Major Hurricane Milton

[Radtechwxman]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon has found no pressure drop over the last 1 hr, 16 min..... still 977 mb.  This plane is now done.

I'm really surprised at that given how the IR satellite appearance continues to improve and eye about to pop

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, hlcater said:

 

Keep in mind that core dynamics during RI and the atmospheric environment (ie atmospheric temps aloft) are also contributors to MPI, not just OHC.

Yea, I hate those charts...never use them....raw TCHP is one thing, but I hate MPI products.

[CamSE-Wx]

00z GFS continues to want to make landfall near Crystal River/Cedar Key early Thursday

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, CamSE-Wx said:

00z GFS continues to want to make landfall near Crystal River/Cedar Key early Thursday

It's an ugly run. Shear doesn't really get to it until very late. Track is very bad for TB. 

[Floydbuster]

Uh oh.

 

[WxWatcher007]

That GFS run is also quite impactful for coastal GA and part of SC. A lot of rain and strong onshore flow. 

[Hollie Maea]

Pinhole eye time.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's an ugly run. Shear doesn't really get to it until very late. Track is very bad for TB. 

GFS has the peak intensity Tuesday morning as Milton is just offshore of the Yucatan. Than as it turns NE, an ERC commences. Once it completes, Milton rapidly intensifies right before landfall and regains its lost intensity. Shear doesn’t get to it until right at landfall, very similar to what happened to Helene. This is becoming a common theme with Gulf hurricanes, particularly those landfalling Floridas west coast.

[Windspeed]

Uh oh.

You knew it wouldn't take long based on imagery from MW and those impressive recon scans for the eye to start clearing out.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

I honestly can’t remember the last time ive seen a hurricane go from a TS to a buzzsaw with a pinhole eye in 12 hours. This has been not only an impressive intensification process to witness but one that is certainly historic.

[Windspeed]

[Radtechwxman]

16 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

You knew it wouldn't take long based on imagery from MW and those impressive recon scans for the eye to start clearing out.

 

 

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I honestly can’t remember the last time ive seen a hurricane go from a TS to a buzzsaw with a pinhole eye in 12 hours. This has been not only an impressive intensification process to witness but one that is certainly historic.

Hence why I'm confused why recon was finding steady pressures before they left

[Scott747]

The eye is certainly clearing out but calling it a pinhole already is a little premature.

[hawkeye_wx]

The recon plane went in one more time and found 976 mb.  The track of the center has been south of east during this plane's flight.

[Nibor]

Both HAFS A and B track a bit further north of the Yucatan this run.

[WxWatcher007]

Towers going up on the northern edge of the eye. 

[GaWx]

0Z Icon: Sarasota (near 18Z/12Z runs) late afternoon Wed

0Z CMC: Pt Charlotte (a bit N of 12Z’s little S of Ft Myers) Fri morning

0Z GFS: just N of Crystal River (barely N of 18Z) very late Wed night 

0Z UKMET: Naples (good bit S of 12Z’s Ft Myers) Wed afternoon

Edit for Euro:

0Z Euro: Bradenton (barely S of 18Z/12Z’s Tampa) Wed evening

Edit: N to S:
GFS, Euro, Icon, CMC, UKMET

-GFS remains quite a N outlier
-UKMET is a pretty significant S outlier

[Windspeed]

The HAFS-B decides it doesn't particularly like the folks stationed at Isla Pérez on this run.

[Normandy]

16 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The HAFS-B decides it doesn't particularly like the folks stationed at Isla Pérez on this run.

Deepening is so rapid that the west eyewall is stronger than the east.  Tomorrow will be a very stressful day for Florida.  And this is on It’s way to cat 5 status

[Floydbuster]

 

[gustmouse]

5:45 EDT

 

[Floydbuster]

1 minute ago, gustmouse said:

5:45 EDT

 

Thanks for the info on our tireless workers!

[weatherCCB]

06z GFS with another bad run for Tampa.  

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, Normandy said:

Deepening is so rapid that the west eyewall is stronger than the east.  Tomorrow will be a very stressful day for Florida.  And this is on It’s way to cat 5 status

That is correct.

[jlewis1111]

Like I said yday gfs is locked in and like others once again was showing wind sheer now that is dissapating near land like it did with Helene. Gfs has been a beast lately. 

[TPAwx]

Reasonable forecast based on expected intensity, will be sensitive to changes in track 

[olafminesaw]

Pressure falling like a rock.  Winds up but not as dramatically

[NorthHillsWx]

Globals don’t really want to weaken this into landfall. O6z GFS and 0z Euro are very similar. Not sold on the degree of weakening some of the hurricane models show. Also not sold on this missing the Yucatán, keeps heading SE

[cptcatz]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Pressure falling like a rock.  Winds up but not as dramatically

I wonder if that blip in altitude was intentional when they punched through the eye or if they just got rocked by the eyewall. 

[dan11295]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Globals don’t really want to weaken this into landfall. O6z GFS and 0z Euro are very similar. Not sold on the degree of weakening some of the hurricane models show. Also not sold on this missing the Yucatán, keeps heading SE

Was beginning to wonder how close Milton gets to the Yucatan? Any chance it actually makes landfall there? Obviously that would weaken the storm.