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Major Hurricane Milton


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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Both HAFS go into long boat key, the HMON goes into St Pete still

Obviously slightly better scenario for Tampa Bay area but I imagine the initial surge would still be substantial into the bay on that track?

This all seems terrible for Sarasota which I have a familial connection to.

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00z Hurricane Models at or just prior to landfall. Not nearly as much weakening as was previously modeled. 

HAFS-A/B take an E/ENE track from these points of reference. HWRF and HMON continue to put St. Pete (and the mouth of the Tampa Bay waterway) in the bullseye.

00zHurricaneModels.png

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48 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Its not that Florida isn't used to heavy rain events - the problem is that usually the rain only falls over a small area and only for a short time.......Milton will bring tremendous areal coverage of precip at 2" and 3" per hour rates for hours.......that is a recipe for disaster......the storm drainage systems don't stand a chance.....localized urban flash flooding is a very real threat.....

Some of those drainage systems are still damaged from Ian.

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

00Z Euro makes landfall at St. Pete Beach

Goalposts narrowing between Treasure Island & Longboat Key. Regardless of Milton's exact landfall location, impacts will be devastating, yet on a relative basis a St. Pete Beach landfall would be close to a worst case scenario... 

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19 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

00z Hurricane Models at or just prior to landfall. Not nearly as much weakening as was previously modeled. 

HAFS-A/B take an E/ENE track from these points of reference. HWRF and HMON continue to put St. Pete (and the mouth of the Tampa Bay waterway) in the bullseye.

00zHurricaneModels.png

Hmon and HWRF still have wind trajectories that look like they are sucking water out of the bay rather than pushing it in, and from this storm size/shape  it would have to track way north through Port Richey for TB to get the maximum surge.

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5 minutes ago, Amped said:

Hmon and HWRF still have wind trajectories that look like they are sucking water out of the bay rather than pushing it in, and from this storm size/shape  it would have to track way north through Port Richey for TB to get the maximum surge.

Water would slosh right back into the Bay with the HWRF/HMON tracks on the back side, coincident with high tide. 

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5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Incredible. The resilience is textbook. Time is running out for weakening. And while it will obviously weaken the fact that it’s still so strong now into the final climb towards landfall means the surge and wave setup is that of a cat 5. Very Katrina.  

The difference that occurs to me is Milton is a good bit smaller than Katrina. Though NHC has mentioned several times they expect it to grow in size before making landfall.

They’ve also mentioned Milton might already be beginning to make extratropical transition by the time it makes landfall, which is pretty wild. 

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I  can't see this going truly extratropical before Friday s of SC, but it could be hybrid by 36h. Wasn't there a debate about a possibly too-early call on Sandy being e.t. before NJ landfall? It would only confuse the public who would not get the spreading out wind field concept, personally I think they should retire the whole concept, if it's a hybrid or e.t. storm doing damage then keep issuing advisories until it's not doing damage. 

Now Kirk is definitely e.t. and has been for 24 ... and it's almost below damage creating criteria (wind gusts in nw Spain were 65-70 on very exposed rocky cliffs and look to be around 60-65 in western France).  

 

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Weather radio and tornado warning woke me up. It is now on the local radar. Funny how that little green blob I see will make so many, maybe even myself, say goodbye to the world we thought we lived in.

The lyrics of Mika's song, Any other world, seem to go with the mood right now. It's time to finish getting ready for Milton's unwanted visit. Good luck to all those in it's path.

In any other world
You could tell the difference
And let it all unfurl
Into broken remnants
Smile like you mean it
And let yourself let go
'Cause it's all in the hands of a bitter, bitter man
Say goodbye to the world you thought you lived in
Take a bow, play the part of a lonely, lonely heart
Say goodbye to the world you thought you lived in
To the world you thought you lived in

image.thumb.png.2ae0042723374445aa037a2c8b519a2a.png

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Down to 907.  Forecast track slight adjustment north.

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES
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