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 12z HAFS-B 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Curious to see if this new eyewall developing can close. Still looks healthy if a bit ragged on IR. Like others have said it’s pretty dramatically expanding its windfield at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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