Major Hurricane Milton

[kayman]

1 hour ago, Doc Jon said:

Hey, what's the story on tornados as this thing unravels over Florida in a couple of days?  Has there been any discussion of the threat?

Here's official severe weather outlook for Hurricane Milton as the D3 outlook:

SPC AC 071915

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and
   Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday.

   ...Florida...

   Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
   to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening,
   before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday
   morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane
   will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the
   system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings
   indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to
   greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton.
   Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability,
   and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the
   rainbands of Milton.

   ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024

[gallopinggertie]

6 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

18Z GFS shifted S at landfall. Definitely seeing positive trend for now as far as Tamp Bay. Verbatim its still very bad for Tampa but its the trend I am looking at here.

What kind of surge would Tampa get with a landfall just to the south of the bay? 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

 

essentially none, the water would actually be getting pulled out the bay in this scenario. 

Let’s not get this twisted. The water depending on how far north the center gets and angle of approach is still pushing a lot of water NE into the bay. The difference is once the center crosses shore, if it’s south of the bay, it’ll be a blowout tide. Not before a pretty substantial surge, but one that wouldn’t continue to pile the water 

[Newman]

..CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD LOW... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...

7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 Location: 21.9°N 90.4°W Moving: E at 10 mph Min pressure: 897 mb Max sustained: 180 mph

[Kevin Reilly]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Let’s not get this twisted. The water depending on how far north the center gets and angle of approach is still pushing a lot of water NE into the bay. The difference is once the center crosses shore, if it’s south of the bay, it’ll be a blowout tide. Not before a pretty substantial surge, but one that wouldn’t continue to pile the water 

Yes, this talk is a very delicate dance in regard to final track and in some cases isn't know until the exact location of landfall in some cases case in point Hurricane Ian. The surge will be very impactful and most dangerous part of the storm in this scenario. 

[Wannabehippie]

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

..CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD LOW... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...

7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 Location: 21.9°N 90.4°W Moving: E at 10 mph Min pressure: 897 mb Max sustained: 180 mph

With that pressure drop of 12mb from the last advisory, I am surprised we did not see an uptick in the windspeeds.

 

[f2tornado]

6 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

18Z GFS shifted S at landfall. Definitely seeing positive trend for now as far as Tamp Bay. Verbatim its still very bad for Tampa but its the trend I am looking at here.

The 18z GFS mirrors the 12z ECMWF and is is spitting image of Project Phoenix 2.0. The 00z guidance may give us a better picture with a fresh set of obs and a fully bombed out storm.  Of course, what's good for Tampa, if it transpired, would be bad for Fort Myers. 

[Nibor]

Two different recon planes, two passes, 903.5 and 902.5. Maybe Milton has plateaued?

[cptcatz]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

With that pressure drop of 12mb from the last advisory, I am surprised we did not see an uptick in the windspeeds.

 

Recon recorded wind speeds really don't support an increase.  These last two passes are actually a tad weaker than the first pass of the evening.  Could be flattening out now.

[purduewx80]

Yeah, double wind max evident on the east side now too. Bummer they weren’t in there when it likely peaked. 
 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

The 18z GFS mirrors the 12z ECMWF and is is spitting image of Project Phoenix 2.0. The 00z guidance may give us a better picture with a fresh set of obs and a fully bombed out storm.  Of course, what's good for Tampa, if it transpired, would be bad for Fort Myers. 

18z gfs initialized at 977 mb way off???  What do we make of that?  that has to have track implications correct short and long term perhaps?

[hawkeye_wx]

901 mb and 902 mb per the latest dropsondes from the two planes that just went through the eye.

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Yeah, double wind max evident on the east side now too. Bummer they weren’t in there when it likely peaked. 
 

We can’t speculate too much, but given satellite we didn’t miss peak by much. Maybe low-mid 890’s and some possibility of 190-195mph winds given that pressure and how compact the core is. 

[DDweatherman]

Will be interesting to see if the HAFS runs tonight re bomb this post EWRC like the earlier today runs showed, including the 884mb frame. easy to discount that number for actual intensity, but they weren’t far off on the insane strength in this cycle. 

[f2tornado]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

18z gfs initialized at 977 mb way off???  What do we make of that?  that has to have track implications correct short and long term perhaps?

In the synoptic realm, 977 is plenty for synoptic/global models to handle. That's a banger in the mid-lats. It's the smaller less mature storms models tend to be "screwy" with. 

[HKY_WX]

There is a bit of dry air on the far eastern semi-circle over the Yucatan. I'm thinking we will level off tonight and the pressures might tick up. Sometimes this kinda thing will generate an ERC. My guess is we make another run tomorrow as it traverses the loop current. 

 

[RU848789]

39 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Not really official. Official would be Levi, Tomer, NHC staff, hurricane hunter staff, other experts on hurricanes. Not a diss - but since this forum is likely being viewed by thousands right now (not just members), some of whom are using this for decision making...be careful about official source citing. 

