Scott747 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Expect another special advisory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 12z GFS is about 55-60mb too weak right off the bat on this run…if the models cant initialize the intensity correct not sure how much we can trust its intensity forecasts in 48 hours either. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 you would think a slow moving intense hurricane would suffer some upwelling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 just keeps cranking it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: 924 extrap. 158 flight level. Lord bless it. Translates to about 140kts at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Not that I trust it, but SFMR got 176 kts unflagged on that pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 6 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: 924 extrap. 158 flight level. Lord bless it. Its about exactly Andrew's intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 another worst case for TBA from GFS -- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 GFS off Clearwater late Wednesday 955. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Looking very impressive on latest satellite images. Likely a Cat 5 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: GFS off Clearwater late Wednesday 955. Pressure too high on initialization so hard to say what it hits as-use globals for track but not intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 What effect is that blob of convection just to Milton's northeast that looks to be phasing with Milton having on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 925 mb / 160 mph on the 11:55 EDT update. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Wow that GFS op run is brutal not only for TB but up the Nature Coast and inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Category 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Milton is now the second category five hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Brian5671 said: Pressure too high on initialization so hard to say what it hits as-use globals for track but not intensity? You’re probably right. Sad to realize even if it hit at 955 that alone would be enough for a really dire situation in the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 As expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 What feature is supposed to cause Milton to degrade before reaching Tampa? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Brian5671 said: Pressure too high on initialization so hard to say what it hits as-use globals for track but not intensity? I would focus on whether or not the models are showing weakening upon approach (which GFS seems to be showing steady state). The globals can’t resolve the pressure of these systems completely accurately. I’m sure mets can chime in on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 7 minutes ago, Griizzcoat said: another worst case for TBA from GFS -- The initialization pressure is a joke, but it does show deepening in the 12-24 hours leading up to landfall. 965mb 00z Wednesday, 949mb 00z Thursday. Minimal dry air issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: What feature is supposed to cause Milton to degrade before reaching Tampa? Its a small storm so an ERC which appears likely in the next 18-24 hours likely takes it to a 2-3, it may then strengthen again slightly but probably remains a 3, it should then get impacted by shear. I think it comes in between 110-130mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: What feature is supposed to cause Milton to degrade before reaching Tampa? Dry air and shear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: What feature is supposed to cause Milton to degrade before reaching Tampa? I’m not sure, the shear direction aligns with the storm motion. The models probably just got it wrong. EDIT: I’d like to hear from a meteorologist about this, I understand Jet = dead storm lul, but most storms aren’t moving East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Please keep posts to meteorological discussion only. There is the banter thread to ask more general questions. Read more and post less. Thanks 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The GFS likely restrengthens Milton because it's passing over the Loop Current tomorrow night at the same time it gets a synoptic boost from the upper jet. This is entirely reasonable but ignores the uncertainties with timing of eyewall replacement cycles. The 00/06Z hurricane models trended towards less dry air getting into the circulation near landfall, but weakening is certainly possible given the large reservoir of continental air to the north and west. Too soon to say for sure. 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The symmetry is “beautiful” from a meteorological perspective but horrifying for those in its path. All we can do is hope for tremendous weakening before landfall (it will, just to what extent). No words. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-08-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 A 70 mph increase in 12 hours shows how conductive the gulf is for strong storms right now, can only hope the conditions responsible for such rapid intensification changes significantly enough to offset the extremely favorable ssts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrobuc Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 What are the chances this continues to move north beyond TPA and into the Cedar Key area? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, Retrobuc said: What are the chances this continues to move north beyond TPA and into the Cedar Key area? Models haven’t shifted much at all so I think it’s zeroed in on central florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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