Major Hurricane Milton

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Please open tweet for his full thread of thoughts. 

[TPAwx]

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/best-and-worst-case-hurricane-scenarios-for-tampa-bay/

Excellent piece from Dr. Masters.  Milton impact scenarios for TB, along with references to the more extreme/unimaginable outcomes from maxed out scenarios.

Was not thrilled to see this:  “The HAFS-B model outperformed all the other models for 3-, 4-, and 5-day forecasts last year.”

[Scott747]

6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The newest dropsonde says about 947 mb.

That's from about 30 min ago.

AF309 will be making a new pass in about 15 min.

 

[olafminesaw]

Any idea how the blob of convection to Milton's NE may have an effect? (if any)

[Radtechwxman]

Incredible amount of eyewall lightning 

[LeesburgWx]

First morning visible is out

 

[olafminesaw]

Gravity waves apparent as the sun rises

[Seminole]

16 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

All the hurricane models give TB a version of worst-case surge scenarios. 

HAFS-A puts me directly in the NE eyewall winds and surge, a few miles N of MacDill AFB and a block back from Hillsborough Bay.

Tyndall Airforce base is still rebuilding 6 years after Michael. SOCOM may have to relocate if this ends up being the worst case scenario. I have a friend who has been a civilian contractor for SOCOM and the buildings there have regular roof leaks all the dang time that have to be patched. Once the roof is compromised its all over. 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

[dan11295]

Hopefully the RI this morning scares people in harms way in surge zones to evac. For the short term, things to watch for besides model trends are potential current greater land interaction with the Yucatan and ERC's. Current motion is still South of due East.

[NJwx85]

Noticed that the HWRF is showing much less dry air intrusion on final approach than what was being modeled on Saturday.

[Scott747]

Nasty gradient on the way in for the latest eye penetration.

 

[David Reimer]

146 Knot FL wind with a 141 knot SFMR. Even ignoring the SFMR, that's 150-160 MPH surface wind. 

[bdgwx]

12Z SHIPS is out though I'm not sure how helpful it is during a round of ongoing RI. Anyway, it is initialized at 110 kts. The consensus between statistical and dynamic is 44%, 41%, and 29% for 25 kts, 30 kts, and 35 kts of additional intensification respectively. There is a > 50% of an ERC in the next 24 hours.

Shear and dry air are still expected to encroach and weaken the storm as it approaches land.

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  MILTON      AL142024  10/07/24  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND   110   119   122   122   121   114   110   105    97    84    64    52    43    36    34   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND      110   119   122   122   121   114   110   105    70    56    36    24    15   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM      110   122   128   129   126   120   116   110    70    59    46    34    24    16   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  TROP   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)         8    11    11    10     9    19    27    34    35    50    57    68    66    60    47   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     2     7     9     5     4     3     6     2     6     8     6    -3    -7     0   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        191   175   166   186   167   194   215   217   230   233   228   225   230   228   241   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         31.1  31.0  30.6  30.6  30.9  30.7  30.2  30.3  29.7  28.7  27.8  27.9  27.4  27.7  27.8   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   170   171   171   171   171   172   172   173   165   149   136   138   131   135   136   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)   0.4   0.6   0.6   0.8   0.9   1.4   1.6   2.2   1.3   0.8   0.7   0.3   0.7   0.2   0.2   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       7     9     8     8     8     8     6     5     2     1     2     3     2     3     4   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     66    61    60    57    56    47    46    50    53    48    40    33    34    32    37   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    22    25    26    27    28    29    34    36    36    33    28    25    20    13     8  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    74    73    80    86    91   101   101    85    86    75    84    45    40   -10   -19   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        19    26    35    15   -14     9    46    80    97    68    51    25     4    21     6   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV      -8   -16   -19   -13   -11   -13     1     4    -8   -34   -43   -58   -50   -59   -46   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        211   116    56    61    65   253   261    13    74   390   581   742   956  1231  1428   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     21.8  21.8  21.7  22.0  22.2  23.8  25.6  27.3  28.9  29.8  30.2  30.9  32.1 xx.x  xx.x    N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)     92.2  91.2  90.1  89.1  88.1  86.4  84.5  82.7  80.0  76.9  73.5  70.0  66.3 xxx.x xxx.x   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)     7    10    10    10    10    12    12    13    14    15    15    16    16    16    16   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      39    33    22    20    19    60    31    27    40    31    18    13     9     7     7   N/A   N/A

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  30% is   6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  27% is   2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  26% is   3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  19% is   4.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   8% is   3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  11% is   2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    29.7%   27.2%   26.0%   19.2%    7.5%   11.2%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:    30.3%   27.0%   26.3%   22.8%    6.8%   10.9%    1.9%    0.0%
    Bayesian:    20.3%    0.1%    0.4%    0.6%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:    26.8%   18.1%   17.6%   14.2%    4.8%    7.4%    0.6%    0.0%
       DTOPS:    78.0%   69.0%   64.0%   44.0%    6.0%   26.0%    5.0%    0.0%
       SDCON:    52.4%   43.5%   40.8%   29.1%    5.4%   16.7%    2.8%      0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON     10/07/2024  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)    29     34( 53)      34( 69)      30( 78)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)     18      2( 20)       5( 24)       5( 27)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

 

[Scott747]

941 on the latest pass. Still dropping like a rock.

