Major Hurricane Milton

[StormChazer]

Just keeps looking better and better on IR.

[TPAwx]

EPS mean track over Longboat Key late Thursday morning

[LeesburgWx]

Full on donut

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Full on donut

I fully expected recon to find a significantly strengthened storm when we get a plane in there. Beauty. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I fully expected recon to find a significantly strengthened storm when we get a plane in there. Beauty. 

The plane just got there.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

[cptcatz]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The plane just got there.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

That's an upper level dropsonde mission. Looks like an AF recon plane just took off, should be there in an hour or two. 

[WxWatcher007]

Well…it speaks for itself. As good a look as anything yesterday.

 

 

[bdgwx]

As we wait for recon flights here is the ADT history over the last 12 hours.

ADT91 LIST 14L.ODT CKZ=YES
=====    ADT-Version 9.1 =====
                  ----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- --------Tno/CI Rules-------- -Temperature-                    
           Time         MSLP/Vmax   Fnl Adj Ini   Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd   ET   ST   Cntr   Mean   Scene  EstRMW   MW   Storm Location
   Date    (UTC)   CI  (CKZ)/(kts)  Tno Raw Raw    Limit  Flag Wkng Flag Flag Region  Cloud  Type    (km)  Score   Lat     Lon  

2024OCT08 061020  7.7  896.6 161.0  6.9 6.7 5.8  0.5T/hour  ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -68.64 -75.85  EMBC     N/A   84.8   22.16   90.04
2024OCT08 064020  7.7  896.7 161.0  6.7 6.6 6.0  0.7T/6hr   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -74.43 -78.44  EMBC     N/A   84.8   22.00   89.56
2024OCT08 071020  7.7  896.6 161.0  6.7 6.7 6.1  0.7T/6hr   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -70.52 -78.87  EMBC     N/A   84.8   22.15   89.35
2024OCT08 074020  7.6  899.7 158.0  6.6 6.8 5.9  0.7T/6hr   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -73.65 -77.17  EMBC     N/A   84.8   22.15   89.57
2024OCT08 081020  7.7  896.6 161.0  6.7 6.9 6.1  0.7T/6hr   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -68.07 -78.98  EMBC     N/A   78.5   22.21   89.13
2024OCT08 084020  7.7  896.6 161.0  6.7 6.9 5.5  0.7T/6hr   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -68.76 -78.17  UNIFRM   N/A   78.5   22.22   89.06
2024OCT08 091020  7.7  896.6 161.0  6.8 7.0 5.5  0.7T/6hr   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -67.17 -77.76  UNIFRM   N/A   78.5   22.30   88.90
2024OCT08 094020  7.6  899.6 158.0  6.8 6.9 5.5  0.7T/6hr   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -68.53 -77.65  UNIFRM   N/A   78.5   22.34   88.80
2024OCT08 101020  7.5  902.5 155.0  6.8 6.8 6.1  0.7T/6hr   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -66.73 -78.66  EMBC     N/A   75.0   22.37   88.90
2024OCT08 104020  7.3  908.4 149.0  6.8 6.6 6.1  0.7T/6hr   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -67.28 -78.44  EMBC     N/A   75.0   22.40   88.80
2024OCT08 111020  7.0  916.9 140.0  6.9 7.3 7.4  0.5T/hour  ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -25.45 -77.72  EYE/P  -99 IR  75.0   22.43   88.79
2024OCT08 114020  7.0  916.9 140.0  6.9 7.2 7.2  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -25.94 -76.95  EYE/P  -99 IR  75.0   22.47   88.71
2024OCT08 121020  7.0  916.9 140.0  7.0 7.2 7.2  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -25.32 -77.04  EYE/P  -99 IR  75.0   22.48   88.69
2024OCT08 124020  7.0  916.9 140.0  7.0 7.2 7.2  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -25.55 -76.75  EYE/P  -99 IR  75.0   22.48   88.62
2024OCT08 131020  7.1  914.1 143.0  7.1 7.1 7.1  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -27.12 -76.51  EYE/P  -99 IR  58.2   22.49   88.60
2024OCT08 134020  7.1  914.2 143.0  7.0 6.5 5.3  0.5T/hour  ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -71.99 -76.10  UNIFRM   N/A   58.2   22.23   88.47
2024OCT08 141020  7.1  914.1 143.0  7.0 6.5 6.5  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -54.89 -74.76  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.43   88.60
2024OCT08 144020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.8 6.5 5.2  0.5T/hour  ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -58.42 -73.95  UNIFRM   N/A   58.2   22.47   88.55
2024OCT08 151020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.7 6.3 6.3  NO LIMIT   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -49.48 -73.51  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.50   88.45
2024OCT08 154020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.6 6.6 6.6  NO LIMIT   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -34.11 -74.37  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.41   88.52
2024OCT08 161020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.6 6.7 6.7  NO LIMIT   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -36.56 -75.20  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.45   88.37
2024OCT08 165020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.5 6.6 6.6  NO LIMIT   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -38.67 -74.51  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.46   88.36
2024OCT08 171020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.5 6.9 6.9  NO LIMIT   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -14.98 -74.80  EYE     12 IR  58.2   22.45   88.24
2024OCT08 174020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.7 7.3 7.3  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF   3.62 -76.18  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.41   88.17
2024OCT08 181020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.8 7.5 7.5  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF   2.70 -77.16  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.43   88.05
2024OCT08 184020  7.1  915.1 143.0  7.0 7.4 7.4  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF   3.09 -76.69  EYE     13 IR  58.2   22.48   87.96

 

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

EPS mean track over Longboat Key late Thursday morning

That's every global model showing landfall within about 10 miles. Amazing agreement, this didn't used to happen. Even 10 years back models would have a much larger spread 36 hrs out.

