Major Hurricane Milton

[Bryan63]

Looks like this is tracking towards landfall as the tide is coming in but luckily not at high tide which isn't until about 6am Thursday.

[cardinalland]

dropsonde above shows 185 mph winds at the surface and 215 mph winds at ~300 ft altitude in the NE eyewall.

[RU848789]

Question for folks/mets who know the model data initialization process.  The 18Z model runs (at least GFS, NAM and ICON), which I always thought initialized at 18Z (or 2 pm EDT now) with data from the 18Z time point or at least not much earlier than that, all show the t=0 point with Milton at about 970-980 mbar, when Milton had a pressure of 925 mbar at 12:00 pm EDT today...and it was even as low as 945 mbar at 8 am EDT.  Am I missing something?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Unreal.

I can't believe what went on today...colleague of mine made the astute observation using an altimetry of ocean currents that Milton may have availed itself of Helene's upwelling by feasting on very warm waters that wrapped around the Yucatan.

Final Call tomorrow. 

[cardinalland]

well first atlantic storm in the 800s since i started tracking.

[nycwinter]

the eye cant possibly shrink anymore..

[Random Chaos]

4nm eye. Wow.

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 22:41Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Milton
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 03

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 22:20:04Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.86N 90.67W
B. Center Fix Location: 93 statute miles (149 km) to the NW (312°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 899mb (26.55 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 24kts (From the SW at 28mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 4 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 160° at 135kts (From the SSE at 155.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 22:18:51Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 322° at 161kts (From the NW at 185.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the WSW (237°) of center fix at 22:21:09Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,030m (9,941ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy / Meteorological Accuracy (Undecoded): 0.01 / NA

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 161kts (~ 185.3mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the WSW (237°) from the flight level center at 22:21:09Z

[Eduardo]

2 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Levi pointing out that recon confirms an ERC is making an attempt at getting underway 

“[M]aking an attempt” is accurate though, IIRC, we have seen some storms during the past few seasons that featured double- and even triple-maxima without completing a full ERC and weakening accordingly.  Maybe someone else can chime in and double-check my memory though.

Either way, ERC’s remain incredibly hard to predict.

[RU848789]

I assume this is pretty official.  897 mbar.  

https://x.com/WxTca/status/1843424669959176251

 

[bdgwx]

That dropsonde had 24 kt winds so it's probably good for 897 mb.

[MUWX]

Will they do a special advisory to update pressure or not? Hoping to see a sub 900 advisory 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MUWX said:

Will they do a special advisory to update pressure or not? Hoping to see a sub 900 advisory 

It would probably be 897-898/185mph

[StantonParkHoya]

So it’ll complete ERC just in time to hit the loop current. Swell.

[NeonPeon]

20 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

There’s reason to believe it was even lower at peak given the recon left before the “best” satellite images. we’re blessed here to have them in at the peak times.

Not to be picky, but I think this looked better an hour or so ago. At the end of the day, they aren't going out to collect trivia for us.

[Nibor]

 

 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

[Amped]

Raw ADT up to 7.8. It still has a ways to go to beat ETAs record of 8.4.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Milton activating “Beast Mode”, we are likely very close to witnessing Milton’s true peak intensity being achieved.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

I have to believe the little oscillations I’m seeing in some of these loops is the precursor to an ERC.  
 

Edit to add: who knows at this point. I honestly thought the radar out of Mexico earlier showed the beginning of the band that would start it but that solid inner eye has really held on. I just remember Rita? Or Wilma? One of them. Started oscillating around before the ERC. 

[TPAwx]

HAFS-B landfalls early Thursday AM at Ft DeSoto/St Pete. 963

Heading out to evacuate inland.  Really appreciate the pros and advanced hobbyists that have and are providing analysis and explanations in a digestible and fact-based way.  It's been really helpful to understand and plan for Milton.

Best of luck to all in the path, get out of the way and be safe.

 

[steve392]

With it just grazing that land mass, will it have any affect on its strengthening? 

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

HAFS-B landfalls early Thursday AM at Ft DeSoto/St Pete. 963

Heading out to evacuate inland.  Really appreciate the pros and advanced hobbyists that have and are providing analysis and explanations in a digestible and fact-based way.  It's been really helpful to understand and plan for Milton.

Best of luck to all in the path, get out of the way and be safe.