[AccuChris]

Latest recon pass found lowest pressure around 941mb


.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

12Z SHIPS is out. It is initialized at 110 kts. The consensus between statistical and dynamic is 44%, 41%, and 29% for 25 kts, 30 kts, and 35 kts of additional intensification respectively. There is a > 50% of an ERC in the next 24 hours.

Shear and dry air are still expected to encroach and weaken the storm as it approaches land.

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  MILTON      AL142024  10/07/24  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND   110   119   122   122   121   114   110   105    97    84    64    52    43    36    34   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND      110   119   122   122   121   114   110   105    70    56    36    24    15   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM      110   122   128   129   126   120   116   110    70    59    46    34    24    16   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  TROP   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)         8    11    11    10     9    19    27    34    35    50    57    68    66    60    47   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     2     7     9     5     4     3     6     2     6     8     6    -3    -7     0   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        191   175   166   186   167   194   215   217   230   233   228   225   230   228   241   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         31.1  31.0  30.6  30.6  30.9  30.7  30.2  30.3  29.7  28.7  27.8  27.9  27.4  27.7  27.8   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   170   171   171   171   171   172   172   173   165   149   136   138   131   135   136   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)   0.4   0.6   0.6   0.8   0.9   1.4   1.6   2.2   1.3   0.8   0.7   0.3   0.7   0.2   0.2   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       7     9     8     8     8     8     6     5     2     1     2     3     2     3     4   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     66    61    60    57    56    47    46    50    53    48    40    33    34    32    37   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    22    25    26    27    28    29    34    36    36    33    28    25    20    13     8  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    74    73    80    86    91   101   101    85    86    75    84    45    40   -10   -19   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        19    26    35    15   -14     9    46    80    97    68    51    25     4    21     6   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV      -8   -16   -19   -13   -11   -13     1     4    -8   -34   -43   -58   -50   -59   -46   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        211   116    56    61    65   253   261    13    74   390   581   742   956  1231  1428   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     21.8  21.8  21.7  22.0  22.2  23.8  25.6  27.3  28.9  29.8  30.2  30.9  32.1 xx.x  xx.x    N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)     92.2  91.2  90.1  89.1  88.1  86.4  84.5  82.7  80.0  76.9  73.5  70.0  66.3 xxx.x xxx.x   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)     7    10    10    10    10    12    12    13    14    15    15    16    16    16    16   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      39    33    22    20    19    60    31    27    40    31    18    13     9     7     7   N/A   N/A

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  30% is   6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  27% is   2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  26% is   3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  19% is   4.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   8% is   3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  11% is   2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    29.7%   27.2%   26.0%   19.2%    7.5%   11.2%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:    30.3%   27.0%   26.3%   22.8%    6.8%   10.9%    1.9%    0.0%
    Bayesian:    20.3%    0.1%    0.4%    0.6%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:    26.8%   18.1%   17.6%   14.2%    4.8%    7.4%    0.6%    0.0%
       DTOPS:    78.0%   69.0%   64.0%   44.0%    6.0%   26.0%    5.0%    0.0%
       SDCON:    52.4%   43.5%   40.8%   29.1%    5.4%   16.7%    2.8%      0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON     10/07/2024  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)    29     34( 53)      34( 69)      30( 78)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)     18      2( 20)       5( 24)       5( 27)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

 

The shear direction continues to be problematic based on storm movement.  I am not sure 25kts at shear from 215 is going to be enough to have a meaningful weakening impact

[MuddyWx]

so.. Milton is currently ~10-20 mb stronger than predicted even on the most recent hurricane model runs. Is that delta larger than typical? Seems like a big difference..

[AccuChris]

so.. Milton is currently ~10-20 mb stronger than predicted even on the most recent hurricane model runs. Is that delta larger than typical? Seems like a big difference..

It will definitely be interesting to see what the 12z runs show later with this “new” info


.

[bdgwx]

Oof...that latest recon pass is nasty. 941 mb extrapolated, 143 kts FL, 146 kts SFMR, and a dropsonde of 127 kts at the surface. BTW that puts the FL to sfc conversion at 0.89.

[cptcatz]

Wow amazing recon data.  Gotta think a NHC upgrade is imminent.  Question is what will they put it as.  150 mph?  

[AccuChris]

Bingo


.

[Scott747]

939 on the NOAA pass.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is Opal deja vu from that early October morning....same time frame, too.

[beanskip]

0z UKMET had the storm at 993 mb at 10 am. What's 53 mb among friends?

[Cyclone-68]

Hopefully (maybe?) if it’s intensity is peaking right now,  it’ll slowly begin to weaken well before coastal impact 

[Buddy1987]

This is incredible to see and read the comments just to comprehend what this thing has managed to do in a small window of time. 

[dan11295]

12Z track guidance from tropical tidbits seems to be zeroing in on Sarasota area for LF. lot of the northern models shifted south. Better for Tampa Bay, although that entire coastal area is fairly densely populated.  Obviously still too early to rule out to a LF north of there yet.  Want to see the GFS start moving south.  Intensity guidance has 100-110 kt at LF, while on a weakening trend. 

[Seminole]

What is the top end potential with Milton ramping up so quickly. Sub 900? 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Hopefully (maybe?) if it’s intensity is peaking right now,  it’ll slowly begin to weaken well before coastal impact 

Still has to pass over the loop current. While I do not think this will continue to strengthen right into landfall we likely haven’t seen peak intensity yet.