[Scott747]

As the thread starts heating up again try not quoting any imagery with quick reactions. If your commenting and contributing to some meaningful type of analysis, then fine.

Otherwise it's going to disappear. There is already enough scrolling as it is.

[bairn]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, I’m just saying the worst truly catastrophic damage will be in the Sarasota area. 
Milton will also have a swath of inland wind damage right through Orlanda basically paralleling the developed interior of Florida. 

Lido Key and St Armands Circle in a bad spot

[DDweatherman]

damn, raw ADT’s up to 7.7 and 896mb. Sat imagery is top notch at the moment. 

[bdgwx]

11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

damn, raw ADT’s up to 7.7 and 896mb. Sat imagery is top notch at the moment. 

I'm not seeing that. I do see a raw of 7.6, final of 7.1 and CI of 7.1 with 915 mb estimate though. I'm looking at ADTv9.1 provided by UW-CIMSS. NOAA's ADTv9.0 is weaker.

[BYG Jacob]

2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

I'm not seeing that. I do see a raw of 7.6, final of 7.1 and CI of 7.1 with 915 mb estimate though. I'm looking at ADTv9.1 provided by UW-CIMSS. NOAA's ADTv9.0 is weaker.

What does CI mean on the ADT readout?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

I'm not seeing that. I do see a raw of 7.6, final of 7.1 and CI of 7.1 with 915 mb estimate though. I'm looking at ADTv9.1 provided by UW-CIMSS. NOAA's ADTv9.0 is weaker.

Yeah these satellite estimates only take you so far. I’m looking forward to recon.

[HKY_WX]

Euro has peak intensity around 10am tomorrow. Before leveling off and then slowly weakening tomorrow afternoon/evening on approach. So we may have another interesting night lol.

[Moderately Unstable]

Just a little bit of fun math. Currently the latest AF H hunter AC fix distance to the latest CIMISS ADT estimated center fix, is 455 nm. The WC-130J can fly at a maximum cruising speed of 360 kts, but will likely average closer to 300. The storm is moving NE, 9 knots at heading 52 degrees according to ADT, while most recent NHC motion is ENE. Integrating this together, assuming the ac has about 450 nm to fly, it's slightly under 1.5 hours ish from the first eye dropsonde (it took a few mins to compute this). This should put it there just before the 4PM CDT advisory.

 

Edit at 19:55Z - they're currently getting a small tailwind and are cruising at 360 kts, which is as noted close to max cruise speed. They're also now down to about 320(ish) nm, which, combined, leads to about the same arrival time (before the 4PM advisory).

[Reb]

Starting its NE jog on the last few frames

[BYG Jacob]

Sustained and very intense lightning in the eyewall

[HKY_WX]

It's definitely picking up a bit of pace and heading NE. It's feeling the tug of the trough. This is also apparent in the prominent banding to the NE. As it clears the Yucatan completely and enters the extremely deep/warm waters of the loop current, this where it could reach that 2nd max potential. This is where Katrina built up its immense surge. If you're in the cone and near the coastline, get da hell out. The west coast of FL may have never seen a storm like this one.

[goctican]

3 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

If you're in the cone and near the coastline, get da hell out. The west coast of FL may have never seen a storm like this one.

Coastline is somewhat relative. Can we please say, if local officials recommend or mandate it in your immediate area? Remember some of us are 50ft to 100ft above sea level in Clearwater. 

Edit: not pointing fingers, but it is very stressful to have others saying "get out!!!!!" My phone has been blowing up with texts from panickying people everywhere. Makes decision-making even harder, and we have family members we're responsible for.

[LakeNormanStormin]

Lows here in the Carolinas tonight dipping into the upper 40s. That front is certainly going to be tugging Milton more NE in the coming hours. You can really start to see it in the orientation of the moisture where Milton wants to go.

[bdgwx]

13 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

What does CI mean on the ADT readout?

 Raw T# - determined using the current scene

Adj T# - basic constraint limit rules applied

Fnl T# - adjusted value average of the last 3 hours

CI# - average of the last 3 hours and with the full suite of rules applied

ADT User Manual

[HKY_WX]

2 minutes ago, goctican said:

Coastline is somewhat relative. Can we please say, if local officials recommend or mandate it in your immediate area? Remember some of us are 50ft to 100ft above sea level in Clearwater. 

Definitely listen to the local officials, not some weenies on a message board.

[BYG Jacob]

1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

 Raw T# - determined using the current scene

Adj T# - with basic constraint limit rules applied

Fnl T# - adjusted value average of the last 3 hours

CI# - average of the last 3 hours and with the full suite of rules applied

ADT User Manual

I’m asking because that’s where 7.7 is coming from

[CoastalWx]

Early 18z tropical models tugged a bit south. Would put Port Charlotte to Fort Myers in a bad spot.

[beanskip]

So the 18z spaghetti plots have every single landfall south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. This is coming off a disastrous Helene performance that was far to the left of the global and hurricane models but which, inexplicably, the NHC hugged until the bitter end.

Will be interesting to see the official track at 5. 

[HKY_WX]

Here's a good map of the OHC with the track overlayed.

 

[csnavywx]

14 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Euro has peak intensity around 10am tomorrow. Before leveling off and then slowly weakening tomorrow afternoon/evening on approach. So we may have another interesting night lol.

It's going to be an interesting night of competing forces: increasingly favorable forcing from the entrance region of the subtropical jet vs. gradually increasing shear values.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, beanskip said:

So the 18z spaghetti plots have every single landfall south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. This is coming off a disastrous Helene performance that was far to the left of the global and hurricane models but which, inexplicably, the NHC hugged until the bitter end.

Will be interesting to see the official track at 5. 

Difference this time is the globals and the HWRF are not in disagreement as much from those models as they were last time