dan11295 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 210330 2242N 08727W 6957 02329 9024 +236 +106 318007 025 039 001 03 902.4 mb extrap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 902 mb with a 39 kt wind, this thing is sub 900 again likely. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 902.4 extrap, waiting on the sonde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8 Author Share Posted October 8 With a 159kt FL wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I imagine NHC will be doing a special advisory update increasing the winds and updating for the lower pressure in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 155 knot SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gustmouse Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 17:15 EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The Adt page says 903mb 155kt. Accurate for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it beats yesterday's peak, I'll show up at the SNE xmas gathering with @WxWatcher007shaved into my chest. Well, I hope Santa brings me a cat 5 trimmer. 6 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 has a storm ever gone sub 900mb twice before? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: has a storm ever gone sub 900mb twice before? Not in the Atlantic basin. 10 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ. It is now forecasted to intensify to 70 TJ just prior to landfall. For point of comparison Hurricane Charley 2004 was only 12 TJ. If the current track and intensity forecast verifies then the 60 mile stretch of coastline and particularly the barrier islands from Tampa Bay to Charlotte Harbor are going to get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: has a storm ever gone sub 900mb twice before? Not in the Atlantic, Allen was the closest, but its first peak was 911 and its third was 909. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Updated intensity: Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON... Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches). The aircraft observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h). SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 87.4W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.72 INCHES 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Andy Hazelton pointed out that yesterdays 12z HAFS-B model run has been incredibly accurate so far, and it depicts Milton going to 880 mb tonight. Could be an absolutely historic night and insane model verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ. It is now forecasted to intensify to 70 TJ just prior to landfall. For point of comparison Hurricane Charley 2004 was only 12 TJ. If the current track and intensity forecast verifies then the 60 mile stretch of coastline and particularly the barrier islands from Tampa Bay to Charlotte Harbor are going to get rocked. And Rita was a 30 and we all remember that surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 144kt surface wind NW dropsonde. 150kt average over lowest 150m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 5 minutes ago, MUWX said: Andy Hazelton pointed out that yesterdays 12z HAFS-B model run has been incredibly accurate so far, and it depicts Milton going to 880 mb tonight. Could be an absolutely historic night and insane model verification. If I'm not mistaken that is the typical air pressure at 1 mile of elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: 144kt surface wind NW dropsonde. 150kt average over lowest 150m. That one went for a ride 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 7 minutes ago, MUWX said: Andy Hazelton pointed out that yesterdays 12z HAFS-B model run has been incredibly accurate so far, and it depicts Milton going to 880 mb tonight. Could be an absolutely historic night and insane model verification. potentially more damaging than the pressure, would be the HAFS-A / HAFS-B / HWRF track, which continue to be on the northern side of the model suite. A Clearwater / Treasure Island vs. Bradenton landfall will make a significant difference those within the Tampa Bay waterways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: 144kt surface wind NW dropsonde. 150kt average over lowest 150m. Is that correct, NW eyewall? That’s an impressive reading in the NW quad if that’s correct. Since winds are much more intense in NE quad, that would make me believe winds are around 180-185. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 It matches Hurricane Dean pretty well in size and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Is that correct, NW eyewall? That’s an impressive reading in the NW quad if that’s correct. Since winds are much more intense in NE quad, that would make me believe winds are around 180-185. SE eyewall, NE winds, that sonde got blown around and went for a ride. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Both planes are having transmission issues. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 18Z Icon and GFS: St. Petersburg (a couple of miles N of 12Z runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Latest track as TPC indicated in 5PM update has been nudged south. Mainly due to the notable S.E. wobble earlier. Current track is about 22 miles south of the entrance to Tampa Bay. Way to soon to call an exact landfall location and any future wobbles especially as we get closer to landfall tomorrow night would have an impact on exact landfall. Track as it stands now would spare Tampa Bay the worse of the surge. If current forecast track is close to reality the worst of the surge would be from Siesta Key down toward Fort Myers. Not minimizing in any way the impacts for Tampa area just that current track would keep the max surge out of Tampa Bay. Watch for wobbles over the next 24 hours. Serious situation so if told to leave please leave. Max surge could reach historic levels. When all is said and done this could be the costliest hurricane to strike the U.S., certainly would be in the top 3 I would think. It will be affecting larger population centers as it landfalls and then crosses the state of FL. Power outages will be very widespread and long lasting. Friends in Boca Grande took a hard hit with Ian. Surge with this could be just as bad for that area although winds would be less. Final track will determine all of this and who gets the worst of it but prepare for something historic if you are in the cone and even south of the cone in case there is another southward adjustment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 18Z GFS shifted slightly north, bringing a Tampa Bay mouth landfall back in to the picture. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I’d think with the angle of approach track adjustments won’t be as drastic as a more southerly approaching storm. With this you’ll need an actual 100 mile south shift to go from Tampa to ft myers, where with a southern approaching storm a 25 mile further east track can be 100 mile difference on the coast where it landfalls. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Last few satellite frames are very impressive with the eye symmetry. Central pressure is probably back into the upper 800's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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