 

Best to you.  Stay safe.  Good luck.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

4 minutes ago, steve392 said:

With it just grazing that land mass, will it have any affect on its strengthening? 

The friction will tighten the core/eye up and help Milton to continue to intensify

[dan11295]

4 minutes ago, steve392 said:

With it just grazing that land mass, will it have any affect on its strengthening? 

Milton is already basically very close to maximum potential intensity, really can't get much stronger.

[USCG RS]

Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The friction will tighten the core/eye up and help Milton to continue to intensify

I agree completely with this statement. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Milton is already basically very close to maximum potential intensity, really can't get much stronger.

Yes it can, pressure can easily drop into the 880’s now. Don’t think 190-200mph winds is out of the question because how healthy the CDO is and the fact the eye is only 2 to 4nm wide points to pressure continuing to tank. Until we see a double wind maxima which is the beginning of an ERC, Milton will continue to intensify.

[wxeyeNH]

I'm trying to visualize what it would look like meteorologically if you were in the middle of a 4nm eye?  Wind blowing 175 miles an hour in opposite directions only a couple miles to either side of you.  It wouldn't even look like CuB all around you as the towers would be too close.  Just a pinhole of clear skies overhead with darkness and noise all around?  I assume such a small eye has never been witnessed.  There are pictures within Michael's eye near Mexico Beach but the eye was much bigger.  4nm is amazingly small!  

[Moderately Unstable]

43 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

well first atlantic storm in the 800s since i started tracking.

Few bites from dropsonde(s) (ne eyewall and eye). (1) They dropped in ne eyewall, and the sonde rotated halfway around the eye. (2) Still dumping mass at the upper levels, cloud tops are still cooling still deepening, (3) mean LL wind in bottom 150 meters of eyewall is 200 mph. You can expect some of that is mixing to surface with this storm structure. Thus, I would presume they go with 190 mph on an update. You may have noticed that surface wind speeds shown on nhc products tend to be a blend of the lowest 150 meters, not specifically the surface wind speed. 

 

37 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I assume this is pretty official.  897 mbar.  

https://x.com/WxTca/status/1843424669959176251

 

Not really official. Official would be Levi, Tomer, NHC staff, hurricane hunter staff, other experts on hurricanes. Not a diss - but since this forum is likely being viewed by thousands right now (not just members), some of whom are using this for decision making...be careful about official source citing. 

 

37 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

“[M]aking an attempt” is accurate though, IIRC, we have seen some storms during the past few seasons that featured double- and even triple-maxima without completing a full ERC and weakening accordingly.  Maybe someone else can chime in and double-check my memory though.

Either way, ERC’s remain incredibly hard to predict.

This is a small storm at near the maximum possible pressure attainable. Modeling, experts, and forum Mets have all generally had consensus that we will see an ERC. One will occur (or more). In sum, once we reach the maximum possible intensity for a given eyewall and the inner eyewall contracts to maximum possible extent, the outer bands strengthen and close. The closure initiates an ERC. Given the environment and near-record pressure, forecasting an ERC is not a reach (it frankly doesn't require a lot of expertise). When this occurs, conservation of angular momentum applies. Storm wind radii increase, wind speed decreases, angular momentum remains conserved-(ish with some caveats). 

18 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

I have to believe the little oscillations I’m seeing in some of these loops is the precursor to an ERC.  
 

Edit to add: who knows at this point. I honestly thought the radar out of Mexico earlier showed the beginning of the band that would start it but that solid inner eye has really held on. I just remember Rita? Or Wilma? One of them. Started oscillating around before the ERC. 

ERCs take time. Many hours. So as Levi said in a post quoted a bit ago, even if there are minor hints of one, it isn't there yet. 

 

One last thought. "Historic" is a word I think that is overused in meteorology - this forum is guilty of it, I am guilty of it. But, I think where this is right now you have to just appreciate that this is history. Right now. You're watching it. It will be in tropical meteorology class references in the future.

[mappy]

Hey yall, help the mods out and think twice about your posts. If you’re saying “this should probably be in banter”, then stop and go to banter.

xoxo

ex staff 

[dan11295]

18Z GFS shifted S at landfall. Definitely seeing positive trend for now as far as Tamp Bay. Verbatim its still very bad for Tampa but its the trend I am looking at here.