NeonPeon Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, kdxken said: How much storm surge did they get with Helene when all was said and done? It was like 6-8 feet around tampa bay, I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 A lot of lightning in the core, although with these intense systems I don't know how much of an indicator of additional intensification this actually is at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: No, not a sign of ERC. Rather the opposite, sign that Milton is still bombing out and about to achieve its peak intensity. I don’t think that’s necessarily a given fact. The NHC explicitly stated an ERC could be beginning. Radar out of Mexico showed a most and a possible, partial, outer eye wall developing a couple hours ago. Eye seems to be cooling some as well. We shall see what recon finds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 5 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Eye seems to be shrinking, signs of ERC starting? Structure still looks excellent obviously. Shrinking eyes != ERC (though they can lead to one). An ERC is indicated by double wind maxima on recon or structural verification on Microwave Imagery typically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 16 minutes ago, gymengineer said: The NHC has used this phrasing multiple times now: "Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south." I wonder if this is related to the track adjustments during Helene where, at first, they did not prioritize the verbatim global model outputs showing a landfall in Taylor County, FL, and then a track through central GA instead of toward Atlanta. I copied and pasted that sentence so I could ask the EXACT SAME question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I am in awe of what we are witnessing right now. This may be the storm that changes Tampa Bay. Up to 15 foot storm surge being forecasted now. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 FWIW 18Z ICON was a bit south and weaker at LF 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 6 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: It was like 6-8 feet around tampa bay, I believe. Correct. We had 6.5' here in St. Pete and more like 8' out at the beaches. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, dan11295 said: FWIW 18Z ICON was a bit south and weaker at LF South of TB, similar placement as 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 6 minutes ago, MUWX said: I don’t think that’s necessarily a given fact. The NHC explicitly stated an ERC could be beginning. Radar out of Mexico showed a most and a possible, partial, outer eye wall developing a couple hours ago. Eye seems to be cooling some as well. We shall see what recon finds. Not seeing a double wind maxima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Not seeing a double wind maxima. Well we haven’t had recon for several hours to confirm if there is a double wind maxima or not. The fact that NHC mentioned it might already be underway is reason enough to not discount the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Is Milton the strongest GOM cane ever recorded ? tied for third strongest Atlantic cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: Well we haven’t had recon for several hours to confirm if there is a double wind maxima or not. The fact that NHC mentioned it might already be underway is reason enough to not discount the possibility. We will find out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 17 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Not the direction you want to see things trending From a water (areal flooding and storm surge inundation) standpoint, this is a deeply concerning situation. The current state of existing flooding: … coupled with the (experimental)flooding projections: …with the base and tidal inundation forecasts …lead to a pretty dire projection. People living in the areas represented in these maps need to heat the caution, warning and direction of emergency preparedness personnel in their region. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Recon is descending now. Should start getting data shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Wild seeing those pink colors slowly creep into a circle over the CDO. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Recon is descending now. Should start getting data shortly. Going to be a biblical run, eye still condensing and cloud tops still cooling 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, schoeppeya said: Going to be a biblical run, eye still condensing and cloud tops still cooling Yeah, we are going sub 900mb. This is a run for the money over the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Yeah, Milton is going black hole mode right now. NOAA2 cannot get there fast enough for some of us. Bizarrely ADT raw T# dropped to 7.4. Given the current satellite presentation...make that make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: Yeah, Milton is going black hole mode right now. NOAA2 cannot get there fast enough. Bizarrely ADT raw T# dropped to 7.4. Given the current satellite presentation...make that make sense. That method isn't really made for eyes that are 5 miles wide. GoM basin record in serious jeopardy. Been saying it since this morning elsewhere. Patricia, ERC or bust. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 9 minutes ago, Nibor said: Wild seeing those pink colors slowly creep into a circle over the CDO. Even if Milton simply maintains intensity, I would expect this to be the case given we are approaching diurnal max. Now if he strengthens further tonight... get ready for some even more impressive colors to show themselves soon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 each frame looks more impressive then the last... my God. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 18z GFS is over TB early AM Thursday. Landfall position is south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 22 minutes ago, Hotair said: Is Milton the strongest GOM cane ever recorded ? tied for third strongest Atlantic cane Tied for 6th strongest, but that's quibbling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, TPAwx said: 18z GFS is over TB early AM Thursday. Landfall position is south of 12z. Also maintains intensity well. Strong winds make it as far inland as Orlando but it does confine most of the rain to the West and North of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 18 minutes ago, Nibor said: Wild seeing those pink colors slowly creep into a circle over the CDO. Starting to have Hyian look, the strongest satellite recodrded storm in world history. Crazy thing Is, this is happening in a parT of the basin that shouldn’t support it. Absolutely top of the line storm. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 That imagery is starting to get some Haiyan vibes. Effing crazy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Tied for 6th strongest, but that's quibbling. Will be moving up that list. Only question is how far up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Scott747 said: That imagery is starting to get some Haiyan vibes. Effing crazy. Absolutely. Insane imagery 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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