40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Globals don’t really want to weaken this into landfall. O6z GFS and 0z Euro are very similar. Not sold on the degree of weakening some of the hurricane models show. Also not sold on this missing the Yucatán, keeps heading SE The weakening on the hurricane models was always exageratred as was the max intensity. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Milton is under 22N with a ESE trajectory. The northern most point on the Yucatan appears to be around 21.6N give or take a fraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 14 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Was beginning to wonder how close Milton gets to the Yucatan? Any chance it actually makes landfall there? Obviously that would weaken the storm. forecast shows it turning east or ene later today or tonight-would be surprised with an actual LF there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 954 mb (28.17 inches). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect this change and update the forecast. SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Special update to get it to a major hurricane with the hurricane hunter recon data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Wow. Now this is rapid strengthening. That can be classified as the dreaded pinhole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Last 8 hours of IR to show trajectory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Wow, I didn't think the core would get organized that quickly... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Weenie ? But with Milton strengthening so quick and most likely still 48+ hours out, a EWRC seems almost a given but what are the chances it actually has time for 2 cycles, while this would naturally help lead to a lower max wind at land fall it would dramatically increase the size of the higher wind impacts. Thanks . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Hurricane models crush the globals again on short to medium term intensity guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 HAFS-B peaks at 902 and landfalls near Tarpon Springs night early AM hours Thursday. HMON peak 921 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Always impressive to see the outline of the eyewall revealed by GLM lightning data as the vortex rapidly deepens. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 6 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Weenie ? But with Milton strengthening so quick and most likely still 48+ hours out, a EWRC seems almost a given but what are the chances it actually has time for 2 cycles, while this would naturally help lead to a lower max wind at land fall it would dramatically increase the size of the higher wind impacts. Thanks . There will 100% be an ERC (or 2) before Florida. One thing about that is a larger hurricane will be much more immune to negative environmental factors, like shear and dry air intrusions. That might be the difference in global and hurricane models as it relates to pre landfall weakening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 06z HAFS-B is again an unraveling of Milton as it approaches FL, but a landfall just N of Tampa. HAFS-A also has weakening, but more gradual and is again just N of Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Hurricane models crush the globals again on short to medium term intensity guidance. Well, globals obviously don't have the type of resolution for that, but I think some of these hurricane models are overboard, though 920s is certainly feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Always impressive to see the outline of the eyewall revealed by GLM lightning data as the vortex rapidly deepens. Clearly with still a non-negligible southerly component to track. We have had the early part of the trajectory shift more south than consensus; it has acted to offset a big change in the landfall location despite the more aggressive recurves being modeled upon closest approach to Florida’s west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Clearly with still a non-negligible southerly component to track. We have had the early part of the trajectory shift more south than consensus; it has acted to offset a big change in the landfall location despite the more aggressive recurves being modeled upon closest approach to Florida’s west coast. The question is will it run into the Yucatan at this point? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, globals obviously don't have the type of resolution for that, but I think some of these hurricane models are overboard, though 920s is certainly feasible. It’s just night and day. The globals were showing a TS yesterday at this time frame, and we have a major. That’s my main point. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 My untrained eye says this is going to run into the Yucatán 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: My untrained eye says this is going to run into the Yucatán It won't. No model shows this. Will it get uncomfortably close and have some impact, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: It’s just night and day. The globals were showing a TS yesterday at this time frame, and we have a major. That’s my main point. I never consider globals in terms of absolute intensity.....just intensity trends. I think small, RI systems like this are especially ill suited to be resolved by globals. But I get your point....this is faster deveoping than anyone thought or any guidance modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 943 MSLP just recorded in this pass. Jesus... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 If I were in Tampa, I would be patently praying this barrels into the Yucatan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 10mb drop in between passes?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: The question is will it run into the Yucatan at this point? I wouldn’t bet; but looks very close. The thing with strong majors is they bend the environment; not the other way around. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Given the current structure, cat 5 isn’t only on the table, it might be a likelihood at this point. I’m usually conservative but this pinhole has that look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I were in Tampa, I would be patently preying this barrels into the Yucatan. Do you still think there is a chance this LF’s south of Tampa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Even if it hits the Yucatán it has plenty of time to regain strength. It’ll pass right over the loop current afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Modfan2 said: Do you still think there is a chance this LF’s south of Tampa? Of course....definite chance at this range and especially given the angle of approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: Even if it hits the Yucatán it has plenty of time to regain strength. It’ll pass right over the loop current afterwards. Yea, but I would take anything to disrupt the current momentum....you never know when the core of these small systems get disrupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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