Agree with the intent of your post, but for the record Tomer had retweeted that one, but for some reason that part isn't included in the link that I posted, probably because posting Twitter links that actually embed properly is a black box, lol.  

https://x.com/burgwx

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Yeah, double wind max evident on the east side now too. Bummer they weren’t in there when it likely peaked. 
 

Given how high end it is structurally and the contracting inner eye, I wonder if we see a smoother merger of the concentric eyes rather than a major disruption. I’d place a bet on that right now which could make tomorrow even more likely to be the peak than tonight. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Given how high end it is structurally and the contracting inner eye, I wonder if we see a smoother merger of the concentric eyes rather than a major disruption. I’d place a bet on that right now which could make tomorrow even more likely to be the peak than tonight. 

Exactly what I’m thinking here. This ERC should be smooth and completes n time for Milton hitting the loop current. Milton’s actual peak likely to be achieved at that point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Imagine the surge this would build if it ever peaked higher tomorrow...20' into TB?

You guys are quick...meant '20..typo 

[csnavywx]

12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

There is a bit of dry air on the far eastern semi-circle over the Yucatan. I'm thinking we will level off tonight and the pressures might tick up. Sometimes this kinda thing will generate an ERC. My guess is we make another run tomorrow as it traverses the loop current. 

 

My base case as well. It's got a window for another peak out there just past the Yucatan before shear starts to become an issue.

[HKY_WX]

The eye is definitely going through some cycling right now just based off of the satellite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

My base case as well. It's got a window for another peak out there just past the Yucatan before shear starts to become an issue.

Yea, that is the window that I honed in on when I analyzed it on Saturday..I didn't expect it to pull a Wilma today. 

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Imagine the surge this would build if it ever peaked higher tomorrow...20' into TB?

I’ve never seen a cat 4 or 5 have a second peak after an ERC higher than the first from what I remember.  It’s probably happened at some point but it’s rare 

[LeesburgWx]

So we hit 180mph officially this evening. Let's say it peaked at at 185-190 before recon got in there. Let's then say Milton drops to like 165 mph during the ERC and then goes at another run over the Loop Current tomorrow and hits say 185mph. The surge already created that is being carried with it now and then combined with another peak run tomorrow (while much closer to Florida at that point), we are likely to see some exceptional surge numbers somewhere along the Florida coast upon landfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’ve never seen a cat 4 or 5 have a second peak after an ERC higher than the first from what I remember.  It’s probably happened at some point but it’s rare 

Yea, I have seen it a few times, but it is rare...I want to say that Dorian did it? Andrew did it.

[NavarreDon]

I’ve never seen a cat 4 or 5 have a second peak after an ERC higher than the first from what I remember.  It’s probably happened at some point but it’s rare 

Didn’t Ian do that?
(Edit it was @ 120mph prior to the ERC and then rapidly intensified to 160mph)

[Moderately Unstable]

23 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Yeah, double wind max evident on the east side now too. Bummer they weren’t in there when it likely peaked. 
 

Bummer indeed. But considering we did still get an official measure of 897 mb (pending post season re anal)... it's missing for posterity but, sub 900 is unusual. Milton is only surpassed now by Rita, for intensity in GOM. That's it. It is #2. If it goes to 930 and drops down again to 920 mb tomorrow it'd still be a c5. It's physically quite difficult to get this type of pressure. Today was a show, and it's unfortunate that it portends an unfortunate Floridian reality. It does seem likely to see re- strengthening after an EWRC with the favorable short term environment. What is going to be interesting is watching the overall angular momentum change there. Again, if we conserve energy and broaden the wind field, and we then begin to decrease pressure again and contract the new eye, the overall fetch of the storm should increase. 

 

//

Worked with Tomer years ago. Smart dude. Really happy he's done so well. 

 

 

 

 

 

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’ve never seen a cat 4 or 5 have a second peak after an ERC higher than the first from what I remember.  It’s probably happened at some point but it’s rare 

Maybe Isabel? Maria? 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Bummer indeed. But considering we did still get an official measure of 897 mb (pending post season re anal)... it's missing for posterity but, sub 900 is unusual. Milton is only surpassed now by Rita, for intensity in GOM. That's it. It is #2. If it goes to 930 and drops down again to 920 mb tomorrow it'd still be a c5. It's physically quite difficult to get this type of pressure. Today was a show, and it's unfortunate that it portends an unfortunate Floridian reality. It does seem likely to see re- strengthening after an EWRC with the favorable short term environment. What is going to be interesting is watching the overall angular momentum change there. Again, if we conserve energy and broaden the wind field, and we then begin to decrease pressure again and contract the new eye, the overall fetch of the storm should increase. 

 

//

Worked with Tomer years ago. Smart dude. Really happy he's done so well. 

 

 

 

 

 

We very much appreciate Tomer’s work so far at WPC/DTB. He’s a very intelligent person and very friendly. Probably one of the better follows for meteorological knowledge out there. Pretty awesome to have him on our team in some capacity.