Major Hurricane Milton

[NorthHillsWx]

Is there any cool pool left from Helen’s upwelling east of the loop current? 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I were in Tampa, I would be patently preying this barrels into the Yucatan.

This is going to carry tons of water, sort of like Katrina on a smaller scale, even once it unravels near landfall. 

Will also get much larger than this with a few EWRCs likely 

Tampa better pray it goes to their south. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is going to carry tons of water, sort of like Katrina on a smaller scale, even once it unravels near landfall. 

Will also get much larger than this with a few EWRCs likely 

Tampa better pray it goes to their south. 

My money is on over of just north, but hopefully not.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, Retrobuc said:

even though all the models are showing south?

 

False. Plenty go north.

[MN Transplant]

It seems like we have a couple of primary scenarios at this point, both really unpleasant.  One is that Milton gains latitude as it approaches FL and landfalls N of Tampa.  Given the forecast shear and dry air, it should be weakening at that point, but that won't matter for the surge.  The other is that Milton runs further south and isn't as affected by the dry air/shear.  This would be great for Tampa, but would be just horrible for Venice down to Fort Myers who are dealing with the aftermaths of Helene and Ian, respectively.

[TPAwx]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tampa better pray it goes to their south. 

Those of us in the path of the current 8-12 foot surge forecast (maybe higher?) prefer to avoid it, but it only shifts the devastation elsewhere.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The GFS is just insistent on Milton striking a bit north of Tampa. Every run has had it either north or striking directly so far.

[Scott747]

Latest NOAA pass confirms that the pressure is in the low to mid 940's. Definitely a remarkable drop overnight.

[Seminole]

1 minute ago, TPAwx said:

Those of us in the path of the current 8-12 foot surge forecast (maybe higher?) prefer to avoid it, but it only shifts the devastation elsewhere.

This is two to three times the storm surge Helene produced depending on where you are in the Tampa metroplex. Some homes unaffected by Helene may very well be affected by that kind of tidal surge. 

[jrips27]

7:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 21.8°N 92.2°W
Moving: ESE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[Scott747]

Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen.  The Air 
Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of 
120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to 
around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde 
report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special 
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 
110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now 
shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours.

The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous 
forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track 
forecast has been made through 36 hours.  Hurricane-force winds 
are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan, 
and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion.  
The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico 
to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun 
southward to Campeche.  The storm surge forecast has been increased 
to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast 
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[TheDreamTraveler]

33 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There will 100% be an ERC (or 2) before Florida. One thing about that is a larger hurricane will be much more immune to negative environmental factors, like shear and dry air intrusions. That might be the difference in global and hurricane models as it relates to pre landfall weakening 

Bigger hurricanes aren't always more immune to negative environmental factors. Sometimes it can be a detriment to their health allowing them to suck in more dry air and experience shear just due to how big they are. Smaller hurricanes can sometimes weasel their ways into smaller more favorable pocketed environments if they're lucky enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Bigger hurricanes aren't always more immune to negative environmental factors. Sometimes it can be a detriment to their health allowing them to suck in more dry air and experience shear just due to how big they are. Smaller hurricanes can sometimes weasel their ways into smaller more favorable pocketed environments if they're lucky enough.

Every system has a unique interaction with the surrounding envt. due to size and structural nuances....part of the reason why tropical systems are so difficult to forecast.

[Roger Smith]

I would say track will start to edge slightly north of due east to avoid a landfall on Yucatan but with some of the core scraping along the coast briefly. At some point probably 18-24 hrs from now, possible cat-5 intensity and 910 mb central pressure. Gradually reduces to cat-3 by landfall at a point 25-50 nw of Tampa Bay. 

 

[Bryan63]

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Is there any cool pool left from Helen’s upwelling east of the loop current? 

Can't find the post, but a few people were discussing this and quickly came to realization there were no remaining traces of Helene in that aspect. Water was plenty warm.

[dan11295]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

I would say track will start to edge slightly north of due east to avoid a landfall on Yucatan but with some of the core scraping along the coast briefly. At some point probably 18-24 hrs from now, possible cat-5 intensity and 910 mb central pressure. Gradually reduces to cat-3 by landfall at a point 25-50 nw of Tampa Bay. 

 

Going due east from here would keep the eyewall offshore I believe. if Milton keeps drifting S of east it's another matter. Better for Florida but obviously would be a very bad strike for northern Yucatan which due to its location basically never experiences strong hurricane conditions.

[Scott747]

Eye down to 10 mi.

I'd guess we might get pressure down into the upper 930's on one of the upcoming passes.

[schoeppeya]

HWRF continues to show worse case scenario for TB. Actually re-deepens in a few mb before landfall. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Granted its not going to make it as far north, but Milton reminds me of Opal....small system that bombed out to 150mph in the Bay of Campeche before rocketing NE and striking the panhandle as a cat 3 (125mph) just about exactly 29 years ago.

I remember Cantore was in the studio for that one.

[LeesburgWx]

For the northern Yucatan coast, this is such a rare occurrence for intensity and direction. The new NHC track has the core scraping the coastline. Wow

[jrips27]

Hail in the eyewall

https://x.com/mikefischerwx/status/1843258778403377483?s=46

[bobbutts]

Quote

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

 

[Radtechwxman]

Wonder if interaction with Yucatan will disrupt COC and cause dry air entrainment since it's a smaller storm. However it's a very well put together storm compared to Helene at the point it would interact with Yucatan. 

[TPAwx]

6 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

HWRF continues to show worse case scenario for TB. Actually re-deepens in a few mb before landfall. 

All the hurricane models give TB a version of worst-case surge scenarios. 

HAFS-A puts me directly in the NE eyewall winds and surge, a few miles N of MacDill AFB and a block back from Hillsborough Bay.

[RamblinRed]

Am I looking at this right, that most of the models are now showing a night time landfall with the tide rising toward high tide?

That would seem to be a very bad combination if that is what ultimately happened.

[SnowGoose69]

What I never understood about small storms with small eyes is why they rapidly strengthen but that they seem to weaken way more following ERCs than big storms do.  You’d think it would be the opposite of that but you think of Patricia or Opal those things straight up got killed by ERCs.  Then again both also made landfall soon after so we don’t really know if they had another day or two over water what might have happened 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

What I never understood about small storms with small eyes is why they rapidly strengthen but that they seem to weaken way more following ERCs than big storms do.  You’d think it would be the opposite of that but you think of Patricia or Opal those things straight up got killed by ERCs.  Then again both also made landfall soon after so we don’t really know if they had another day or two over water what might have happened 

A tighter gradient will be more disrupted by a redistribution of the windfield than a more broad gradient.

[hawkeye_wx]

The newest dropsonde says about 947 mb.

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

For the northern Yucatan coast, this is such a rare occurrence for intensity and direction. The new NHC track has the core scraping the coastline. Wow

Is there much of a population there?

[Seminole]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Granted its not going to make it as far north, but Milton reminds me of Opal....small system that bombed out to 150mph in the Bay of Campeche before rocketing NE and striking the panhandle as a cat 3 (125mph) just about exactly 29 years ago.

I remember Cantore was in the studio for that one.

That was an evacuation mess for the panhandle with miles and miles of of stopped traffic on major road arteries. Opal was the impetus for reversing lanes of traffic on major road arteries going forward.