AccuChris Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Forgive me if this is very daft but 941? Your image says 917 and 923. Am I missing something here?The graphic was not updated to show their latest pass but as someone else just noted, looks like the plane missed the eye by 8-10 miles so that pressure of 941mb was not a true accurate SLP reading in the eye. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Milton looks very messy on more recent IR loop. More signs of shear beginning to have greater effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 8 minutes ago, wdrag said: Manatee County FL 13000 meters without power. No storm report. Cause unknown. Pre-emptive shutoff? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 It's in the middle of an erc so nailing the center is a little tricky and there can be wide variations on the pressure readings. Especially with the gradient that Milton has shown. Another recon is already nearing the storm. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Milton looks very messy on more recent IR loop. More signs of shear beginning to have greater effect? It’s possible, more likely because the shear is coinciding with the Ewrc. The storm aligning with the shear vector should reduce overall impact, especially at this juncture since the storm hasn’t reached the stronger shear in the C/N gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This is not something that you see everyday in Florida. There is potential here for more than just quick spin ups. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Getting first TS force gusts on land now at Venice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is not something that you see everyday in Florida. There is potential here for more than just quick spin ups. I feel like this is the first time I’ve seen a hatched tornado risk with a tropical system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, Intensewind002 said: I feel like this is the first time I’ve seen a hatched tornado risk with a tropical system It may be. I’m probably wrong, but I swore with Ivan there was a MDT risk associated with that one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Moving slightly N of NE at least by my estimate. TB radar using GR3v2 range rings with marker. Official forecasted track N of previous advisory. GFS (hot stuff) has been steadfast on track. Social Media is bonkers everyone has an opinion, not worth posting anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: I feel like this is the first time I’ve seen a hatched tornado risk with a tropical system I know that the NAM isn't very useful for tropical systems but look at this forecasted sounding and hodograph from the 12z 3k NAM for the Orlando area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This first band maybe 20 miles offshore will have some rough conditions and definitely some spin-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The most important thing to probably watch over the next couple of hours is where the eye either re-emerges or becomes more clear. This is going to be critical as we near the final several hours leading up to landfall and where landfall occurs and even when talking about the angle. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 8 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: I feel like this is the first time I’ve seen a hatched tornado risk with a tropical system These are some very healthy supercells with solid hooks over Alligator Alley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 So, assuming Milton passes 10-20 miles south of the mouth of Tampa Bay, I would assume this means much less surge in Tampa Bay than the 8-12' still forecast (and maybe reverse surge with winds from the east-ish). Is there a model showing the surge before and after landfall for that scenario (and will there eventually be some surge on the backside, with maybe NW winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The new eyewall is very much open on the South and West side of the storm. Need to watch convective bursts to see if they can sustain all the way around the eye, or if shear keeps the eyewall open. For days the hurricane models have been showing the "halficane" look with dry air making it's way into the system, so that's kinda what I'd lean towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I know that the NAM isn't very useful for tropical systems but look at this forecasted sounding and hodograph from the 12z 3k NAM for the Orlando area. It's certainly useful for mesoscale parameters. STP is bonkers this afternoon. Potential, if not probable, tornado outbreak. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Discrete cells with definite hooks propagating outward in the first true outer spiral band - RFQ Does anyone know how fast an EWRC has taken place? My expected gusts have dropped for N. Lake County. I just want the power to stay for one good meal Dinner tonight. LF Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 8 minutes ago, nwohweather said: These are some very healthy supercells with solid hooks over Alligator Alley. Large tornado observed in that cell https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1844017578357993544 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, ROOSTA said: Discrete cells with definite hooks propagating outward in the first true outer spiral band - RFQ Does anyone know how fast an EWRC has taken place? My expected gusts have dropped for N. Lake County. I just want the power to stay for one good meal for Diner tonight. LF Tampa Bay. Its tricky because the increasing shear may not allow the EWRC to ever complete if the SW side remains open. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: The new eyewall is very much open on the South and West side of the storm. Need to watch convective bursts to see if they can sustain all the way around the eye, or if shear keeps the eyewall open. For days the hurricane models have been showing the "halficane" look with dry air making it's way into the system, so that's kinda what I'd lean towards. While still difficult to see on radar with attenuation preventing us from observing the west side of the eyewall clearly - it looks as if the original eyewall is already merging with the secondary maxima. It's a race against the clock on whether the storm can mostly complete the EWRC before the shear/dry air intrusion overcome the structure of the storm. I genuinely am surprised on how quickly this EWRC commenced though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 well here we go 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 the 10:00 advisory still shows 155mph and 919mb.. I never would have guessed that from looking at its current satellite presentation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Some of the posts earlier questioning the entire forecast are really abhorant and lack general substance. This storm is going as planned intensity wise with all the different variables discussed with regards to EWRC/Shear/Dry air entrainment all basically going to plan from what models/NHC have been indicating for days. Yes, storms can surprise and deviate from the official forecast, but insinuating it’s off base from the forecast is just unsubstantiated bloviating at this juncture. Milton still has a fairly strong core with a very stout Northeastern Quad that will likely be more resilient to any factors involving dry air entrainment. These storms that have had a well-defined core for long periods of time have historically been able to thwart off rapid weakening attempts unless its protruded by a significant dry air tongue (Irma near Cuba) and/or shear running perpendicular to the storms path. The storm was always expected to weaken today, but the synoptic pattern over the Eastern CONUS will still maintain favorable RER dynamics that will favor wind field expansion and begin the initial stages of some extra-tropical transition with the precip field becoming more asymmetric and focused on the northern half of the circulation. Even if the storm runs down to low-end Cat 3, the amount of IKE that is built up will drive surge throughout much of Western FL with a significant surge progged for the Southeastern Quad of where Milton comes ashore. The angle of attack is such that a prolonged southeast fetch will lead to gradual waves of surge inundation along the coast with a focus likely Fort Meyers up through Tampa Bay. The main wall of surge will be focused towards timing and location of landfall. The track is still within the cone of uncertainty and any adjustments will be made through the course of the day for the LF positioning. For all intents and purposes, this is going according to plan and any significant shifts will be relayed to the public and stakeholders alike. 18 6 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The 12z NAM is basically a worst case track for Tampa bay. The more east trajectory after moving into the bay really allows the surge threat to get amplified with the Gulf water rushing in behind the circulation. It’s the NAM but should give some clues directionally on the rest of the 12z suite. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Starting the morning here in St. Pete, and will be stepping southward as needed through the day today. 15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The 12z NAM is basically a worst case track for Tampa bay. The more east trajectory after moving into the bay really allows the surge threat to get amplified with the Gulf water rushing in behind the circulation. It’s the NAM but should give some clues directionally on the rest of the 12z suite. Wouldn’t the highest surge for Tampa Bay be if the eye were to come in just to the north like it did in 1921 rather than right at TB? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Starting the morning here in St. Pete, and will be stepping southward as needed through the day today. Good luck. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Wouldn’t the highest surge for Tampa Bay be if the eye were to come in just to the north like it did in 1921 rather than right at TB? Imo if the center makes its way ~due east of Tampa, in close proximity you will see the gulf rush into Tampa bay in the direction of Tampa. That would maximize the threat to Tampa specifically 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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